Barrick Mining Corporation

Basic MaterialsGoldNYSE

$47.00

Market Cap: $78.74B

Barrick Mining Corporation (B) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 22:16

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$42.79 – $149.33	$65.88	+40.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$36.57 – $110.90	$53.03	+12.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$47.74 – $103.04	$73.09	+55.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$46.30 – $102.62	$70.28	+49.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$61.16 – $118.80	$78.73	+67.5%
EV/EBITDA	$54.19 – $173.02	$79.14	+68.4%
EV/Revenue	$40.06 – $81.42	$57.97	+23.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$29.02 – $29.02	$29.02	-38.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$20.14 – $27.95	$23.38	-50.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$7.11 – $18.38	$10.61	-77.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$65.88

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

+40.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Barrick Mining Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 35.2% to -20.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 31, DIO 88). At a 8.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $65.88 per share, suggesting B is undervalued by 40.2% at the current price of $47.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.79%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	7,786	8,950	8,803	8,985	7,169	7,420
(−) Net Interest	662	762	749	765	610	631
(+) D&A	3,113	3,746	4,424	5,073	5,731	5,932
EBITDA	11,561	13,458	13,976	14,823	13,511	13,983

(−) Tax	2,349	2,700	2,656	2,711	2,163	2,239
(−) CapEx	5,601	6,438	6,332	6,464	5,157	5,338
(−) ΔWC	1,668	629	-79	98	-982	-1,016
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,944	3,690	5,067	5,550	7,172	7,423

Terminal Value						140,288
WACC / Discount Rate	8.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,863	3,252	4,105	4,133	4,909	92,056

Enterprise Value	110,318
Projection Period	18,261	16.6%
Terminal Value	92,056	83.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,952)

Equity Value	112,270
(/) Outstanding Shares	1,704

Fair Price	$65.88

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
6.8%	$86	$95	$108	$125	$149
7.8%	$69	$75	$82	$91	$103
8.8%	$57	$61	$66	$72	$78
9.8%	$49	$52	$55	$59	$63
10.8%	$43	$45	$47	$50	$53

Current price: $47.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$53.03

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

+12.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Barrick Mining Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 35.2% to 4.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 31, DIO 88). At a 8.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (60% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $53.03 per share, suggesting B is fairly valued by 12.8% at the current price of $47.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.79%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	7,786	8,950	8,803	8,985	7,169	7,747	8,292	8,792	9,233	9,604	9,940
(−) Net Interest	662	762	749	765	610	659	706	748	786	817	846
(+) D&A	3,113	3,746	4,424	5,073	5,731	5,998	5,993	5,898	5,896	5,932	6,140
EBITDA	11,561	13,458	13,976	14,823	13,511	14,404	14,990	15,438	15,916	16,353	16,925

(−) Tax	2,349	2,700	2,656	2,711	2,163	2,337	2,502	2,653	2,786	2,897	2,999
(−) CapEx	5,601	6,438	6,332	6,464	5,157	5,572	5,965	6,324	6,642	6,908	7,150
(−) ΔWC	1,668	629	-79	98	-982	312	295	270	239	200	207
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,944	3,690	5,067	5,550	7,172	6,183	6,229	6,191	6,249	6,347	6,569

Terminal Value											124,154
WACC / Discount Rate	8.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,863	3,252	4,105	4,133	4,909	3,890	3,602	3,291	3,053	2,851	53,459

Enterprise Value	88,407
Projection Period	34,948	39.5%
Terminal Value	53,459	60.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,952)

Equity Value	90,360
(/) Outstanding Shares	1,704

Fair Price	$53.03

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
6.8%	$70	$76	$84	$95	$111
7.8%	$57	$61	$65	$71	$78
8.8%	$48	$50	$53	$56	$60
9.8%	$42	$43	$45	$47	$49
10.8%	$37	$38	$39	$40	$42

Current price: $47.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$73.08

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

+55.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Barrick Mining Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 35.2% to -20.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 31, DIO 88). At a 8.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $73.09 per share, suggesting B is undervalued by 55.5% at the current price of $47.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.79%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.48x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	7,786	8,950	8,803	8,985	7,169	7,349
(−) Net Interest	662	762	749	765	610	625
(+) D&A	3,113	3,746	4,424	5,073	5,731	5,874
EBITDA	11,561	13,458	13,976	14,823	13,511	13,848

