Antero Midstream Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas MidstreamNYSE

$21.56

Market Cap: $10.24B

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 23, 2026 22:30

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$11.39 – $84.92	$22.70	+6.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$15.12 – $100.86	$28.42	+32.9%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$6.80 – $26.68	$15.88	-25.7%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$10.48 – $34.43	$20.61	-3.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$11.08 – $13.96	$13.65	-36.1%
EV/EBITDA	$7.33 – $12.87	$9.51	-55.5%
EV/Revenue	$0.72 – $12.47	$2.69	-87.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$27.51 – $27.51	$27.51	+28.7%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$4.80 – $11.06	$7.25	-66.1%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$13.55 – $37.10	$20.59	-3.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$22.70

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

+5.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Antero Midstream Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 17, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $22.70 per share, suggesting AM is fairly valued by 5.3% at the current price of $21.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.83%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	499	531	555	639	682	699
(−) Net Interest	229	244	255	294	314	321
(+) D&A	267	286	251	286	320	328
EBITDA	996	1,060	1,061	1,218	1,316	1,349

(−) Tax	132	140	146	169	180	185
(−) CapEx	323	344	360	414	442	453
(−) ΔWC	73	11	8	28	15	15
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	468	566	547	608	680	697

Terminal Value						16,101
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	452	512	464	483	505	11,572

Enterprise Value	13,989
Projection Period	2,417	17.3%
Terminal Value	11,572	82.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,042

Equity Value	10,947
(/) Outstanding Shares	482

Fair Price	$22.70

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$33	$39	$48	$61	$85
5.8%	$24	$27	$32	$37	$46
6.8%	$18	$20	$23	$26	$30
7.8%	$14	$16	$17	$19	$21
8.8%	$11	$12	$13	$15	$16

Current price: $21.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$28.42

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

+31.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Antero Midstream Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 17, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (70% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $28.42 per share, suggesting AM is undervalued by 31.8% at the current price of $21.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.83%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	499	531	555	639	682	724	764	801	836	866	887
(−) Net Interest	229	244	255	294	314	333	351	368	384	398	408
(+) D&A	267	286	251	286	320	376	406	436	468	493	505
EBITDA	996	1,060	1,061	1,218	1,316	1,433	1,521	1,606	1,687	1,757	1,801

(−) Tax	132	140	146	169	180	191	202	211	220	228	234
(−) CapEx	323	344	360	414	442	469	495	519	541	561	575
(−) ΔWC	73	11	8	28	15	14	13	13	11	10	10
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	468	566	547	608	680	759	811	863	914	958	982

Terminal Value											22,680
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	452	512	464	483	505	528	528	526	521	511	11,716

Enterprise Value	16,747
Projection Period	5,031	30.0%
Terminal Value	11,716	70.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,042

Equity Value	13,705
(/) Outstanding Shares	482

Fair Price	$28.42

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$43	$50	$60	$75	$101
5.8%	$31	$35	$39	$45	$54
6.8%	$24	$26	$28	$32	$36
7.8%	$19	$20	$22	$23	$26
8.8%	$15	$16	$17	$18	$20

Current price: $21.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$15.88

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

-26.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Antero Midstream Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 17, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (77% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $15.88 per share, suggesting AM is overvalued by 26.3% at the current price of $21.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.83%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.54x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	499	531	555	639	682	699
(−) Net Interest	229	244	255	294	314	321
(+) D&A	267	286	251	286	320	328
EBITDA	996	1,060	1,061	1,218	1,316	1,349

(−) Tax	132	140	146	169	180	—
(−) CapEx	323	344	360	414	442	—
(−) ΔWC	73	11	8	28	15	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	468	566	547	608	680	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						8.5x
Terminal Value						11,523
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	452	512	464	483	505	8,282

Enterprise Value	10,698
Projection Period	2,417	22.6%
Terminal Value	8,282	77.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,042
Equity Value	7,656
(÷) Outstanding Shares	482M
Fair Price	$16	-26.4%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.5x	6.5x	8.5x	10.5x	12.5x
4.8%	$9	$13	$18	$22	$27
5.8%	$8	$13	$17	$21	$25
6.8%	$8	$12	$16	$20	$24
7.8%	$7	$11	$15	$19	$23
8.8%	$7	$10	$14	$18	$21

Current price: $21.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$20.60

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

-4.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Antero Midstream Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 17, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $20.61 per share, suggesting AM is fairly valued by 4.4% at the current price of $21.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.83%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.54x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	499	531	555	639	682	724	764	801	836	866	887
(−) Net Interest	229	244	255	294	314	333	351	368	384	398	408
(+) D&A	267	286	251	286	320	376	406	436	468	493	505
EBITDA	996	1,060	1,061	1,218	1,316	1,433	1,521	1,606	1,687	1,757	1,801

(−) Tax	132	140	146	169	180	191	202	211	220	228	—
(−) CapEx	323	344	360	414	442	469	495	519	541	561	—
(−) ΔWC	73	11	8	28	15	14	13	13	11	10	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	468	566	547	608	680	759	811	863	914	958	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											8.5x
Terminal Value											15,380
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	452	512	464	483	505	528	528	526	521	511	7,945

Enterprise Value	12,976
Projection Period	5,031	38.8%
Terminal Value	7,945	61.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,042
Equity Value	9,934
(÷) Outstanding Shares	482M
Fair Price	$21	-4.4%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.5x	6.5x	8.5x	10.5x	12.5x
4.8%	$16	$20	$25	$30	$34
5.8%	$14	$19	$23	$27	$31
6.8%	$13	$17	$21	$24	$28
7.8%	$12	$15	$19	$22	$26
8.8%	$10	$14	$17	$20	$23

Current price: $21.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$13.61

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

-36.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) has a fair value of $13.61 based on 10 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Midstream industry.

