Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Aptiv PLC's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.3% to 5.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 71, DPO 72, DIO 54). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $107.66 per share, suggesting APTV is undervalued by 52.5% at the current price of $70.61.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 576 | 604 | 633 | 668 | 702 | 720 |
| (−) Net Interest | 305 | 321 | 336 | 355 | 372 | 382 |
| (+) D&A | 769 | 825 | 842 | 857 | 897 | 919 |
| EBITDA | 1,651 | 1,750 | 1,812 | 1,880 | 1,972 | 2,021 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 888 | 932 | 977 | 1,031 | 1,083 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 55 | 163 | 166 | 200 | 192 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 707 | 655 | 668 | 648 | 696 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 18.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 38,032 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.98% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 684 | 592 | 565 | 512 | 514 | 27,148 |
| Enterprise Value | 30,014 | |||||
| Projection Period | 2,866 | 9.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 27,148 | 90.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 6,243 | |||||
| Equity Value | 23,771 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 221M | |||||
| Fair Price | $108 | +52.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 14.8x | 16.8x | 18.8x | 20.8x | 22.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $92 | $106 | $120 | $135 | $149 |
| 6.0% | $86 | $100 | $114 | $128 | $141 |
| 7.0% | $82 | $95 | $108 | $121 | $134 |
| 8.0% | $77 | $89 | $102 | $114 | $127 |
| 9.0% | $72 | $84 | $96 | $108 | $120 |
Current price: $70.61. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.