TXO Partners, L.P.

TXO

EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionNYSE

$12.50

Market Cap: $690.53M

TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	—	N/A	—
Growth Exit 10Y	$40.17 – $289.95	$79.06	+528.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$4.07 – $82.19	$38.07	+202.6%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$14.58 – $144.80	$66.49	+428.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	—	N/A	—
EV/EBITDA	$0.54 – $11.05	$3.20	-74.6%
EV/Revenue	$8.56 – $20.78	$14.88	+18.3%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	—	N/A	—
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	—	N/A	—
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$79.06

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

+532.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project TXO Partners, L.P.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.2% to 5.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 24, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $79.06 per share, suggesting TXO is undervalued by 532.5% at the current price of $12.50.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	126	118	105	244	294	335	373	409	438	461	473
(−) Net Interest	13	12	10	24	29	33	37	41	44	46	47
(+) D&A	164	171	206	246	291	357	441	543	665	743	762
EBITDA	303	301	322	515	615	725	851	993	1,147	1,250	1,281

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	254	237	211	491	591	673	750	821	881	926	949
(−) ΔWC	69	-6	-10	102	37	30	29	26	22	17	17
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-19	70	120	-78	-13	23	72	145	244	307	315

Terminal Value											7,181
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-19	63	102	-62	-10	16	47	88	139	163	3,690

Enterprise Value	4,217
Projection Period	527	12.5%
Terminal Value	3,690	87.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	282

Equity Value	3,935
(/) Outstanding Shares	50

Fair Price	$79.06

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$123	$143	$171	$215	$290
5.9%	$87	$98	$111	$129	$155
6.9%	$65	$71	$79	$89	$101
7.9%	$51	$55	$59	$65	$72
8.9%	$40	$43	$46	$49	$54

Current price: $12.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$38.04

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

+204.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project TXO Partners, L.P.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.2% to 20.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 24, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (97% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $38.07 per share, suggesting TXO is undervalued by 204.6% at the current price of $12.50.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

4.65x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	126	118	105	244	294	302
(−) Net Interest	13	12	10	24	29	30
(+) D&A	164	171	206	246	291	299
EBITDA	303	301	322	515	615	630

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	254	237	211	491	591	—
(−) ΔWC	69	-6	-10	102	37	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-19	70	120	-78	-13	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						4.7x
Terminal Value						2,931
WACC / Discount Rate	6.89%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-19	63	102	-62	-10	2,101

Enterprise Value	2,175
Projection Period	74	3.4%
Terminal Value	2,101	96.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	282
Equity Value	1,893
(÷) Outstanding Shares	50M
Fair Price	$38	+204.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	1.0x	2.7x	4.7x	6.7x	8.7x
4.9%	$6	$22	$42	$62	$82
5.9%	$5	$21	$40	$59	$78
6.9%	$5	$20	$38	$56	$74
7.9%	$4	$19	$36	$53	$71
8.9%	$4	$18	$34	$51	$67

Current price: $12.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$66.44

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

+431.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project TXO Partners, L.P.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.2% to 5.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 24, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.49 per share, suggesting TXO is undervalued by 431.9% at the current price of $12.50.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

4.65x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	126	118	105	244	294	335	373	409	438	461	473
(−) Net Interest	13	12	10	24	29	33	37	41	44	46	47
(+) D&A	164	171	206	246	291	357	441	543	665	743	762
EBITDA	303	301	322	515	615	725	851	993	1,147	1,250	1,281

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	254	237	211	491	591	673	750	821	881	926	—
(−) ΔWC	69	-6	-10	102	37	30	29	26	22	17	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-19	70	120	-78	-13	23	72	145	244	307	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											4.7x
Terminal Value											5,959
WACC / Discount Rate	6.89%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-19	63	102	-62	-10	16	47	88	139	163	3,062

Enterprise Value	3,589
Projection Period	527	14.7%
Terminal Value	3,062	85.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	282
Equity Value	3,307
(÷) Outstanding Shares	50M
Fair Price	$66	+431.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	1.0x	2.7x	4.7x	6.7x	8.7x
4.9%	$22	$49	$81	$113	$145
5.9%	$20	$44	$73	$102	$131
6.9%	$18	$40	$66	$93	$119
7.9%	$16	$36	$60	$84	$109
8.9%	$15	$33	$55	$77	$99

Current price: $12.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.18

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

-74.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) has a fair value of $3.18 based on 8 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
TXO Partners, L.P.TXO	622	9.8x	9.0x
Borr Drilling LimitedBORR	1,495	6.9x	7.1x
Kosmos Energy Ltd.KOS	1,488	13.8x	11.5x
Teekay CorporationTK	1,116	0.8x	0.6x
HighPeak Energy, Inc.HPK	891	3.4x	3.8x
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.REPX	809	4.4x	3.6x
CrossAmerica Partners LPCAPL	795	9.0x	7.4x
Granite Ridge Resources, IncGRNT	772	2.5x	2.3x
Vitesse Energy, Inc.VTS	724	4.9x	5.3x
Industry Median		4.7x	4.5x
(*) EBITDA		92	100
= Enterprise Value		428	452
(-) Net Debt		282	282
Equity Value		146	170
(/) Outstanding shares		50	50
Fair Price		$3	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.18

