Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc.

AGH

Consumer CyclicalLeisureNASDAQ

$4.06

Market Cap: $56.24M

Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:24

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.35 – $2.11	$1.58	-58.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.32 – $2.14	$1.57	-58.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.06 – $2.90	$2.10	-44.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.57

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

-61.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -148.6% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) has an intrinsic value of $1.57 per share (range: $1.32 – $2.14).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-148.6%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.1%

D&A/Revenue

6.1%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	3	5.1%	-117.4%	-4	-4	(0)	-0	-4	-3
2027	3	4.9%	-86.1%	-3	-3	(0)	-0	-3	-3
2028	3	4.7%	-54.8%	-2	-2	(0)	-0	-2	-2
2029	4	4.5%	-23.6%	-1	-1	(0)	-0	-1	-1
2030	4	4.3%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2031	4	4.0%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2032	4	3.8%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2033	4	3.6%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2034	4	3.4%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2035	4	3.2%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-8

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4

PV of Terminal Value2

Enterprise Value-6

(–) Net Debt-28

Equity Value22

(÷) Shares Outstanding14

Fair Value per Share$1.57

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
7.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
8.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
9.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
10.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2

Current price: $4.06. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.58

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

-61.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-148.6%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.1%

D&A/Revenue

6.1%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	3	4.9%	-117.4%	-4	-4	(0)	-0	-4	-3
2027	3	4.5%	-86.1%	-3	-3	(0)	-0	-3	-3
2028	3	4.2%	-54.8%	-2	-2	(0)	-0	-2	-2
2029	4	3.8%	-23.6%	-1	-1	(0)	-0	-1	-1
2030	4	3.4%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-8

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3

PV of Terminal Value2

Enterprise Value-6

(–) Net Debt-28

Equity Value22

(÷) Shares Outstanding14

Fair Value per Share$1.58

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
7.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
8.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
9.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
10.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2

Current price: $4.06. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.10

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

-48.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) has a fair value of $2.10 based on 7 comparable companies in the Leisure industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Leisure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc.AGH	56	9.6x	—
American Outdoor Brands, Inc.AOUT	112	0.5x	0.6x
Tron Inc.TRON	80	14.7x	—
The InterGroup CorporationINTG	80	4.2x	—
United Homes Group, Inc.UHG	69	0.5x	—
Unifi, Inc.UFI	66	0.3x	0.3x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	18	0.5x	0.4x
Chanson International HoldingCHSN	3	0.2x	—
Industry Median		0.5x	0.4x
(*) Revenue		3
= Enterprise Value		1
(-) Net Debt		-28
Equity Value		29
(/) Outstanding shares		14
Fair Price		$2

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.35 – $2.11

$1.58

-58.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.32 – $2.14

$1.57

-58.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.06 – $2.90

$2.10

-44.7%

DCF Analysis

Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.57

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

-61.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-148.6%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.1%

D&A/Revenue

6.1%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	3	5.1%	-117.4%	-4	-4	(0)	-0	-4	-3
2027	3	4.9%	-86.1%	-3	-3	(0)	-0	-3	-3
2028	3	4.7%	-54.8%	-2	-2	(0)	-0	-2	-2
2029	4	4.5%	-23.6%	-1	-1	(0)	-0	-1	-1
2030	4	4.3%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2031	4	4.0%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2032	4	3.8%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2033	4	3.6%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2034	4	3.4%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2035	4	3.2%	7.7%	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-8

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4

PV of Terminal Value2

Enterprise Value-6

(–) Net Debt-28

Equity Value22

(÷) Shares Outstanding14

Fair Value per Share$1.57

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
7.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
8.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
9.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2
10.2%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$2

Current price: $4.06. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.10

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

-48.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc. (AGH) has a fair value of $2.10 based on 7 comparable companies in the Leisure industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Leisure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aureus Greenway Holdings Inc.AGH	56	9.6x	—
American Outdoor Brands, Inc.AOUT	112	0.5x	0.6x
Tron Inc.TRON	80	14.7x	—
The InterGroup CorporationINTG	80	4.2x	—
United Homes Group, Inc.UHG	69	0.5x	—
Unifi, Inc.UFI	66	0.3x	0.3x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	18	0.5x	0.4x
Chanson International HoldingCHSN	3	0.2x	—
Industry Median		0.5x	0.4x
(*) Revenue		3
= Enterprise Value		1
(-) Net Debt		-28
Equity Value		29
(/) Outstanding shares		14
Fair Price		$2