Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Amcor plc's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 52.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 92, DIO 77). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $72.90 per share, suggesting AMCR is undervalued by 82.6% at the current price of $39.92.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,947 | 1,980 | 2,020 | 2,002 | 2,081 | 2,133 |
| (−) Net Interest | 433 | 440 | 449 | 445 | 463 | 474 |
| (+) D&A | 519 | 593 | 658 | 727 | 801 | 821 |
| EBITDA | 2,898 | 3,013 | 3,127 | 3,174 | 3,344 | 3,428 |
| (−) Tax | 399 | 406 | 414 | 411 | 427 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 839 | 853 | 871 | 863 | 897 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -649 | 46 | 57 | -26 | 112 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,309 | 1,707 | 1,785 | 1,926 | 1,909 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 11.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 40,177 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.65% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,236 | 1,550 | 1,520 | 1,538 | 1,429 | 29,125 |
| Enterprise Value | 37,397 | |||||
| Projection Period | 8,272 | 22.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 29,125 | 77.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 14,181 | |||||
| Equity Value | 23,216 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 319M | |||||
| Fair Price | $73 | +82.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 7.7x | 9.7x | 11.7x | 13.7x | 15.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6% | $49 | $66 | $83 | $100 | $117 |
| 5.6% | $45 | $62 | $78 | $94 | $111 |
| 6.6% | $42 | $57 | $73 | $89 | $104 |
| 7.6% | $38 | $53 | $68 | $83 | $98 |
| 8.6% | $35 | $49 | $64 | $78 | $92 |
Current price: $39.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.