South Plains Financial, Inc.

SPFI

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$39.39

Market Cap: $640.47M

South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 21, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$83.78 – $287.39	$127.25	+193.8%
Growth Exit 10Y	$94.23 – $308.30	$140.47	+224.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$56.96 – $120.23	$85.93	+98.4%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$72.44 – $145.53	$103.61	+139.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$33.87 – $43.91	$40.60	-6.3%
EV/EBITDA	$30.25 – $50.41	$44.87	+3.6%
EV/Revenue	$38.99 – $53.92	$47.27	+9.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$30.74 – $30.74	$30.74	-29.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$65.00 – $96.40	$77.65	+79.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$13.72 – $36.76	$21.30	-50.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$127.25

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+223.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project South Plains Financial, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -16.3% to 6.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 27, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $127.25 per share, suggesting SPFI is undervalued by 223.1% at the current price of $39.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	75
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	72
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	153

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	16
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	6
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	2
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	95	103	111	118	126	129

Terminal Value						2,477
WACC / Discount Rate	7.7%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	1,708

Enterprise Value	2,165
Projection Period	457	21.1%
Terminal Value	1,708	78.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	2

Equity Value	2,162
(/) Outstanding Shares	17

Fair Price	$127.25

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.7%	$165	$183	$207	$240	$287
6.7%	$133	$144	$158	$175	$198
7.7%	$111	$118	$127	$138	$151
8.7%	$96	$101	$107	$114	$122
9.7%	$84	$88	$92	$97	$102

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$140.47

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+256.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project South Plains Financial, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -16.3% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 27, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (63% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $140.47 per share, suggesting SPFI is undervalued by 256.6% at the current price of $39.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	78	82	86	90	93	96
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	75	79	83	87	90	92
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	158	167	175	183	189	194

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	19	20
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	95	103	111	118	126	134	142	149	156	162	166

Terminal Value											3,173
WACC / Discount Rate	7.7%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	89	87	85	83	80	1,508

Enterprise Value	2,389
Projection Period	881	36.9%
Terminal Value	1,508	63.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2

Equity Value	2,387
(/) Outstanding Shares	17

Fair Price	$140.47

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.7%	$189	$207	$230	$262	$308
6.7%	$152	$162	$175	$191	$212
7.7%	$126	$133	$140	$150	$161
8.7%	$108	$112	$117	$123	$130
9.7%	$94	$97	$101	$105	$109

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$85.92

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+118.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project South Plains Financial, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -16.3% to 6.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 27, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $85.93 per share, suggesting SPFI is undervalued by 118.2% at the current price of $39.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.56x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	75
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	72
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	153

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	—
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	—
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	95	103	111	118	126	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.6x
Terminal Value						1,458
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	1,005

Enterprise Value	1,462
Projection Period	457	31.2%
Terminal Value	1,005	68.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	2
Equity Value	1,460
(÷) Outstanding Shares	17M
Fair Price	$86	+118.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.7%	$66	$79	$93	$107	$120
6.7%	$63	$76	$89	$102	$115
7.7%	$61	$74	$86	$98	$111
8.7%	$59	$71	$83	$94	$106
9.7%	$57	$68	$80	$91	$102

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$103.60

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+163.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project South Plains Financial, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -16.3% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 27, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (50% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $103.61 per share, suggesting SPFI is undervalued by 163.0% at the current price of $39.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.56x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	78	82	86	90	93	96
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	75	79	83	87	90	92
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	158	167	175	183	189	194

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	19	—
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	—
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	95	103	111	118	126	134	142	149	156	162	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.6x
Terminal Value											1,855
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	89	87	85	83	80	882

Enterprise Value	1,763
Projection Period	881	50.0%
Terminal Value	882	50.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	2
Equity Value	1,761
(÷) Outstanding Shares	17M
Fair Price	$104	+163.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.7%	$93	$106	$119	$132	$146
6.7%	$87	$99	$111	$123	$135
7.7%	$82	$93	$104	$114	$125
8.7%	$77	$87	$97	$107	$117
9.7%	$72	$81	$91	$100	$109

