Tronox Holdings plc

TROX

Basic MaterialsChemicalsNYSE

$8.42

Market Cap: $1.34B

Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 09:31

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.88 – $62.26	$5.54	-34.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.54

Market Price

$8.42

Upside / Downside

-34.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -0.7% to a target of 13.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.1%, Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) has an intrinsic value of $5.54 per share (range: $0.88 – $62.26).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

7.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.7%

D&A/Revenue

6.5%

Tax Rate

40.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	3,041	4.9%	2.0%	62	37	197	(260)	-193	168	162
2027	3,224	6.0%	4.8%	155	93	209	(285)	77	-59	-53
2028	3,373	4.6%	7.6%	255	153	219	(308)	62	2	2
2029	3,201	-5.1%	10.3%	331	199	208	(302)	-72	176	138
2030	3,038	-5.1%	13.1%	398	239	197	(296)	-68	208	153

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)402

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)5,247

PV of Terminal Value3,855

Enterprise Value4,257

(–) Net Debt3,379

Equity Value878

(÷) Shares Outstanding158

Fair Value per Share$5.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
5.1%	$4	$19	$33	$48	$62
6.1%	$-5	$5	$15	$25	$34
7.1%	$-9	$-2	$6	$13	$20
8.1%	$-12	$-6	$-0	$6	$11
9.1%	$-13	$-9	$-4	$1	$6

Current price: $8.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 41.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.88 – $62.26

$5.54

-34.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

—

N/A

—

DCF Analysis

Tronox Holdings plc (TROX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.54

Market Price

$8.42

Upside / Downside

-34.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

7.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.7%

D&A/Revenue

6.5%

Tax Rate

40.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	3,041	4.9%	2.0%	62	37	197	(260)	-193	168	162
2027	3,224	6.0%	4.8%	155	93	209	(285)	77	-59	-53
2028	3,373	4.6%	7.6%	255	153	219	(308)	62	2	2
2029	3,201	-5.1%	10.3%	331	199	208	(302)	-72	176	138
2030	3,038	-5.1%	13.1%	398	239	197	(296)	-68	208	153

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)402

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)5,247

PV of Terminal Value3,855

Enterprise Value4,257

(–) Net Debt3,379

Equity Value878

(÷) Shares Outstanding158

Fair Value per Share$5.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
5.1%	$4	$19	$33	$48	$62
6.1%	$-5	$5	$15	$25	$34
7.1%	$-9	$-2	$6	$13	$20
8.1%	$-12	$-6	$-0	$6	$11
9.1%	$-13	$-9	$-4	$1	$6

Current price: $8.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 41.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.