Papa John's International, Inc.

PZZA

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$32.70

Market Cap: $1.08B

Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 21, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$55.98 – $669.34	$117.92	+213.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$54.86 – $591.66	$109.88	+192.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$31.85 – $106.63	$66.04	+75.8%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$38.26 – $114.41	$70.60	+87.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$8.69 – $29.11	$27.99	-25.5%
EV/EBITDA	$18.09 – $64.17	$21.32	-43.2%
EV/Revenue	$30.93 – $116.80	$51.13	+36.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$38.45 – $38.45	$38.45	+2.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$45.71 – $94.77	$64.36	+71.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$19.95 – $42.34	$27.82	-25.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$117.92

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+260.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Papa John's International, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to -0.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 13, DIO 8). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $117.92 per share, suggesting PZZA is undervalued by 260.6% at the current price of $32.70.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	226
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	33
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	68
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	327

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	52
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	69
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	-0
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	211	205	202	203	201	206

Terminal Value						5,496
WACC / Discount Rate	6.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	4,058

Enterprise Value	4,941
Projection Period	883	17.9%
Terminal Value	4,058	82.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056

Equity Value	3,885
(/) Outstanding Shares	33

Fair Price	$117.92

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.3%	$181	$222	$286	$401	$669
5.3%	$124	$144	$171	$210	$272
6.3%	$92	$103	$118	$137	$163
7.3%	$71	$78	$87	$98	$112
8.3%	$56	$61	$67	$74	$82

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$109.88

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+236.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Papa John's International, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 13, DIO 8). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (67% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $109.88 per share, suggesting PZZA is undervalued by 236.0% at the current price of $32.70.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	221	223	226	231	237	242
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	34	35
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	67	67	68	68	69	70
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	320	323	327	332	339	348

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	51	51	52	53	54	55
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	68	68	69	71	72	74
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	0	1	1	2	2	2
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	211	205	202	203	201	202	203	205	207	211	216

Terminal Value											5,759
WACC / Discount Rate	6.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	145	137	130	124	119	3,139

Enterprise Value	4,676
Projection Period	1,537	32.9%
Terminal Value	3,139	67.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056

Equity Value	3,620
(/) Outstanding Shares	33

Fair Price	$109.88

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.3%	$176	$211	$265	$364	$592
5.3%	$121	$137	$159	$191	$241
6.3%	$90	$99	$110	$125	$144
7.3%	$69	$75	$81	$89	$99
8.3%	$55	$58	$62	$67	$73

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$66.06

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+102.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Papa John's International, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to -0.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 13, DIO 8). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.04 per share, suggesting PZZA is undervalued by 102.0% at the current price of $32.70.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.73x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	226
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	33
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	68
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	327

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	—
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	—
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	211	205	202	203	201	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.7x
Terminal Value						3,182
WACC / Discount Rate	6.26%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	2,349

Enterprise Value	3,232
Projection Period	883	27.3%
Terminal Value	2,349	72.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056
Equity Value	2,176
(÷) Outstanding Shares	33M
Fair Price	$66	+102.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
4.3%	$42	$58	$74	$91	$107
5.3%	$39	$55	$70	$85	$101
6.3%	$37	$51	$66	$81	$95
7.3%	$34	$48	$62	$76	$90
8.3%	$32	$45	$59	$72	$85

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$70.61

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+115.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Papa John's International, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 13, DIO 8). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (55% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $70.60 per share, suggesting PZZA is undervalued by 115.9% at the current price of $32.70.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.73x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	221	223	226	231	237	242
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	34	35
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	67	67	68	68	69	70
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	320	323	327	332	339	348

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	51	51	52	53	54	—
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	68	68	69	71	72	—
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	0	1	1	2	2	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	211	205	202	203	201	202	203	205	207	211	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.7x
Terminal Value											3,385
WACC / Discount Rate	6.26%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	145	137	130	124	119	1,845

Enterprise Value	3,382
Projection Period	1,537	45.4%
Terminal Value	1,845	54.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056
Equity Value	2,326
(÷) Outstanding Shares	33M
Fair Price	$71	+115.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
4.3%	$59	$73	$87	$100	$114
5.3%	$53	$66	$78	$91	$104
6.3%	$48	$59	$71	$82	$94
7.3%	$43	$53	$64	$74	$85
8.3%	$38	$48	$57	$67	$76