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.60

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+3.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) has a fair value of $40.60 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
South Plains Financial, Inc.SPFI	669	11.5x	14.2x
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.MCBS	908	11.9x	14.6x
First Community Bankshares, Inc.FCBC	811	16.0x	15.2x
First Financial CorporationTHFF	782	9.8x	15.2x
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.SMBC	734	12.8x	17.5x
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.GSBC	731	10.8x	13.2x
SmartFinancial, Inc.SMBK	699	13.7x	26.8x
Independent Bank CorporationIBCP	690	10.2x	10.6x
Financial Institutions, Inc.FISI	674	9.5x	13.6x
Southern California BancorpBCAL	593	9.5x	21.0x
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.BWB	518	12.4x	18.7x
Industry Median		11.3x	15.2x
(*) Profit after tax		58	47
Equity Value		664	716
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$39	$42

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.60

+3.1%

Fair Value

$44.87

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+13.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) has a fair value of $44.87 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
South Plains Financial, Inc.SPFI	669	9.1x	14.5x
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.MCBS	908	11.6x	21.7x
First Community Bankshares, Inc.FCBC	811	4.8x	5.4x
First Financial CorporationTHFF	782	10.4x	17.7x
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.SMBC	734	8.1x	16.8x
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.GSBC	731	11.9x	18.6x
SmartFinancial, Inc.SMBK	699	4.8x	10.2x
Independent Bank CorporationIBCP	690	9.3x	13.8x
Financial Institutions, Inc.FISI	674	9.8x	17.9x
Southern California BancorpBCAL	593	7.0x	18.6x
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.BWB	518	13.9x	37.4x
Industry Median		9.6x	17.8x
(*) EBITDA		74	46
= Enterprise Value		708	821
(-) Net Debt		2	2
Equity Value		706	819
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$42	$48

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$44.87

+13.9%

Fair Value

$47.27

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+20.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) has a fair value of $47.27 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
South Plains Financial, Inc.SPFI	669	2.3x	3.6x
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.MCBS	908	4.5x	8.5x
First Community Bankshares, Inc.FCBC	811	1.6x	1.8x
First Financial CorporationTHFF	782	3.5x	5.9x
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.SMBC	734	2.2x	4.6x
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.GSBC	731	3.0x	4.7x
SmartFinancial, Inc.SMBK	699	1.1x	2.3x
Independent Bank CorporationIBCP	690	2.4x	3.6x
Financial Institutions, Inc.FISI	674	2.4x	4.3x
Southern California BancorpBCAL	593	2.6x	7.0x
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.BWB	518	3.1x	8.3x
Industry Median		2.5x	4.7x
(*) Revenue		297	185
= Enterprise Value		746	865
(-) Net Debt		2	2
Equity Value		743	863
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$44	$51

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$47.27

+20.0%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$30.74

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

-22.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 1.4% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $30.74 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.84. The current PEG ratio is 3.23.

PEG Ratio

3.23Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 11.3 ÷ (2.1% + 1.4%) = 3.23

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	2.1%
Dividend Yield	+1.4%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.84
Fair Value	$30.74

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.44	—	—
FY2026E	$3.84	+11.7%	3

1Y Forward EPS CAGR: 11.7%

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$58.6M	$3.17	—
FY2022	$58.2M	$3.23	+1.9%
FY2023	$62.7M	$3.62	+12.1%
FY2024	$49.7M	$2.92	-19.3%
FY2025	$58.5M	$3.44	+17.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 2.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$77.65

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+97.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.7% and normalized earnings of $102.1M, the company has a fair value of $77.65 per share. The EPV range is $65.00 – $96.40 based on WACC sensitivity (6.2% – 9.2%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	102	102	102
(/) WACC	9.2%	7.7%	6.2%
Enterprise Value	1,107	1,322	1,640
(-) Net debt	2	2	2
Equity Value	1,105	1,320	1,638
(/) Outstanding shares	17	17	17
Fair Price	$65.00	$77.65	$96.40

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$21.30

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

-45.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.4% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $21.30 per share. The DDM range is $13.72 – $36.76 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.59

Dividend Yield

1.43%

Payout Ratio

17.3%

Dividend Coverage

5.79x

FCF Payout Ratio14.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)18.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.59	17.3%	+6.9%
2024	$0.56	18.4%	+4.4%
2023	$0.53	13.9%	+13.2%
2022	$0.47	13.8%	+55.2%
2021	$0.30	9.2%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.68	15.0%	0.9314	$0.64
2027	$0.79	15.0%	0.8674	$0.68
2028	$0.90	15.0%	0.8079	$0.73
2029	$1.04	15.0%	0.7524	$0.78
2030	$1.20	15.0%	0.7008	$0.84
Terminal Value	$1.23 DPS	2.5%		$17.63

