Swvl Holdings Corp.

SWVL

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$1.84

Market Cap: $18.33M

Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 22:31

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.38 – $353.13	$45.58	+2377.3%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$3.90 – $333.03	$46.12	+2406.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.46 – $42.00	$18.81	+922.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$46.12

Market Price

$1.84

Upside / Downside

+2406.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -49.3% to a target of 10.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.7%, Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL) has an intrinsic value of $46.12 per share (range: $3.90 – $333.03).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-49.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.5%

D&A/Revenue

4.3%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	1,304	7478.1%	-37.5%	-488	-488	57	(31)	44	-506	-486
2026	1,302	-0.1%	-25.6%	-333	-333	56	(37)	-0	-313	-276
2027	1,300	-0.1%	-13.7%	-178	-178	56	(43)	-0	-164	-133
2028	1,298	-0.1%	-1.8%	-23	-23	56	(49)	-0	-16	-12
2029	1,296	-0.1%	10.1%	131	131	56	(54)	-0	132	91
2030	1,301	0.4%	10.1%	131	131	56	(61)	0	127	80
2031	1,313	0.9%	10.1%	132	132	57	(67)	0	122	71
2032	1,331	1.4%	10.1%	134	134	58	(74)	1	117	63
2033	1,357	1.9%	10.1%	137	137	59	(82)	1	113	56
2034	1,391	2.5%	10.1%	140	140	60	(90)	1	109	49

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-498

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,971

PV of Terminal Value893

Enterprise Value395

(–) Net Debt-4

Equity Value399

(÷) Shares Outstanding9

Fair Value per Share$46.12

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
6.7%	$-59	$39	$137	$235	$333
7.7%	$-71	$5	$82	$158	$234
8.7%	$-79	$-16	$46	$109	$171
9.7%	$-84	$-31	$22	$74	$127
10.7%	$-87	$-41	$4	$49	$95

Current price: $1.84. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 3.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$45.58

Market Price

$1.84

Upside / Downside

+2377.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-49.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.5%

D&A/Revenue

4.3%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	1,304	7478.1%	-37.5%	-488	-488	57	(37)	44	-512	-492
2026	1,302	-0.1%	-25.6%	-333	-333	56	(49)	-0	-325	-287
2027	1,300	-0.1%	-13.7%	-178	-178	56	(61)	-0	-182	-148
2028	1,298	-0.1%	-1.8%	-23	-23	56	(72)	-0	-40	-30
2029	1,296	-0.1%	10.1%	131	131	56	(84)	-0	103	70

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-885

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,857

PV of Terminal Value1,276

Enterprise Value391

(–) Net Debt-4

Equity Value395

(÷) Shares Outstanding9

Fair Value per Share$45.58

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
6.7%	$-66	$39	$144	$248	$353
7.7%	$-79	$2	$84	$165	$247
8.7%	$-87	$-21	$46	$112	$178
9.7%	$-92	$-36	$19	$75	$131
10.7%	$-96	$-48	$0	$48	$96

Current price: $1.84. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 3.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$18.81

Market Price

$1.84

Upside / Downside

+922.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL) has a fair value of $18.81 based on 6 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Swvl Holdings Corp.SWVL	16	0.7x	0.3x
Creative Realities, Inc.CREX	40	1.8x	2.0x
Blackboxstocks Inc.BLBX	34	14.1x	5.7x
Firefly Neuroscience, Inc.AIFF	27	20.9x	—
Cyngn Inc.CYN	13	86.7x	158.1x
Cloudastructure Inc.CSAI	11	0.5x	0.5x
NetClass Technology IncNTCL	9	1.0x	—
Industry Median		8.0x	3.9x
(*) Revenue		17	47
= Enterprise Value		137	181
(-) Net Debt		-4	-4
Equity Value		141	185
(/) Outstanding shares		9	9
Fair Price		$16	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$18.81

+922.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.38 – $353.13

$45.58

+2377.3%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$3.90 – $333.03

$46.12

+2406.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.46 – $42.00

$18.81

+922.4%

DCF Analysis

Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$46.12

Market Price

$1.84

Upside / Downside

+2406.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-49.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.5%

D&A/Revenue

4.3%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	1,304	7478.1%	-37.5%	-488	-488	57	(31)	44	-506	-486
2026	1,302	-0.1%	-25.6%	-333	-333	56	(37)	-0	-313	-276
2027	1,300	-0.1%	-13.7%	-178	-178	56	(43)	-0	-164	-133
2028	1,298	-0.1%	-1.8%	-23	-23	56	(49)	-0	-16	-12
2029	1,296	-0.1%	10.1%	131	131	56	(54)	-0	132	91
2030	1,301	0.4%	10.1%	131	131	56	(61)	0	127	80
2031	1,313	0.9%	10.1%	132	132	57	(67)	0	122	71
2032	1,331	1.4%	10.1%	134	134	58	(74)	1	117	63
2033	1,357	1.9%	10.1%	137	137	59	(82)	1	113	56
2034	1,391	2.5%	10.1%	140	140	60	(90)	1	109	49

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-498

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,971

PV of Terminal Value893

Enterprise Value395

(–) Net Debt-4

Equity Value399

(÷) Shares Outstanding9

Fair Value per Share$46.12

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
6.7%	$-59	$39	$137	$235	$333
7.7%	$-71	$5	$82	$158	$234
8.7%	$-79	$-16	$46	$109	$171
9.7%	$-84	$-31	$22	$74	$127
10.7%	$-87	$-41	$4	$49	$95

Current price: $1.84. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 3.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$18.81

Market Price

$1.84

Upside / Downside

+922.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Swvl Holdings Corp. (SWVL) has a fair value of $18.81 based on 6 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Swvl Holdings Corp.SWVL	16	0.7x	0.3x
Creative Realities, Inc.CREX	40	1.8x	2.0x
Blackboxstocks Inc.BLBX	34	14.1x	5.7x
Firefly Neuroscience, Inc.AIFF	27	20.9x	—
Cyngn Inc.CYN	13	86.7x	158.1x
Cloudastructure Inc.CSAI	11	0.5x	0.5x
NetClass Technology IncNTCL	9	1.0x	—
Industry Median		8.0x	3.9x
(*) Revenue		17	47
= Enterprise Value		137	181
(-) Net Debt		-4	-4
Equity Value		141	185
(/) Outstanding shares		9	9
Fair Price		$16	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$18.81

+922.4%