Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.

Consumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersNYSE

$42.74

Market Cap: $3.21B

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 22:00

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$17.16 – $121.41	$28.44	-33.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$19.14 – $129.74	$31.22	-26.9%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$15.17 – $32.45	$23.08	-46.0%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$17.00 – $36.65	$25.34	-40.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$26.87 – $35.08	$24.63	-42.4%
EV/EBITDA	$18.64 – $25.15	$29.11	-31.9%
EV/Revenue	$5.22 – $11.12	$10.35	-75.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$16.71 – $16.71	$16.71	-60.9%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$11.73 – $16.97	$13.81	-67.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$6.51 – $24.79	$10.82	-74.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$28.44

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-33.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.4% to 6.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 14, DIO 62). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $28.44 per share, suggesting TR is overvalued by 33.5% at the current price of $42.74.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.33%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	107	114	122	129	138	143
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	27	27	28	30	34	35
EBITDA	134	141	150	160	172	178

(−) Tax	28	29	31	33	35	37
(−) CapEx	30	32	35	37	39	41
(−) ΔWC	20	9	9	10	10	11
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	57	71	75	80	87	90

Terminal Value						2,353
WACC / Discount Rate	7.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	55	64	63	62	63	1,653

Enterprise Value	1,960
Projection Period	307	15.7%
Terminal Value	1,653	84.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	(114)

Equity Value	2,073
(/) Outstanding Shares	73

Fair Price	$28.44

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
5.3%	$40	$47	$58	$78	$121
6.3%	$30	$33	$38	$45	$56
7.3%	$24	$26	$28	$32	$36
8.3%	$20	$21	$23	$25	$27
9.3%	$17	$18	$19	$20	$22

Current price: $42.74. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$31.22

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-26.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.4% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 14, DIO 62). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (72% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $31.22 per share, suggesting TR is overvalued by 26.9% at the current price of $42.74.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.33%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	107	114	122	129	138	146	154	161	167	173	180
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
(+) D&A	27	27	28	30	34	35	37	39	41	43	45
EBITDA	134	141	150	160	172	181	191	200	209	217	225

(−) Tax	28	29	31	33	35	38	39	41	43	45	46
(−) CapEx	30	32	35	37	39	41	44	46	48	49	51
(−) ΔWC	20	9	9	10	10	10	10	9	8	7	8
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	57	71	75	80	87	92	98	104	110	116	120

Terminal Value											3,143
WACC / Discount Rate	7.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	55	64	63	62	63	62	62	61	61	59	1,550

Enterprise Value	2,163
Projection Period	613	28.3%
Terminal Value	1,550	71.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	(114)

Equity Value	2,276
(/) Outstanding Shares	73

Fair Price	$31.22

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
5.3%	$46	$53	$65	$85	$130
6.3%	$34	$37	$42	$49	$59
7.3%	$27	$29	$31	$34	$39
8.3%	$22	$24	$25	$27	$29
9.3%	$19	$20	$21	$22	$23

Current price: $42.74. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$23.08

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-46.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.4% to 6.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 14, DIO 62). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $23.08 per share, suggesting TR is overvalued by 46.0% at the current price of $42.74.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.33%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.20x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	107	114	122	129	138	141
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	27	27	28	30	34	35
EBITDA	134	141	150	160	172	176

(−) Tax	28	29	31	33	35	—
(−) CapEx	30	32	35	37	39	—
(−) ΔWC	20	9	9	10	10	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	57	71	75	80	87	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						10.2x
Terminal Value						1,797
WACC / Discount Rate	7.33%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	55	64	63	62	63	1,262

Enterprise Value	1,569
Projection Period	307	19.6%
Terminal Value	1,262	80.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	(114)
Equity Value	1,683
(÷) Outstanding Shares	73M
Fair Price	$23	-46.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.2x	8.2x	10.2x	12.2x	14.2x
5.3%	$18	$21	$25	$29	$32
6.3%	$17	$20	$24	$28	$31
7.3%	$16	$20	$23	$26	$30
8.3%	$16	$19	$22	$25	$29
9.3%	$15	$18	$21	$24	$28

Current price: $42.74. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$25.34

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-40.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.4% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 14, DIO 62). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (65% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $25.34 per share, suggesting TR is overvalued by 40.7% at the current price of $42.74.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.33%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.20x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	107	114	122	129	138	146	154	161	167	173	178
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
(+) D&A	27	27	28	30	34	35	37	39	41	43	45
EBITDA	134	141	150	160	172	181	191	200	209	217	223

(−) Tax	28	29	31	33	35	38	39	41	43	45	—
(−) CapEx	30	32	35	37	39	41	44	46	48	49	—
(−) ΔWC	20	9	9	10	10	10	10	9	8	7	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	57	71	75	80	87	92	98	104	110	116	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											10.2x
Terminal Value											2,274
WACC / Discount Rate	7.33%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	55	64	63	62	63	62	62	61	61	59	1,121

Enterprise Value	1,734
Projection Period	613	35.3%
Terminal Value	1,121	64.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	(114)
Equity Value	1,848
(÷) Outstanding Shares	73M
Fair Price	$25	-40.7%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.2x	8.2x	10.2x	12.2x	14.2x
5.3%	$22	$26	$29	$33	$37
6.3%	$21	$24	$27	$31	$34
7.3%	$19	$22	$25	$28	$31
8.3%	$18	$21	$24	$26	$29
9.3%	$17	$20	$22	$25	$27

Current price: $42.74. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$24.63

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-42.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) has a fair value of $24.63 based on 9 comparable companies in the Food Confectioners industry.