PV of Projected Dividends$3.67

PV of Terminal Value$17.63

Fair Value per Share$21.30

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.4%	$34	$35	$37	$37	$37
6.4%	$25	$26	$27	$27	$27
7.4%	$20	$20	$21	$21	$21
8.4%	$16	$17	$18	$18	$18
9.4%	$14	$14	$15	$15	$15

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 21, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$83.78 – $287.39	$127.25	+193.8%
Growth Exit 10Y	$94.23 – $308.30	$140.47	+224.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$56.96 – $120.23	$85.93	+98.4%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$72.44 – $145.53	$103.61	+139.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$33.87 – $43.91	$40.60	-6.3%
EV/EBITDA	$30.25 – $50.41	$44.87	+3.6%
EV/Revenue	$38.99 – $53.92	$47.27	+9.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$30.74 – $30.74	$30.74	-29.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$65.00 – $96.40	$77.65	+79.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$13.72 – $36.76	$21.30	-50.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$127.25

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+223.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	75
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	72
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	153

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	16
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	6
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	2
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	95	103	111	118	126	129

Terminal Value						2,477
WACC / Discount Rate	7.7%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	1,708

Enterprise Value	2,165
Projection Period	457	21.1%
Terminal Value	1,708	78.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	2

Equity Value	2,162
(/) Outstanding Shares	17

Fair Price	$127.25

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.7%	$165	$183	$207	$240	$287
6.7%	$133	$144	$158	$175	$198
7.7%	$111	$118	$127	$138	$151
8.7%	$96	$101	$107	$114	$122
9.7%	$84	$88	$92	$97	$102

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$140.47

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+256.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	78	82	86	90	93	96
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	75	79	83	87	90	92
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	158	167	175	183	189	194

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	19	20
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	95	103	111	118	126	134	142	149	156	162	166

Terminal Value											3,173
WACC / Discount Rate	7.7%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	89	87	85	83	80	1,508

Enterprise Value	2,389
Projection Period	881	36.9%
Terminal Value	1,508	63.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2

Equity Value	2,387
(/) Outstanding Shares	17

Fair Price	$140.47

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.7%	$189	$207	$230	$262	$308
6.7%	$152	$162	$175	$191	$212
7.7%	$126	$133	$140	$150	$161
8.7%	$108	$112	$117	$123	$130
9.7%	$94	$97	$101	$105	$109

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$85.92

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+118.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project South Plains Financial, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -16.3% to 6.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 27, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $85.93 per share, suggesting SPFI is undervalued by 118.2% at the current price of $39.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.56x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	75
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	72
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	153

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	—
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	—
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	95	103	111	118	126	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.6x
Terminal Value						1,458
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	1,005

Enterprise Value	1,462
Projection Period	457	31.2%
Terminal Value	1,005	68.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	2
Equity Value	1,460
(÷) Outstanding Shares	17M
Fair Price	$86	+118.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.7%	$66	$79	$93	$107	$120
6.7%	$63	$76	$89	$102	$115
7.7%	$61	$74	$86	$98	$111
8.7%	$59	$71	$83	$94	$106
9.7%	$57	$68	$80	$91	$102

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$103.60

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+163.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project South Plains Financial, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -16.3% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 27, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (50% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $103.61 per share, suggesting SPFI is undervalued by 163.0% at the current price of $39.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.72%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.56x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	55	60	64	69	73	78	82	86	90	93	96
(−) Net Interest	53	58	62	66	71	75	79	83	87	90	92
(+) D&A	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6
EBITDA	112	122	131	139	149	158	167	175	183	189	194

(−) Tax	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	19	—
(−) CapEx	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	—
(−) ΔWC	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	95	103	111	118	126	134	142	149	156	162	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.6x
Terminal Value											1,855
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	91	92	92	91	90	89	87	85	83	80	882

Enterprise Value	1,763
Projection Period	881	50.0%
Terminal Value	882	50.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	2
Equity Value	1,761
(÷) Outstanding Shares	17M
Fair Price	$104	+163.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.7%	$93	$106	$119	$132	$146
6.7%	$87	$99	$111	$123	$135
7.7%	$82	$93	$104	$114	$125
8.7%	$77	$87	$97	$107	$117
9.7%	$72	$81	$91	$100	$109

