ArcBest Corporation

ARCB

IndustrialsTruckingNASDAQ

$111.48

Market Cap: $2.48B

ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$29.30 – $233.10	$71.07	-44.4%
Growth Exit 10Y	$32.44 – $220.63	$71.63	-43.9%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$20.98 – $147.14	$78.61	-38.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$27.49 – $151.45	$79.79	-37.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$15.13 – $49.35	$46.56	-63.5%
EV/EBITDA	$62.68 – $92.07	$67.44	-47.2%
EV/Revenue	$156.94 – $382.95	$291.23	+128.0%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$117.38 – $117.38	$117.38	-8.1%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$42.38 – $75.48	$55.66	-56.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$7.82 – $17.73	$11.19	-91.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$71.07

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-36.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ArcBest Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 1.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 21, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (100% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $71.07 per share, suggesting ARCB is overvalued by 36.2% at the current price of $111.48.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	252
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	168
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	431

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	60
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	193
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	17
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-496	140	133	168	157	161

Terminal Value						3,165
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	2,196

Enterprise Value	2,197
Projection Period	1	0.0%
Terminal Value	2,196	100.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	1,630
(/) Outstanding Shares	23

Fair Price	$71.07

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$107	$126	$150	$183	$233
6.6%	$76	$87	$101	$118	$141
7.6%	$55	$62	$71	$82	$95
8.6%	$40	$45	$51	$58	$66
9.6%	$29	$33	$37	$42	$47

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$71.63

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-35.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ArcBest Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 2.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 21, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (77% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $71.63 per share, suggesting ARCB is overvalued by 35.7% at the current price of $111.48.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	251	256	262	268	276	283
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	13
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	178	184	189	193	197	202
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	440	452	463	473	485	497

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	60	61	63	64	66	68
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	192	196	201	206	211	217
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	19	22	25	28	32	33
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-496	140	133	168	157	169	172	174	175	176	180

Terminal Value											3,544
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	113	107	101	94	88	1,706

Enterprise Value	2,210
Projection Period	503	22.8%
Terminal Value	1,706	77.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	1,643
(/) Outstanding Shares	23

Fair Price	$71.63

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$113	$129	$150	$178	$221
6.6%	$81	$90	$101	$115	$134
7.6%	$59	$65	$72	$80	$90
8.6%	$44	$48	$52	$57	$63
9.6%	$32	$35	$38	$41	$45

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$78.57

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-29.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ArcBest Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 1.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 21, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (100% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $78.61 per share, suggesting ARCB is overvalued by 29.5% at the current price of $111.48.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

7.91x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	252
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	168
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	431

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	—
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	—
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-496	140	133	168	157	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						7.9x
Terminal Value						3,413
WACC / Discount Rate	7.58%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	2,368

Enterprise Value	2,369
Projection Period	1	0.0%
Terminal Value	2,368	100.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	1,802
(÷) Outstanding Shares	23M
Fair Price	$79	-29.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	3.9x	5.9x	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x
5.6%	$32	$61	$90	$118	$147
6.6%	$29	$57	$84	$111	$139
7.6%	$26	$52	$79	$105	$131
8.6%	$24	$49	$73	$98	$123
9.6%	$21	$45	$69	$92	$116

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$79.75

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-28.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ArcBest Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 2.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 21, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $79.79 per share, suggesting ARCB is overvalued by 28.4% at the current price of $111.48.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

7.91x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	251	256	262	268	276	283
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	13
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	178	184	189	193	197	202
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	440	452	463	473	485	497

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	60	61	63	64	66	—
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	192	196	201	206	211	—
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	19	22	25	28	32	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-496	140	133	168	157	169	172	174	175	176	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											7.9x
Terminal Value											3,930
WACC / Discount Rate	7.58%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	113	107	101	94	88	1,893

Enterprise Value	2,396
Projection Period	503	21.0%
Terminal Value	1,893	79.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	1,829
(÷) Outstanding Shares	23M
Fair Price	$80	-28.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	3.9x	5.9x	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x
5.6%	$51	$76	$101	$126	$151
6.6%	$44	$67	$90	$113	$136
7.6%	$38	$59	$80	$101	$122
8.6%	$33	$52	$71	$90	$109
9.6%	$27	$45	$62	$80	$97

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$46.56

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-58.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has a fair value of $46.56 based on 7 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

