Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Citigroup Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -46.1% to 3.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 164, DPO 1421, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (58% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $99.00 per share, suggesting C is fairly valued by 12.1% at the current price of $112.58.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -3,209 | -3,335 | -3,462 | -3,563 | -3,696 | -3,788 |
| (−) Net Interest | 34,120 | 35,462 | 36,809 | 37,883 | 39,294 | 40,277 |
| (+) D&A | 5,871 | 5,871 | 5,601 | 5,173 | 4,788 | 4,908 |
| EBITDA | 36,781 | 37,997 | 38,947 | 39,493 | 40,386 | 41,396 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 4,120 | 4,282 | 4,444 | 4,574 | 4,745 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -86,491 | -3,879 | -3,895 | -3,105 | -4,082 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 119,153 | 37,595 | 38,398 | 38,024 | 39,724 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 504,205 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.56% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 113,835 | 32,782 | 30,560 | 27,622 | 26,338 | 319,384 |
| Enterprise Value | 550,521 | |||||
| Projection Period | 231,137 | 42.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 319,384 | 58.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 366,224 | |||||
| Equity Value | 184,297 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 1863M | |||||
| Fair Price | $99 | -12.1% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.2x | 10.2x | 12.2x | 14.2x | 16.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $58 | $89 | $120 | $150 | $181 |
| 8.6% | $50 | $80 | $109 | $139 | $168 |
| 9.6% | $43 | $71 | $99 | $127 | $155 |
| 10.6% | $36 | $63 | $89 | $116 | $143 |
| 11.6% | $29 | $55 | $80 | $106 | $132 |
Current price: $112.58. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.