Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM) has a fair value of $14.80 based on 5 comparable companies in the REIT - Mortgage industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adamas Trust, Inc.ADAM | 792 | 7.9x | — |
| TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | 657 | 14.7x | 7.5x |
| Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | 554 | 5.4x | 2.7x |
| TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc | 260 | 9.1x | 10.4x |
| NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 256 | 4.9x | — |
| Sachem Capital Corp. | 49 | 26.0x | 17.8x |
| Industry Median | 9.1x | 9.0x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 149 | ||
| Equity Value | 1,355 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 92 | ||
| Fair Price | $15 | ||
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0%, the company has a fair value of $6.23 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $0.78.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | -7.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $0.78 |
| Fair Value | $6.23 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.10 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $0.78 | -29.1% | 3 |
1Y Forward EPS CAGR: -29.1%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $193.2M | $1.52 | — |
| FY2022 | $-298.6M | $-3.60 | -336.8% |
| FY2023 | $-48.7M | $-0.99 | — |
| FY2024 | $-62.0M | $-1.14 | — |
| FY2025 | $149.0M | $1.10 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -7.8%
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 31.9% and projected dividend growth of 0.0%, the fair value is $2.66 per share. The DDM range is $2.50 – $3.04 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | $0.83 | — | -41.7% |
| 2023 | $1.41 | — | -12.1% |
| 2022 | $1.61 | — | +1.1% |
| 2021 | $1.59 | 78.5% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0.7582 | $0.63 |
| 2027 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0.5749 | $0.47 |
| 2028 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0.4359 | $0.36 |
| 2029 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0.3306 | $0.27 |
| 2030 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0.2506 | $0.21 |
| Terminal Value | $0.85 DPS | 2.5% | $0.72 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.9% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| 30.9% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| 31.9% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| 32.9% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| 33.9% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.