P/E Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
ArcBest CorporationARCB	2,557	42.5x	18.5x
Kennametal Inc.KMT	2,990	32.7x	28.2x
Pitney Bowes Inc.PBI	2,715	18.8x	41.6x
Danaos CorporationDAC	2,205	4.5x	4.8x
Costamare Inc.CMRE	1,991	5.8x	6.0x
Energizer Holdings, Inc.ENR	1,350	5.9x	5.9x
ICF International, Inc.ICFI	1,233	13.6x	9.6x
Gibraltar Industries, Inc.ROCK	1,191	12.4x	10.6x
Industry Median		12.4x	9.6x
(*) Profit after tax		60	138
Equity Value		743	1,393
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$32	$61

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$46.56

-58.2%

Fair Value

$67.44

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-39.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has a fair value of $67.44 based on 9 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
ArcBest CorporationARCB	2,557	11.8x	11.3x
Kennametal Inc.KMT	2,990	11.9x	11.8x
Pitney Bowes Inc.PBI	2,715	11.5x	8.2x
Danaos CorporationDAC	2,205	3.1x	3.1x
Werner Enterprises, Inc.WERN	2,062	9.0x	8.9x
Costamare Inc.CMRE	1,991	4.9x	4.6x
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.HTZ	1,796	7.9x	7.4x
Energizer Holdings, Inc.ENR	1,350	7.9x	7.7x
ICF International, Inc.ICFI	1,233	10.1x	9.9x
Gibraltar Industries, Inc.ROCK	1,191	7.5x	6.3x
Industry Median		7.9x	7.7x
(*) EBITDA		266	277
= Enterprise Value		2,103	2,124
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		1,536	1,557
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$67	$68

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$67.44

-39.5%

Fair Value

$291.23

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

+161.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has a fair value of $291.23 based on 9 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ArcBest CorporationARCB	2,557	0.8x	0.7x
Kennametal Inc.KMT	2,990	1.8x	1.8x
Pitney Bowes Inc.PBI	2,715	2.5x	1.8x
Danaos CorporationDAC	2,205	2.2x	2.2x
Werner Enterprises, Inc.WERN	2,062	0.9x	0.9x
Costamare Inc.CMRE	1,991	3.4x	3.1x
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.HTZ	1,796	2.3x	2.2x
Energizer Holdings, Inc.ENR	1,350	1.6x	1.5x
ICF International, Inc.ICFI	1,233	1.0x	0.9x
Gibraltar Industries, Inc.ROCK	1,191	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		1.8x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		4,010	4,172
= Enterprise Value		7,122	7,370
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		6,555	6,803
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$286	$297

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$291.23

+161.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$117.38

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

+5.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 0.4% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $117.38 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.70. The current PEG ratio is 0.50.

PEG Ratio

0.50Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 27.2 ÷ (53.7% + 0.4%) = 0.50

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	53.7%
Dividend Yield	+0.4%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.70
Fair Value	$117.38

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.62	—	—
FY2026E	$4.70	+79.2%	7
FY2027E	$7.43	+58.3%	7
FY2028E	$9.52	+28.1%	4

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 53.7%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$213.5M	$7.98	—
FY2022	$298.2M	$11.69	+46.5%
FY2023	$195.4M	$7.93	-32.2%
FY2024	$174.0M	$7.30	-7.9%
FY2025	$60.1M	$2.62	-64.1%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -24.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$55.66

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-50.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.6% and normalized earnings of $139.8M, the company has a fair value of $55.66 per share. The EPV range is $42.38 – $75.48 based on WACC sensitivity (6.1% – 9.1%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	140	140	140
(/) WACC	9.1%	7.6%	6.1%
Enterprise Value	1,539	1,843	2,298
(-) Net debt	567	567	567
Equity Value	972	1,276	1,731
(/) Outstanding shares	23	23	23
Fair Price	$42.38	$55.66	$75.48

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$11.19

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-90.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.0% and projected dividend growth of 12.1%, the fair value is $11.19 per share. The DDM range is $7.82 – $17.73 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.48

Dividend Yield

0.39%

Payout Ratio

18.3%

Dividend Coverage

5.48x

FCF Payout Ratio9.6%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.48	18.3%	+0.9%
2024	$0.47	6.5%	+1.2%
2023	$0.47	5.9%	+10.3%
2022	$0.42	3.6%	+39.7%
2021	$0.30	3.8%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.54	12.1%	0.9170	$0.49
2027	$0.60	12.1%	0.8409	$0.51
2028	$0.67	12.1%	0.7712	$0.52
2029	$0.76	12.1%	0.7072	$0.53
2030	$0.85	12.1%	0.6485	$0.55
Terminal Value	$0.87 DPS	2.5%		$8.59

