Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ameren Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 2.3% to 5.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 97, DIO 60). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (87% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $320.80 per share, suggesting AEE is undervalued by 195.4% at the current price of $108.60.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,308 | 3,521 | 3,734 | 3,786 | 3,981 | 4,080 |
| (−) Net Interest | 669 | 712 | 755 | 766 | 805 | 825 |
| (+) D&A | 3,842 | 4,048 | 4,340 | 4,613 | 4,772 | 4,891 |
| EBITDA | 7,820 | 8,281 | 8,829 | 9,165 | 9,558 | 9,796 |
| (−) Tax | 373 | 397 | 421 | 427 | 449 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 4,549 | 4,842 | 5,134 | 5,206 | 5,473 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -48 | 42 | 42 | 10 | 39 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,946 | 3,000 | 3,232 | 3,521 | 3,597 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 124,905 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.04% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,861 | 2,747 | 2,791 | 2,868 | 2,762 | 93,146 |
| Enterprise Value | 107,175 | |||||
| Projection Period | 14,029 | 13.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 93,146 | 86.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 19,817 | |||||
| Equity Value | 87,358 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 272M | |||||
| Fair Price | $321 | +195.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.7x | 10.7x | 12.7x | 14.7x | 16.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $239 | $298 | $357 | $417 | $476 |
| 5.0% | $226 | $282 | $339 | $395 | $451 |
| 6.0% | $213 | $267 | $321 | $374 | $428 |
| 7.0% | $201 | $253 | $304 | $355 | $406 |
| 8.0% | $190 | $239 | $288 | $337 | $386 |
Current price: $108.60. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.