-74.6%

Fair Value

$14.84

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

+18.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) has a fair value of $14.84 based on 8 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
TXO Partners, L.P.TXO	622	2.2x	2.0x
Borr Drilling LimitedBORR	1,495	3.2x	3.3x
Kosmos Energy Ltd.KOS	1,488	3.4x	2.9x
Teekay CorporationTK	1,116	0.2x	0.2x
HighPeak Energy, Inc.HPK	891	2.2x	2.5x
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.REPX	809	2.7x	2.1x
CrossAmerica Partners LPCAPL	795	0.5x	0.4x
Granite Ridge Resources, IncGRNT	772	1.7x	1.6x
Vitesse Energy, Inc.VTS	724	3.1x	3.4x
Industry Median		2.4x	2.3x
(*) Revenue		411	447
= Enterprise Value		1,004	1,037
(-) Net Debt		282	282
Equity Value		722	755
(/) Outstanding shares		50	50
Fair Price		$15	$15

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.84

+18.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Growth Exit 5Y

—

N/A

—

Growth Exit 10Y

$40.17 – $289.95

$79.06

+528.5%

EBITDA Exit 5Y

$4.07 – $82.19

$38.07

+202.6%

EBITDA Exit 10Y

$14.58 – $144.80

$66.49

+428.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

P/E

—

N/A

—

EV/EBITDA

$0.54 – $11.05

$3.20

-74.6%

EV/Revenue

$8.56 – $20.78

$14.88

+18.3%

▸ PEG

PEG Fair Value

—

N/A

—

▸ Earnings Power Value

Earnings Power Value

—

N/A

—

▸ Dividend Discount

Dividend Discount

—

N/A

—

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$79.06

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

+532.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	126	118	105	244	294	335	373	409	438	461	473
(−) Net Interest	13	12	10	24	29	33	37	41	44	46	47
(+) D&A	164	171	206	246	291	357	441	543	665	743	762
EBITDA	303	301	322	515	615	725	851	993	1,147	1,250	1,281

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	254	237	211	491	591	673	750	821	881	926	949
(−) ΔWC	69	-6	-10	102	37	30	29	26	22	17	17
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-19	70	120	-78	-13	23	72	145	244	307	315

Terminal Value											7,181
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-19	63	102	-62	-10	16	47	88	139	163	3,690

Enterprise Value	4,217
Projection Period	527	12.5%
Terminal Value	3,690	87.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	282

Equity Value	3,935
(/) Outstanding Shares	50

Fair Price	$79.06

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$123	$143	$171	$215	$290
5.9%	$87	$98	$111	$129	$155
6.9%	$65	$71	$79	$89	$101
7.9%	$51	$55	$59	$65	$72
8.9%	$40	$43	$46	$49	$54

Current price: $12.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$66.44

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

+431.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project TXO Partners, L.P.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.2% to 5.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 24, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.49 per share, suggesting TXO is undervalued by 431.9% at the current price of $12.50.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

4.65x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	126	118	105	244	294	335	373	409	438	461	473
(−) Net Interest	13	12	10	24	29	33	37	41	44	46	47
(+) D&A	164	171	206	246	291	357	441	543	665	743	762
EBITDA	303	301	322	515	615	725	851	993	1,147	1,250	1,281

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	254	237	211	491	591	673	750	821	881	926	—
(−) ΔWC	69	-6	-10	102	37	30	29	26	22	17	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-19	70	120	-78	-13	23	72	145	244	307	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											4.7x
Terminal Value											5,959
WACC / Discount Rate	6.89%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-19	63	102	-62	-10	16	47	88	139	163	3,062

Enterprise Value	3,589
Projection Period	527	14.7%
Terminal Value	3,062	85.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	282
Equity Value	3,307
(÷) Outstanding Shares	50M
Fair Price	$66	+431.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	1.0x	2.7x	4.7x	6.7x	8.7x
4.9%	$22	$49	$81	$113	$145
5.9%	$20	$44	$73	$102	$131
6.9%	$18	$40	$66	$93	$119
7.9%	$16	$36	$60	$84	$109
8.9%	$15	$33	$55	$77	$99

Current price: $12.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.18

Market Price

$12.50

Upside / Downside

-74.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
TXO Partners, L.P.TXO	622	9.8x	9.0x
Borr Drilling LimitedBORR	1,495	6.9x	7.1x
Kosmos Energy Ltd.KOS	1,488	13.8x	11.5x
Teekay CorporationTK	1,116	0.8x	0.6x
HighPeak Energy, Inc.HPK	891	3.4x	3.8x
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.REPX	809	4.4x	3.6x
CrossAmerica Partners LPCAPL	795	9.0x	7.4x
Granite Ridge Resources, IncGRNT	772	2.5x	2.3x
Vitesse Energy, Inc.VTS	724	4.9x	5.3x
Industry Median		4.7x	4.5x
(*) EBITDA		92	100
= Enterprise Value		428	452
(-) Net Debt		282	282
Equity Value		146	170
(/) Outstanding shares		50	50
Fair Price		$3	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.18

-74.6%