PV of Projected Dividends$2.60

PV of Terminal Value$8.59

Fair Value per Share$11.19

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	10.1%	11.1%	12.1%	13.1%	14.1%
7.0%	$15	$16	$16	$17	$18
8.0%	$12	$13	$13	$14	$14
9.0%	$10	$11	$11	$12	$12
10.0%	$9	$9	$10	$10	$10
11.0%	$8	$8	$8	$9	$9

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$29.30 – $233.10	$71.07	-44.4%
Growth Exit 10Y	$32.44 – $220.63	$71.63	-43.9%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$20.98 – $147.14	$78.61	-38.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$27.49 – $151.45	$79.79	-37.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$15.13 – $49.35	$46.56	-63.5%
EV/EBITDA	$62.68 – $92.07	$67.44	-47.2%
EV/Revenue	$156.94 – $382.95	$291.23	+128.0%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$117.38 – $117.38	$117.38	-8.1%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$42.38 – $75.48	$55.66	-56.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$7.82 – $17.73	$11.19	-91.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$71.07

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-36.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	252
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	168
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	431

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	60
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	193
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	17
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-496	140	133	168	157	161

Terminal Value						3,165
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	2,196

Enterprise Value	2,197
Projection Period	1	0.0%
Terminal Value	2,196	100.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	1,630
(/) Outstanding Shares	23

Fair Price	$71.07

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$107	$126	$150	$183	$233
6.6%	$76	$87	$101	$118	$141
7.6%	$55	$62	$71	$82	$95
8.6%	$40	$45	$51	$58	$66
9.6%	$29	$33	$37	$42	$47

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$71.63

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-35.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	251	256	262	268	276	283
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	13
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	178	184	189	193	197	202
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	440	452	463	473	485	497

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	60	61	63	64	66	68
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	192	196	201	206	211	217
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	19	22	25	28	32	33
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-496	140	133	168	157	169	172	174	175	176	180

Terminal Value											3,544
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	113	107	101	94	88	1,706

Enterprise Value	2,210
Projection Period	503	22.8%
Terminal Value	1,706	77.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	1,643
(/) Outstanding Shares	23

Fair Price	$71.63

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$113	$129	$150	$178	$221
6.6%	$81	$90	$101	$115	$134
7.6%	$59	$65	$72	$80	$90
8.6%	$44	$48	$52	$57	$63
9.6%	$32	$35	$38	$41	$45

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$78.57

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-29.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ArcBest Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 1.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 21, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (100% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $78.61 per share, suggesting ARCB is overvalued by 29.5% at the current price of $111.48.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

7.91x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	252
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	168
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	431

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	—
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	—
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-496	140	133	168	157	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						7.9x
Terminal Value						3,413
WACC / Discount Rate	7.58%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	2,368

Enterprise Value	2,369
Projection Period	1	0.0%
Terminal Value	2,368	100.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	1,802
(÷) Outstanding Shares	23M
Fair Price	$79	-29.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	3.9x	5.9x	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x
5.6%	$32	$61	$90	$118	$147
6.6%	$29	$57	$84	$111	$139
7.6%	$26	$52	$79	$105	$131
8.6%	$24	$49	$73	$98	$123
9.6%	$21	$45	$69	$92	$116

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$79.75

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-28.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ArcBest Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 2.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 21, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $79.79 per share, suggesting ARCB is overvalued by 28.4% at the current price of $111.48.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.58%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

7.91x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	212	225	239	243	246	251	256	262	268	276	283
(−) Net Interest	9	10	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	13
(+) D&A	166	183	184	174	164	178	184	189	193	197	202
EBITDA	388	418	434	428	421	440	452	463	473	485	497

(−) Tax	51	54	57	58	59	60	61	63	64	66	—
(−) CapEx	163	172	183	186	189	192	196	201	206	211	—
(−) ΔWC	670	52	61	16	16	19	22	25	28	32	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-496	140	133	168	157	169	172	174	175	176	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											7.9x
Terminal Value											3,930
WACC / Discount Rate	7.58%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-478	125	111	130	113	113	107	101	94	88	1,893

Enterprise Value	2,396
Projection Period	503	21.0%
Terminal Value	1,893	79.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	1,829
(÷) Outstanding Shares	23M
Fair Price	$80	-28.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	3.9x	5.9x	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x
5.6%	$51	$76	$101	$126	$151
6.6%	$44	$67	$90	$113	$136
7.6%	$38	$59	$80	$101	$122
8.6%	$33	$52	$71	$90	$109
9.6%	$27	$45	$62	$80	$97

Current price: $111.48. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$46.56

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-58.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has a fair value of $46.56 based on 7 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

