Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Cboe Global Markets, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -44.9% to 5.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 39, DPO 24, DIO 60). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $111.84 per share, suggesting CBOE is overvalued by 60.3% at the current price of $281.58.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 917 | 962 | 1,016 | 1,045 | 1,101 | 1,128 |
| (−) Net Interest | 30 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 36 | 37 |
| (+) D&A | 58 | 55 | 51 | 50 | 46 | 47 |
| EBITDA | 1,005 | 1,048 | 1,100 | 1,129 | 1,183 | 1,212 |
| (−) Tax | 298 | 312 | 330 | 339 | 357 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 37 | 39 | 41 | 42 | 45 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 708 | 20 | 24 | 13 | 25 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -38 | 677 | 705 | 734 | 756 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 10.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 13,106 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.87% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -37 | 604 | 583 | 563 | 537 | 8,972 |
| Enterprise Value | 11,223 | |||||
| Projection Period | 2,251 | 20.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 8,972 | 79.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (532) | |||||
| Equity Value | 11,754 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 105M | |||||
| Fair Price | $112 | -60.3% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 6.8x | 8.8x | 10.8x | 12.8x | 14.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $87 | $104 | $121 | $139 | $156 |
| 6.9% | $83 | $100 | $117 | $133 | $150 |
| 7.9% | $80 | $96 | $112 | $128 | $143 |
| 8.9% | $77 | $92 | $107 | $122 | $138 |
| 9.9% | $74 | $89 | $103 | $118 | $132 |
Current price: $281.58. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.