Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project American Tower Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.4% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 33, DPO 35, DIO 60). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 22.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $335.39 per share, suggesting AMT is undervalued by 99.3% at the current price of $168.30.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 5,686 | 5,881 | 6,234 | 6,607 | 6,986 | 7,161 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,260 | 1,303 | 1,382 | 1,464 | 1,548 | 1,587 |
| (+) D&A | 1,664 | 1,749 | 1,748 | 1,784 | 1,885 | 1,932 |
| EBITDA | 8,610 | 8,934 | 9,364 | 9,855 | 10,420 | 10,680 |
| (−) Tax | 504 | 522 | 553 | 586 | 620 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,804 | 1,866 | 1,978 | 2,096 | 2,217 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 521 | 40 | 73 | 77 | 78 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 5,780 | 6,506 | 6,760 | 7,096 | 7,505 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 22.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 235,179 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.44% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 5,602 | 5,924 | 5,783 | 5,703 | 5,667 | 172,115 |
| Enterprise Value | 200,794 | |||||
| Projection Period | 28,679 | 14.3% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 172,115 | 85.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 43,489 | |||||
| Equity Value | 157,305 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 469M | |||||
| Fair Price | $335 | +99.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 18.0x | 20.0x | 22.0x | 24.0x | 26.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% | $302 | $338 | $375 | $412 | $448 |
| 5.4% | $285 | $320 | $355 | $390 | $424 |
| 6.4% | $269 | $302 | $335 | $369 | $402 |
| 7.4% | $254 | $285 | $317 | $349 | $381 |
| 8.4% | $239 | $270 | $300 | $330 | $361 |
Current price: $168.30. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.