Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, Builders FirstSource, Inc. has a fair value of $148.38 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $5.94. The current PEG ratio is 0.55.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 25.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $5.94 |
| Fair Value | $148.38 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $3.89 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $5.94 | +52.6% | 16 |
| FY2027E | $7.83 | +32.0% | 14 |
| FY2028E | $8.85 | +13.1% | 6 |
| FY2029E | $9.58 | +8.2% | 5 |
4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 25.3%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| FY2021 | $1.7B | $8.48 | — |
| FY2022 | $2.7B | $16.82 | +98.3% |
| FY2023 | $1.5B | $11.94 | -29.0% |
| FY2024 | $1.1B | $9.06 | -24.1% |
| FY2025 | $435.2M | $3.89 | -57.1% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -17.7%