P/E Valuation — Oil & Gas Midstream

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	10,396	25.1x	19.5x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,031	11.8x	7.7x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,148	12.9x	13.6x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,930	16.3x	12.5x
APA CorporationAPA	13,657	9.7x	7.9x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	13,632	30.2x	28.2x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,786	18.8x	9.1x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	10,045	15.6x	9.9x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	8,472	15.7x	19.6x
Hess Midstream LPHESM	7,889	13.2x	13.0x
South Bow CorporationSOBO	6,645	15.1x	18.0x
Industry Median		15.3x	12.8x
(*) Profit after tax		413	532
Equity Value		6,333	6,793
(/) Outstanding shares		482	482
Fair Price		$13	$14

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$13.61

-36.9%

Fair Value

$9.52

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

-55.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) has a fair value of $9.52 based on 10 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Midstream industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Midstream

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	10,396	14.3x	14.1x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,031	7.0x	6.7x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,148	7.5x	6.7x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,930	5.0x	4.2x
APA CorporationAPA	13,657	3.3x	3.4x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	13,632	16.4x	15.4x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,786	9.9x	8.0x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	10,045	8.5x	7.1x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	8,472	8.6x	9.1x
Hess Midstream LPHESM	7,889	9.4x	9.5x
South Bow CorporationSOBO	6,645	20.8x	17.2x
Industry Median		8.5x	7.6x
(*) EBITDA		937	955
= Enterprise Value		8,007	7,259
(-) Net Debt		3,042	3,042
Equity Value		4,965	4,217
(/) Outstanding shares		482	482
Fair Price		$10	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.52

-55.8%

Fair Value

$2.70

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

-87.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) has a fair value of $2.70 based on 10 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Midstream industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Midstream

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	10,396	10.7x	10.5x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,031	2.7x	2.6x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,148	0.5x	0.4x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,930	3.6x	3.1x
APA CorporationAPA	13,657	2.0x	2.1x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	13,632	13.7x	12.8x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,786	3.2x	2.6x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	10,045	3.8x	3.2x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	8,472	4.9x	5.2x
Hess Midstream LPHESM	7,889	7.2x	7.2x
South Bow CorporationSOBO	6,645	7.4x	6.1x
Industry Median		3.7x	3.1x
(*) Revenue		1,259	1,283
= Enterprise Value		4,674	4,010
(-) Net Debt		3,042	3,042
Equity Value		1,632	968
(/) Outstanding shares		482	482
Fair Price		$3	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$2.70

-87.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$27.51

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

+27.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 24.8% plus 4.3% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $27.51 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.11. The current PEG ratio is 0.78.

PEG Ratio

0.78Undervalued

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 19.3 ÷ (20.5% + 4.3%) = 0.78

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG highly applicable

PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	20.5%
Dividend Yield	+4.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	24.8%
Fair P/E	24.8x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.11
Fair Value	$27.51

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.86	—	—
FY2026E	$1.11	+29.1%	4
FY2027E	$1.25	+12.4%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 20.5%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$331.6M	$0.69	—
FY2022	$326.2M	$0.68	-1.4%
FY2023	$371.8M	$0.77	+13.2%
FY2024	$400.9M	$0.83	+7.8%
FY2025	$413.2M	$0.86	+3.6%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 5.7%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$7.25

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

-66.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.8% and normalized earnings of $446.2M, the company has a fair value of $7.25 per share. The EPV range is $4.80 – $11.06 based on WACC sensitivity (5.3% – 8.3%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	446	446	446
(/) WACC	8.3%	6.8%	5.3%
Enterprise Value	5,358	6,536	8,375
(-) Net debt	3,042	3,042	3,042
Equity Value	2,316	3,493	5,333
(/) Outstanding shares	482	482	482
Fair Price	$4.80	$7.25	$11.06

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$20.59

Market Price

$21.56

Upside / Downside

-4.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.6% and projected dividend growth of 5.3%, the fair value is $20.59 per share. The DDM range is $13.55 – $37.10 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.91

Dividend Yield

4.31%

Payout Ratio

106.3%

Dividend Coverage

0.94x

FCF Payout Ratio57.0%

DPS CAGR (4Y)-1.9%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.91	106.3%	+1.0%
2024	$0.90	109.2%	-0.1%
2023	$0.90	117.1%	+0.2%
2022	$0.90	132.7%	-8.2%
2021	$0.98	142.1%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.96	5.3%	0.9292	$0.89
2027	$1.01	5.3%	0.8634	$0.87
2028	$1.06	5.3%	0.8023	$0.85
2029	$1.12	5.3%	0.7455	$0.83
2030	$1.18	5.3%	0.6927	$0.82
Terminal Value	$1.21 DPS	2.5%		$16.33

PV of Projected Dividends$4.26

PV of Terminal Value$16.33

Fair Value per Share$20.59

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.3%	4.3%	5.3%	6.3%	7.3%
5.6%	$31	$32	$34	$35	$37
6.6%	$23	$25	$26	$27	$28
7.6%	$19	$20	$21	$22	$22
8.6%	$16	$16	$17	$18	$19
9.6%	$14	$14	$15	$15	$16

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.