P/E Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
ArcBest CorporationARCB	2,557	42.5x	18.5x
Kennametal Inc.KMT	2,990	32.7x	28.2x
Pitney Bowes Inc.PBI	2,715	18.8x	41.6x
Danaos CorporationDAC	2,205	4.5x	4.8x
Costamare Inc.CMRE	1,991	5.8x	6.0x
Energizer Holdings, Inc.ENR	1,350	5.9x	5.9x
ICF International, Inc.ICFI	1,233	13.6x	9.6x
Gibraltar Industries, Inc.ROCK	1,191	12.4x	10.6x
Industry Median		12.4x	9.6x
(*) Profit after tax		60	138
Equity Value		743	1,393
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$32	$61

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$46.56

-58.2%

Fair Value

$67.44

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-39.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has a fair value of $67.44 based on 9 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
ArcBest CorporationARCB	2,557	11.8x	11.3x
Kennametal Inc.KMT	2,990	11.9x	11.8x
Pitney Bowes Inc.PBI	2,715	11.5x	8.2x
Danaos CorporationDAC	2,205	3.1x	3.1x
Werner Enterprises, Inc.WERN	2,062	9.0x	8.9x
Costamare Inc.CMRE	1,991	4.9x	4.6x
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.HTZ	1,796	7.9x	7.4x
Energizer Holdings, Inc.ENR	1,350	7.9x	7.7x
ICF International, Inc.ICFI	1,233	10.1x	9.9x
Gibraltar Industries, Inc.ROCK	1,191	7.5x	6.3x
Industry Median		7.9x	7.7x
(*) EBITDA		266	277
= Enterprise Value		2,103	2,124
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		1,536	1,557
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$67	$68

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$67.44

-39.5%

Fair Value

$291.23

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

+161.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has a fair value of $291.23 based on 9 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ArcBest CorporationARCB	2,557	0.8x	0.7x
Kennametal Inc.KMT	2,990	1.8x	1.8x
Pitney Bowes Inc.PBI	2,715	2.5x	1.8x
Danaos CorporationDAC	2,205	2.2x	2.2x
Werner Enterprises, Inc.WERN	2,062	0.9x	0.9x
Costamare Inc.CMRE	1,991	3.4x	3.1x
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.HTZ	1,796	2.3x	2.2x
Energizer Holdings, Inc.ENR	1,350	1.6x	1.5x
ICF International, Inc.ICFI	1,233	1.0x	0.9x
Gibraltar Industries, Inc.ROCK	1,191	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		1.8x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		4,010	4,172
= Enterprise Value		7,122	7,370
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		6,555	6,803
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$286	$297

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$291.23

+161.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$117.38

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

+5.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.50Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 27.2 ÷ (53.7% + 0.4%) = 0.50

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	53.7%
Dividend Yield	+0.4%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.70
Fair Value	$117.38

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.62	—	—
FY2026E	$4.70	+79.2%	7
FY2027E	$7.43	+58.3%	7
FY2028E	$9.52	+28.1%	4

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 53.7%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$213.5M	$7.98	—
FY2022	$298.2M	$11.69	+46.5%
FY2023	$195.4M	$7.93	-32.2%
FY2024	$174.0M	$7.30	-7.9%
FY2025	$60.1M	$2.62	-64.1%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -24.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$55.66

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-50.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	140	140	140
(/) WACC	9.1%	7.6%	6.1%
Enterprise Value	1,539	1,843	2,298
(-) Net debt	567	567	567
Equity Value	972	1,276	1,731
(/) Outstanding shares	23	23	23
Fair Price	$42.38	$55.66	$75.48

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$11.19

Market Price

$111.48

Upside / Downside

-90.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.48

Dividend Yield

0.39%

Payout Ratio

18.3%

Dividend Coverage

5.48x

FCF Payout Ratio9.6%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.48	18.3%	+0.9%
2024	$0.47	6.5%	+1.2%
2023	$0.47	5.9%	+10.3%
2022	$0.42	3.6%	+39.7%
2021	$0.30	3.8%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.54	12.1%	0.9170	$0.49
2027	$0.60	12.1%	0.8409	$0.51
2028	$0.67	12.1%	0.7712	$0.52
2029	$0.76	12.1%	0.7072	$0.53
2030	$0.85	12.1%	0.6485	$0.55
Terminal Value	$0.87 DPS	2.5%		$8.59

PV of Projected Dividends$2.60

PV of Terminal Value$8.59

Fair Value per Share$11.19

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	10.1%	11.1%	12.1%	13.1%	14.1%
7.0%	$15	$16	$16	$17	$18
8.0%	$12	$13	$13	$14	$14
9.0%	$10	$11	$11	$12	$12
10.0%	$9	$9	$10	$10	$10
11.0%	$8	$8	$8	$9	$9