P/E Valuation — Food Confectioners

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.TR	3,116	31.2x	33.4x
The Andersons, Inc.ANDE	2,438	25.6x	23.7x
Universal Technical Institute, Inc.UTI	1,953	31.4x	33.5x
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.SPB	1,830	20.4x	14.8x
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.FDP	1,750	19.6x	—
Weis Markets, Inc.WMK	1,749	19.4x	13.1x
Turning Point Brands, Inc.TPB	1,745	29.0x	34.6x
Ingles Markets, IncorporatedIMKTA	1,645	19.7x	18.4x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,448	22.7x	14.7x
Vital Farms, Inc.VITL	426	6.6x	8.5x
Industry Median		20.4x	16.6x
(*) Profit after tax		100	93
Equity Value		2,038	1,553
(/) Outstanding shares		73	73
Fair Price		$28	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$24.63

-42.4%

Fair Value

$29.11

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-31.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) has a fair value of $29.11 based on 9 comparable companies in the Food Confectioners industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Food Confectioners

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.TR	3,116	19.2x	11.6x
The Andersons, Inc.ANDE	2,438	10.5x	9.4x
Universal Technical Institute, Inc.UTI	1,953	14.3x	14.4x
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.SPB	1,830	11.0x	10.9x
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.FDP	1,750	10.2x	10.4x
Weis Markets, Inc.WMK	1,749	7.9x	5.9x
Turning Point Brands, Inc.TPB	1,745	17.0x	21.8x
Ingles Markets, IncorporatedIMKTA	1,645	7.2x	8.7x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,448	9.3x	9.4x
Vital Farms, Inc.VITL	426	4.1x	5.1x
Industry Median		10.2x	9.4x
(*) EBITDA		157	258
= Enterprise Value		1,599	2,419
(-) Net Debt		-114	-114
Equity Value		1,712	2,533
(/) Outstanding shares		73	73
Fair Price		$23	$35

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$29.11

-31.9%

Fair Value

$10.35

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-75.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) has a fair value of $10.35 based on 9 comparable companies in the Food Confectioners industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Food Confectioners

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.TR	3,116	4.1x	2.5x
The Andersons, Inc.ANDE	2,438	0.3x	0.3x
Universal Technical Institute, Inc.UTI	1,953	2.5x	2.5x
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.SPB	1,830	0.8x	0.8x
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.FDP	1,750	0.5x	0.5x
Weis Markets, Inc.WMK	1,749	0.4x	0.3x
Turning Point Brands, Inc.TPB	1,745	4.0x	5.1x
Ingles Markets, IncorporatedIMKTA	1,645	0.3x	0.4x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,448	1.0x	1.0x
Vital Farms, Inc.VITL	426	0.6x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.6x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		733	1,205
= Enterprise Value		416	865
(-) Net Debt		-114	-114
Equity Value		530	979
(/) Outstanding shares		73	73
Fair Price		$7	$13

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$10.35

-75.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$16.71

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-60.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 12.2% plus 0.8% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $16.71 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $1.37. The current PEG ratio is 2.56.

PEG Ratio

2.56Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 31.2 ÷ (11.4% + 0.8%) = 2.56

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	11.4%
Dividend Yield	+0.8%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	12.2%
Fair P/E	12.2x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$1.37
Fair Value	$16.71

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$65.3M	$0.89	—
FY2022	$75.9M	$1.01	+13.5%
FY2023	$91.9M	$1.24	+22.8%
FY2024	$86.8M	$1.18	-4.8%
FY2025	$100.1M	$1.37	+16.1%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 11.4%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$13.81

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-67.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.3% and normalized earnings of $65.4M, the company has a fair value of $13.81 per share. The EPV range is $11.73 – $16.97 based on WACC sensitivity (5.8% – 8.8%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	65	65	65
(/) WACC	8.8%	7.3%	5.8%
Enterprise Value	742	893	1,123
(-) Net debt	-114	-114	-114
Equity Value	855	1,007	1,237
(/) Outstanding shares	73	73	73
Fair Price	$11.73	$13.81	$16.97

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$10.82

Market Price

$42.74

Upside / Downside

-74.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.3% and projected dividend growth of 6.2%, the fair value is $10.82 per share. The DDM range is $6.51 – $24.79 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.36

Dividend Yield

0.81%

Payout Ratio

26.1%

Dividend Coverage

3.84x

FCF Payout Ratio27.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)2.2%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.36	26.1%	+2.9%
2024	$0.35	29.4%	-0.4%
2023	$0.35	27.3%	+3.4%
2022	$0.34	32.4%	+3.0%
2021	$0.33	36.9%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.38	6.2%	0.9316	$0.35
2027	$0.40	6.2%	0.8678	$0.35
2028	$0.43	6.2%	0.8084	$0.35
2029	$0.45	6.2%	0.7531	$0.34
2030	$0.48	6.2%	0.7015	$0.34
Terminal Value	$0.50 DPS	3.5%		$9.10

PV of Projected Dividends$1.73

PV of Terminal Value$9.10

Fair Value per Share$10.82

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	4.2%	5.2%	6.2%	7.2%	8.2%
5.3%	$21	$22	$23	$24	$25
6.3%	$13	$14	$15	$15	$16
7.3%	$10	$10	$11	$11	$12
8.3%	$8	$8	$9	$9	$9
9.3%	$7	$7	$7	$7	$8

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.