XCHG Limited American Depositary Share

XCH

IndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryNASDAQ

$0.83

Market Cap: $52.41M

XCHG Limited American Depositary Share (XCH) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.31 – $7.15	$0.63	-44.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.66 – $4.49	$0.79	-29.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

XCHG Limited American Depositary Share (XCH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.63

Market Price

$0.83

Upside / Downside

-24.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -28.5% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.8%, XCHG Limited American Depositary Share (XCH) has an intrinsic value of $0.63 per share (range: $0.31 – $7.15).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-28.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.8%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	30	-28.9%	-20.8%	-6	-6	0	(0)	-3	-4	-4
2026	45	50.0%	-13.0%	-6	-6	0	(1)	6	-12	-11
2027	56	25.1%	-5.2%	-3	-3	0	(1)	4	-8	-7
2028	73	30.0%	2.5%	2	2	1	(2)	7	-6	-5
2029	95	30.0%	10.3%	10	10	1	(3)	9	-1	-1
2030	124	30.0%	10.3%	13	13	1	(5)	11	-2	-2
2031	155	25.2%	10.3%	16	16	1	(7)	12	-2	-1
2032	185	19.7%	10.3%	19	19	1	(9)	12	-1	-0
2033	212	14.1%	10.3%	22	22	2	(12)	10	2	1
2034	230	8.6%	10.3%	24	24	2	(14)	7	5	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-27

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)99

PV of Terminal Value48

Enterprise Value21

(–) Net Debt-16

Equity Value37

(÷) Shares Outstanding59

Fair Value per Share$0.63

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.8%	$-1	$-1	$1	$4	$7
6.8%	$-1	$-1	$1	$3	$5
7.8%	$-1	$-1	$1	$2	$4
8.8%	$-1	$-1	$0	$2	$3
9.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $0.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 39.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.79

Market Price

$0.83

Upside / Downside

-4.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), XCHG Limited American Depositary Share (XCH) has a fair value of $0.79 based on 8 comparable companies in the Industrial - Machinery industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Machinery

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
XCHG Limited American Depositary ShareXCH	49	0.8x	1.1x
Shimmick Corporation Common StockSHIM	137	0.3x	0.3x
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common StockBAER	119	2.7x	0.1x
Shengfeng Development LimitedSFWL	83	0.2x	—
NN, Inc.NNBR	74	0.6x	0.6x
CBAK Energy Technology, Inc.CBAT	72	0.5x	3.5x
Ocean Power Technologies, Inc.OPTT	68	10.7x	10.3x
RYTHM, Inc.RYM	54	5.9x	1.3x
Fuel Tech, Inc.FTEK	38	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		0.8x	0.9x
(*) Revenue		42	30
= Enterprise Value		35	27
(-) Net Debt		-16	-16
Equity Value		51	43
(/) Outstanding shares		59	59
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.79

-4.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.31 – $7.15

$0.63

-44.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.66 – $4.49

$0.79

-29.9%

DCF Analysis

XCHG Limited American Depositary Share (XCH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.63

Market Price

$0.83

Upside / Downside

-24.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-28.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.8%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	30	-28.9%	-20.8%	-6	-6	0	(0)	-3	-4	-4
2026	45	50.0%	-13.0%	-6	-6	0	(1)	6	-12	-11
2027	56	25.1%	-5.2%	-3	-3	0	(1)	4	-8	-7
2028	73	30.0%	2.5%	2	2	1	(2)	7	-6	-5
2029	95	30.0%	10.3%	10	10	1	(3)	9	-1	-1
2030	124	30.0%	10.3%	13	13	1	(5)	11	-2	-2
2031	155	25.2%	10.3%	16	16	1	(7)	12	-2	-1
2032	185	19.7%	10.3%	19	19	1	(9)	12	-1	-0
2033	212	14.1%	10.3%	22	22	2	(12)	10	2	1
2034	230	8.6%	10.3%	24	24	2	(14)	7	5	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-27

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)99

PV of Terminal Value48

Enterprise Value21

(–) Net Debt-16

Equity Value37

(÷) Shares Outstanding59

Fair Value per Share$0.63

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.8%	$-1	$-1	$1	$4	$7
6.8%	$-1	$-1	$1	$3	$5
7.8%	$-1	$-1	$1	$2	$4
8.8%	$-1	$-1	$0	$2	$3
9.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $0.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 39.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.79

Market Price

$0.83

Upside / Downside

-4.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Machinery

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
XCHG Limited American Depositary ShareXCH	49	0.8x	1.1x
Shimmick Corporation Common StockSHIM	137	0.3x	0.3x
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common StockBAER	119	2.7x	0.1x
Shengfeng Development LimitedSFWL	83	0.2x	—
NN, Inc.NNBR	74	0.6x	0.6x
CBAK Energy Technology, Inc.CBAT	72	0.5x	3.5x
Ocean Power Technologies, Inc.OPTT	68	10.7x	10.3x
RYTHM, Inc.RYM	54	5.9x	1.3x
Fuel Tech, Inc.FTEK	38	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		0.8x	0.9x
(*) Revenue		42	30
= Enterprise Value		35	27
(-) Net Debt		-16	-16
Equity Value		51	43
(/) Outstanding shares		59	59
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.79

-4.8%