(−) Tax	2,349	2,700	2,656	2,711	2,163	—
(−) CapEx	5,601	6,438	6,332	6,464	5,157	—
(−) ΔWC	1,668	629	-79	98	-982	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,944	3,690	5,067	5,550	7,172	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.5x
Terminal Value						158,978
WACC / Discount Rate	8.79%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,863	3,252	4,105	4,133	4,909	104,320

Enterprise Value	122,582
Projection Period	18,261	14.9%
Terminal Value	104,320	85.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,952)
Equity Value	124,534
(÷) Outstanding Shares	1704M
Fair Price	$73	+55.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.5x	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x	15.5x
6.8%	$56	$68	$80	$91	$103
7.8%	$54	$65	$76	$87	$99
8.8%	$52	$62	$73	$84	$94
9.8%	$50	$60	$70	$80	$90
10.8%	$48	$57	$67	$77	$87

Current price: $47.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$70.28

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

+49.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Barrick Mining Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 35.2% to 4.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 31, DIO 88). At a 8.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (70% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.5x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $70.28 per share, suggesting B is undervalued by 49.5% at the current price of $47.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.79%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.48x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	7,786	8,950	8,803	8,985	7,169	7,747	8,292	8,792	9,233	9,604	9,844
(−) Net Interest	662	762	749	765	610	659	706	748	786	817	838
(+) D&A	3,113	3,746	4,424	5,073	5,731	5,998	5,993	5,898	5,896	5,932	6,080
EBITDA	11,561	13,458	13,976	14,823	13,511	14,404	14,990	15,438	15,916	16,353	16,762

(−) Tax	2,349	2,700	2,656	2,711	2,163	2,337	2,502	2,653	2,786	2,897	—
(−) CapEx	5,601	6,438	6,332	6,464	5,157	5,572	5,965	6,324	6,642	6,908	—
(−) ΔWC	1,668	629	-79	98	-982	312	295	270	239	200	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,944	3,690	5,067	5,550	7,172	6,183	6,229	6,191	6,249	6,347	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.5x
Terminal Value											192,426
WACC / Discount Rate	8.79%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,863	3,252	4,105	4,133	4,909	3,890	3,602	3,291	3,053	2,851	82,857

Enterprise Value	117,804
Projection Period	34,948	29.7%
Terminal Value	82,857	70.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,952)
Equity Value	119,757
(÷) Outstanding Shares	1704M
Fair Price	$70	+49.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.5x	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x	15.5x
6.8%	$62	$72	$82	$92	$103
7.8%	$57	$67	$76	$85	$95
8.8%	$53	$62	$70	$79	$87
9.8%	$50	$57	$65	$73	$81
10.8%	$46	$53	$60	$67	$75

Current price: $47.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$78.73

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

+67.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Barrick Mining Corporation (B) has a fair value of $78.73 based on 9 comparable companies in the Gold industry.

P/E Valuation — Gold

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Barrick Mining CorporationB	80,093	16.0x	13.0x
Agnico Eagle Mines LimitedAEM	98,615	22.2x	14.2x
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.FCX	92,520	42.4x	24.1x
Vale S.A.VALE	70,659	27.9x	7.9x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	40.0x	45.1x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	55,398	51.8x	24.8x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,713	20.9x	18.7x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	45,809	40.5x	43.9x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	41,296	11.7x	7.9x
Kinross Gold CorporationKGC	37,736	15.8x	10.1x
Industry Median		27.9x	18.7x
(*) Profit after tax		4,993	6,182
Equity Value		139,374	128,956
(/) Outstanding shares		1,704	1,704
Fair Price		$82	$76

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$78.73

+67.5%

Fair Value

$79.14

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

+68.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Barrick Mining Corporation (B) has a fair value of $79.14 based on 10 comparable companies in the Gold industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Gold

