Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Blackstone Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.8% to -4.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 185, DPO 1697, DIO 60). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $179.81 per share, suggesting BX is undervalued by 62.6% at the current price of $110.60.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 12,211 | 15,085 | 16,267 | 11,015 | 10,484 | 10,746 |
| (−) Net Interest | 587 | 725 | 782 | 529 | 504 | 516 |
| (+) D&A | 140 | 177 | 191 | 212 | 244 | 250 |
| EBITDA | 12,938 | 15,987 | 17,240 | 11,756 | 11,232 | 11,513 |
| (−) Tax | 1,740 | 2,150 | 2,318 | 1,570 | 1,494 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 247 | 306 | 330 | 223 | 212 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -2,815 | 903 | 371 | -1,649 | -167 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 13,765 | 12,629 | 14,221 | 11,612 | 9,692 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.5x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 144,022 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.69% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 13,264 | 11,300 | 11,815 | 8,959 | 6,943 | 99,419 |
| Enterprise Value | 151,701 | |||||
| Projection Period | 52,281 | 34.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 99,419 | 65.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 11,313 | |||||
| Equity Value | 140,388 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 781M | |||||
| Fair Price | $180 | +62.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.5x | 10.5x | 12.5x | 14.5x | 16.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $150 | $173 | $195 | $218 | $240 |
| 6.7% | $145 | $166 | $187 | $209 | $230 |
| 7.7% | $139 | $159 | $180 | $200 | $221 |
| 8.7% | $134 | $153 | $173 | $192 | $212 |
| 9.7% | $129 | $147 | $166 | $185 | $203 |
Current price: $110.60. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.