Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Airbnb, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.0% to 8.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 216, DPO 34, DIO 60). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $173.80 per share, suggesting ABNB is undervalued by 33.2% at the current price of $130.46.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,923 | 4,315 | 4,751 | 5,134 | 5,575 | 5,714 |
| (−) Net Interest | 231 | 254 | 280 | 303 | 329 | 337 |
| (+) D&A | 5 | 13 | 17 | 27 | 38 | 39 |
| EBITDA | 4,159 | 4,582 | 5,048 | 5,463 | 5,941 | 6,089 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 41 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 58 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 1,372 | 827 | 921 | 809 | 931 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,747 | 3,711 | 4,078 | 4,601 | 4,952 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 21.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 132,200 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.56% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,636 | 3,280 | 3,320 | 3,451 | 3,421 | 87,666 |
| Enterprise Value | 103,775 | |||||
| Projection Period | 16,109 | 15.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 87,666 | 84.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (4,493) | |||||
| Equity Value | 108,268 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 623M | |||||
| Fair Price | $174 | +33.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 17.7x | 19.7x | 21.7x | 23.7x | 25.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $160 | $175 | $189 | $203 | $217 |
| 7.6% | $154 | $168 | $181 | $195 | $208 |
| 8.6% | $148 | $161 | $174 | $187 | $200 |
| 9.6% | $142 | $155 | $167 | $179 | $192 |
| 10.6% | $137 | $148 | $160 | $172 | $184 |
Current price: $130.46. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.