Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project AMETEK, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.7% to 2.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 54, DPO 61, DIO 88). At a 8.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $145.74 per share, suggesting AME is overvalued by 31.4% at the current price of $212.44.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,680 | 1,775 | 1,884 | 1,975 | 2,031 | 2,082 |
| (−) Net Interest | 108 | 114 | 121 | 127 | 130 | 134 |
| (+) D&A | 129 | 138 | 144 | 152 | 164 | 168 |
| EBITDA | 1,917 | 2,027 | 2,149 | 2,254 | 2,325 | 2,383 |
| (−) Tax | 306 | 323 | 343 | 360 | 370 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 158 | 167 | 177 | 186 | 191 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 968 | 88 | 101 | 85 | 52 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 485 | 1,449 | 1,527 | 1,624 | 1,712 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 19.3x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 45,896 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.76% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 465 | 1,278 | 1,238 | 1,211 | 1,174 | 30,165 |
| Enterprise Value | 35,530 | |||||
| Projection Period | 5,366 | 15.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 30,165 | 84.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,825 | |||||
| Equity Value | 33,705 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 231M | |||||
| Fair Price | $146 | -31.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 15.3x | 17.3x | 19.3x | 21.3x | 23.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $130 | $145 | $160 | $175 | $189 |
| 7.8% | $124 | $138 | $153 | $167 | $181 |
| 8.8% | $119 | $132 | $146 | $159 | $173 |
| 9.8% | $113 | $126 | $139 | $152 | $165 |
| 10.8% | $109 | $121 | $133 | $146 | $158 |
Current price: $212.44. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.