Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 4.3% dividend yield, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. has a fair value of $39.58 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.95.
| EPS Growth RateForward | -5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | +4.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $4.95 |
| Fair Value | $39.58 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $7.39 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $4.95 | -33.1% | 9 |
| FY2027E | $5.12 | +3.4% | 10 |
| FY2028E | $5.61 | +9.7% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $5.55 | -1.1% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $5.48 | -1.3% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: -5.8%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
| FY2021 | $1.0B | $7.17 | — |
| FY2022 | $1.1B | $8.11 | +13.1% |
| FY2023 | $928.8M | $6.56 | -19.1% |
| FY2024 | $1.1B | $7.60 | +15.9% |
| FY2025 | $1.1B | $7.39 | -2.8% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.8%