Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Amphenol Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 35.6% to 20.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 78, DPO 62, DIO 91). At a 8.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (92% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 25.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $182.89 per share, suggesting APH is undervalued by 48.2% at the current price of $123.44.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 6,424 | 7,177 | 7,791 | 9,033 | 10,904 | 11,177 |
| (−) Net Interest | 389 | 434 | 472 | 547 | 660 | 677 |
| (+) D&A | 556 | 709 | 885 | 1,084 | 1,268 | 1,300 |
| EBITDA | 7,368 | 8,320 | 9,147 | 10,664 | 12,833 | 13,153 |
| (−) Tax | 1,358 | 1,517 | 1,647 | 1,909 | 2,305 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,128 | 1,260 | 1,368 | 1,586 | 1,915 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 2,873 | 979 | 799 | 1,616 | 2,433 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,009 | 4,564 | 5,333 | 5,552 | 6,179 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 25.5x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 335,410 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.86% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,925 | 4,018 | 4,314 | 4,126 | 4,218 | 219,448 |
| Enterprise Value | 238,049 | |||||
| Projection Period | 18,601 | 7.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 219,448 | 92.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 4,371 | |||||
| Equity Value | 233,678 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 1278M | |||||
| Fair Price | $183 | +48.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 21.5x | 23.5x | 25.5x | 27.5x | 29.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $171 | $186 | $200 | $215 | $230 |
| 7.9% | $163 | $177 | $191 | $205 | $220 |
| 8.9% | $156 | $169 | $183 | $196 | $210 |
| 9.9% | $149 | $162 | $175 | $188 | $201 |
| 10.9% | $143 | $155 | $167 | $180 | $192 |
Current price: $123.44. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.