Current price: $39.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.60

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+3.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
South Plains Financial, Inc.SPFI	669	11.5x	14.2x
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.MCBS	908	11.9x	14.6x
First Community Bankshares, Inc.FCBC	811	16.0x	15.2x
First Financial CorporationTHFF	782	9.8x	15.2x
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.SMBC	734	12.8x	17.5x
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.GSBC	731	10.8x	13.2x
SmartFinancial, Inc.SMBK	699	13.7x	26.8x
Independent Bank CorporationIBCP	690	10.2x	10.6x
Financial Institutions, Inc.FISI	674	9.5x	13.6x
Southern California BancorpBCAL	593	9.5x	21.0x
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.BWB	518	12.4x	18.7x
Industry Median		11.3x	15.2x
(*) Profit after tax		58	47
Equity Value		664	716
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$39	$42

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.60

+3.1%

Fair Value

$44.87

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+13.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
South Plains Financial, Inc.SPFI	669	9.1x	14.5x
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.MCBS	908	11.6x	21.7x
First Community Bankshares, Inc.FCBC	811	4.8x	5.4x
First Financial CorporationTHFF	782	10.4x	17.7x
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.SMBC	734	8.1x	16.8x
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.GSBC	731	11.9x	18.6x
SmartFinancial, Inc.SMBK	699	4.8x	10.2x
Independent Bank CorporationIBCP	690	9.3x	13.8x
Financial Institutions, Inc.FISI	674	9.8x	17.9x
Southern California BancorpBCAL	593	7.0x	18.6x
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.BWB	518	13.9x	37.4x
Industry Median		9.6x	17.8x
(*) EBITDA		74	46
= Enterprise Value		708	821
(-) Net Debt		2	2
Equity Value		706	819
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$42	$48

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$44.87

+13.9%

Fair Value

$47.27

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+20.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
South Plains Financial, Inc.SPFI	669	2.3x	3.6x
MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.MCBS	908	4.5x	8.5x
First Community Bankshares, Inc.FCBC	811	1.6x	1.8x
First Financial CorporationTHFF	782	3.5x	5.9x
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.SMBC	734	2.2x	4.6x
Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.GSBC	731	3.0x	4.7x
SmartFinancial, Inc.SMBK	699	1.1x	2.3x
Independent Bank CorporationIBCP	690	2.4x	3.6x
Financial Institutions, Inc.FISI	674	2.4x	4.3x
Southern California BancorpBCAL	593	2.6x	7.0x
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.BWB	518	3.1x	8.3x
Industry Median		2.5x	4.7x
(*) Revenue		297	185
= Enterprise Value		746	865
(-) Net Debt		2	2
Equity Value		743	863
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$44	$51

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$47.27

+20.0%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$30.74

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

-22.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 1.4% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $30.74 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.84. The current PEG ratio is 3.23.

PEG Ratio

3.23Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 11.3 ÷ (2.1% + 1.4%) = 3.23

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	2.1%
Dividend Yield	+1.4%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.84
Fair Value	$30.74

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.44	—	—
FY2026E	$3.84	+11.7%	3

1Y Forward EPS CAGR: 11.7%

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$58.6M	$3.17	—
FY2022	$58.2M	$3.23	+1.9%
FY2023	$62.7M	$3.62	+12.1%
FY2024	$49.7M	$2.92	-19.3%
FY2025	$58.5M	$3.44	+17.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 2.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$77.65

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

+97.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	102	102	102
(/) WACC	9.2%	7.7%	6.2%
Enterprise Value	1,107	1,322	1,640
(-) Net debt	2	2	2
Equity Value	1,105	1,320	1,638
(/) Outstanding shares	17	17	17
Fair Price	$65.00	$77.65	$96.40

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$21.30

Market Price

$39.39

Upside / Downside

-45.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.59

Dividend Yield

1.43%

Payout Ratio

17.3%

Dividend Coverage

5.79x

FCF Payout Ratio14.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)18.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.59	17.3%	+6.9%
2024	$0.56	18.4%	+4.4%
2023	$0.53	13.9%	+13.2%
2022	$0.47	13.8%	+55.2%
2021	$0.30	9.2%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.68	15.0%	0.9314	$0.64
2027	$0.79	15.0%	0.8674	$0.68
2028	$0.90	15.0%	0.8079	$0.73
2029	$1.04	15.0%	0.7524	$0.78
2030	$1.20	15.0%	0.7008	$0.84
Terminal Value	$1.23 DPS	2.5%		$17.63

PV of Projected Dividends$3.67

PV of Terminal Value$17.63

Fair Value per Share$21.30

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.4%	$34	$35	$37	$37	$37
6.4%	$25	$26	$27	$27	$27
7.4%	$20	$20	$21	$21	$21
8.4%	$16	$17	$18	$18	$18
9.4%	$14	$14	$15	$15	$15