Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.7% and normalized earnings of $11.1B, The Allstate Corporation has a fair value of $518.46 per share. The EPV range is $430.05 – $649.42 based on WACC sensitivity (6.2% – 9.2%).
| Low | Selected | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | 11,140 | 11,140 | 11,140 |
| (/) WACC | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| Enterprise Value | 120,647 | 144,049 | 178,713 |
| (-) Net debt | 6,812 | 6,812 | 6,812 |
| Equity Value | 113,835 | 137,237 | 171,901 |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 265 | 265 | 265 |
| Fair Price | $430.05 | $518.46 | $649.42 |
Earnings Power Value (EPV) estimates what a company is worth based on its current normalized earnings, assuming zero growth. It values the business as a perpetuity: Normalized Earnings / WACC. This gives a conservative floor value — the company's worth if it never grows but maintains its current profitability.
The model normalizes earnings by: (1) using sustainable gross margins (5-year average) applied to current revenue, (2) deducting maintenance-level operating expenses (average R&D + SG&A as % of revenue), (3) applying the average effective tax rate, and (4) subtracting the average excess of CapEx over D&A (net reinvestment needed to maintain current capacity).
EPV is most useful as a comparison anchor: if the market price is below EPV, the stock may be undervalued even without any growth. If market price exceeds EPV, the premium reflects growth expectations — which may or may not materialize.