Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 12.6% plus 1.4% dividend yield, Allegion plc has a fair value of $110.69 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $8.80. The current PEG ratio is 1.32.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.4% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 12.6% |
| Fair P/E | 12.6x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $8.80 |
| Fair Value | $110.69 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $7.44 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $8.80 | +18.3% | 9 |
| FY2027E | $9.48 | +7.7% | 9 |
| FY2028E | $10.23 | +7.9% | 5 |
3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 11.2%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $483.0M | $5.34 | — |
| FY2022 | $458.0M | $5.19 | -2.8% |
| FY2023 | $540.4M | $6.12 | +17.9% |
| FY2024 | $597.5M | $6.82 | +11.4% |
| FY2025 | $643.8M | $7.44 | +9.1% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 8.6%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.