Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Assurant, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.4% to 5.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 295, DPO 308, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (70% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1949.41 per share, suggesting AIZ is undervalued by 793.9% at the current price of $218.07.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 8,693 | 9,169 | 9,409 | 9,965 | 10,553 | 10,817 |
| (−) Net Interest | 133 | 141 | 144 | 153 | 162 | 166 |
| (+) D&A | 207 | 219 | 235 | 248 | 262 | 268 |
| EBITDA | 9,032 | 9,529 | 9,788 | 10,366 | 10,976 | 11,251 |
| (−) Tax | 1,754 | 1,851 | 1,899 | 2,011 | 2,130 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 250 | 264 | 271 | 287 | 304 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 1,720 | 451 | 227 | 525 | 556 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 5,308 | 6,964 | 7,392 | 7,543 | 7,987 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 8.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 99,792 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.61% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 5,117 | 6,238 | 6,153 | 5,835 | 5,741 | 69,149 |
| Enterprise Value | 98,233 | |||||
| Projection Period | 29,083 | 29.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 69,149 | 70.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 373 | |||||
| Equity Value | 97,860 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 50M | |||||
| Fair Price | $1949 | +794.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 4.9x | 6.9x | 8.9x | 10.9x | 12.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $1431 | $1772 | $2113 | $2454 | $2796 |
| 6.6% | $1378 | $1704 | $2029 | $2355 | $2680 |
| 7.6% | $1328 | $1639 | $1949 | $2260 | $2571 |
| 8.6% | $1281 | $1577 | $1874 | $2170 | $2467 |
| 9.6% | $1235 | $1519 | $1802 | $2085 | $2369 |
Current price: $218.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.