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Barrick Mining CorporationB	80,093	7.4x	5.5x
Agnico Eagle Mines LimitedAEM	98,615	11.5x	8.0x
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.FCX	92,520	11.5x	10.6x
Vale S.A.VALE	70,659	5.9x	5.4x
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.APD	67,806	63.1x	59.6x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	30.3x	32.2x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	55,398	17.4x	17.1x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,713	9.9x	9.8x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	45,809	27.9x	29.5x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	41,296	8.2x	5.6x
Kinross Gold CorporationKGC	37,736	8.6x	6.0x
Industry Median		11.5x	10.2x
(*) EBITDA		10,509	14,206
= Enterprise Value		120,664	145,167
(-) Net Debt		-1,952	-1,952
Equity Value		122,616	147,120
(/) Outstanding shares		1,704	1,704
Fair Price		$72	$86

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$79.14

+68.4%

Fair Value

$57.97

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

+23.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Barrick Mining Corporation (B) has a fair value of $57.97 based on 10 comparable companies in the Gold industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Gold

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Barrick Mining CorporationB	80,093	4.6x	3.4x
Agnico Eagle Mines LimitedAEM	98,615	8.1x	5.6x
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.FCX	92,520	3.9x	3.6x
Vale S.A.VALE	70,659	2.2x	2.0x
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.APD	67,806	7.0x	6.6x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	24.9x	26.4x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	55,398	3.1x	3.0x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,713	5.5x	5.4x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	45,809	24.5x	26.0x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	41,296	4.9x	3.3x
Kinross Gold CorporationKGC	37,736	5.1x	3.6x
Industry Median		5.3x	4.5x
(*) Revenue		16,956	22,920
= Enterprise Value		89,904	103,775
(-) Net Debt		-1,952	-1,952
Equity Value		91,857	105,727
(/) Outstanding shares		1,704	1,704
Fair Price		$54	$62

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$57.97

+23.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$29.02

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

-38.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 1.1% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $29.02 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.63. The current PEG ratio is 2.16.

PEG Ratio

2.16Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 13.0 ÷ (4.9% + 1.1%) = 2.16

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	4.9%
Dividend Yield	+1.1%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.63
Fair Value	$29.02

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.93	—	—
FY2026E	$3.63	+23.8%	6
FY2027E	$4.23	+16.5%	6
FY2029E	$4.53	+7.2%	5
FY2030E	$3.72	-18.0%	3

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 4.9%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$2.0B	$39.56	—
FY2022	$432.0M	$8.46	-78.6%
FY2023	$1.3B	$0.72	-91.5%
FY2024	$2.1B	$1.22	+69.4%
FY2025	$5.0B	$2.93	+140.2%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -47.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$23.38

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

-50.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.8% and normalized earnings of $3.3B, the company has a fair value of $23.38 per share. The EPV range is $20.14 – $27.95 based on WACC sensitivity (7.3% – 10.3%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	3,331	3,331	3,331
(/) WACC	10.3%	8.8%	7.3%
Enterprise Value	32,365	37,887	45,681
(-) Net debt	-1,952	-1,952	-1,952
Equity Value	34,317	39,839	47,634
(/) Outstanding shares	1,704	1,704	1,704
Fair Price	$20.14	$23.38	$27.95

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$10.61

Market Price

$47.00

Upside / Downside

-77.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.9% and projected dividend growth of 5.0%, the fair value is $10.61 per share. The DDM range is $7.11 – $18.38 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.52

Dividend Yield

1.13%

Payout Ratio

17.8%

Dividend Coverage

5.61x

FCF Payout Ratio24.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)9.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.52	17.8%	+31.4%
2024	$0.40	32.5%	-0.3%
2023	$0.40	55.0%	-39.4%
2022	$0.66	264.6%	+80.5%
2021	$0.36	31.4%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.55	5.0%	0.9180	$0.50
2027	$0.58	5.0%	0.8426	$0.49
2028	$0.60	5.0%	0.7735	$0.47
2029	$0.63	5.0%	0.7101	$0.45
2030	$0.67	5.0%	0.6518	$0.43
Terminal Value	$0.69 DPS	3.5%		$8.27

PV of Projected Dividends$2.34

PV of Terminal Value$8.27

Fair Value per Share$10.61

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.0%	4.0%	5.0%	6.0%	7.0%
6.9%	$15	$16	$17	$18	$18
7.9%	$12	$12	$13	$14	$14
8.9%	$10	$10	$11	$11	$12
9.9%	$8	$9	$9	$9	$10
10.9%	$7	$7	$8	$8	$8

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.