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$27.99

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

-14.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) has a fair value of $27.99 based on 7 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

P/E Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Papa John's International, Inc.PZZA	1,077	36.3x	14.8x
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ARCO	1,995	9.4x	10.4x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	1,975	16.1x	13.8x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,926	31.4x	42.9x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	1,763	18.2x	21.1x
Interface, Inc.TILE	1,644	14.4x	24.8x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,353	8.4x	12.2x
MasterBrand, Inc.MBC	1,158	43.2x	6.3x
Industry Median		16.1x	13.8x
(*) Profit after tax		31	73
Equity Value		492	1,352
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$15	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$27.99

-14.4%

Fair Value

$21.32

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

-34.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) has a fair value of $21.32 based on 10 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Papa John's International, Inc.PZZA	1,077	11.8x	11.8x
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ARCO	1,995	6.8x	6.8x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	1,975	9.5x	9.4x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,926	19.2x	21.0x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	1,763	9.1x	9.6x
Interface, Inc.TILE	1,644	9.3x	10.1x
Albany International Corp.AIN	1,606	35.1x	33.2x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,353	9.9x	9.8x
MasterBrand, Inc.MBC	1,158	10.3x	10.4x
Biglari Holdings Inc.BH	939	17.5x	8.1x
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary SharesHDL	830	7.9x	9.0x
Industry Median		9.7x	9.7x
(*) EBITDA		181	181
= Enterprise Value		1,765	1,752
(-) Net Debt		1,056	1,056
Equity Value		709	696
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$22	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$21.32

-34.8%

Fair Value

$51.13

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+56.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) has a fair value of $51.13 based on 10 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Papa John's International, Inc.PZZA	1,077	1.0x	1.0x
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ARCO	1,995	0.8x	0.8x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	1,975	1.2x	1.2x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,926	1.4x	1.5x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	1,763	3.1x	3.3x
Interface, Inc.TILE	1,644	1.3x	1.4x
Albany International Corp.AIN	1,606	1.6x	1.6x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,353	2.4x	2.4x
MasterBrand, Inc.MBC	1,158	0.8x	0.9x
Biglari Holdings Inc.BH	939	2.6x	1.2x
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary SharesHDL	830	1.0x	1.2x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		2,054	2,045
= Enterprise Value		2,756	2,725
(-) Net Debt		1,056	1,056
Equity Value		1,700	1,669
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$52	$51

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$51.13

+56.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$38.45

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+17.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 4.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $38.45 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.54. The current PEG ratio is 0.52.

PEG Ratio

0.52Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 24.4 ÷ (42.3% + 4.9%) = 0.52

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	42.3%
Dividend Yield	+4.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.54
Fair Value	$38.45

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.90	—	—
FY2026E	$1.54	+70.9%	12
FY2027E	$1.82	+18.5%	11

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 42.3%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$120.0M	$3.40	—
FY2022	$67.8M	$1.89	-44.4%
FY2023	$82.1M	$2.48	+31.2%
FY2024	$83.5M	$2.54	+2.4%
FY2025	$30.5M	$0.90	-64.6%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -28.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$64.36

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+96.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.3% and normalized earnings of $198.7M, the company has a fair value of $64.36 per share. The EPV range is $45.71 – $94.77 based on WACC sensitivity (4.8% – 7.8%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	199	199	199
(/) WACC	7.8%	6.3%	4.8%
Enterprise Value	2,562	3,176	4,178
(-) Net debt	1,056	1,056	1,056
Equity Value	1,506	2,120	3,122
(/) Outstanding shares	33	33	33
Fair Price	$45.71	$64.36	$94.77

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$27.82

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

-14.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.6% and projected dividend growth of 3.4%, the fair value is $27.82 per share. The DDM range is $19.95 – $42.34 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.86

Dividend Yield

4.95%

Payout Ratio

200.3%

Dividend Coverage

0.50x

FCF Payout Ratio99.7%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.9%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.86	200.3%	+0.6%
2024	$1.85	72.5%	+4.7%
2023	$1.76	71.2%	+15.0%
2022	$1.53	80.8%	+34.3%
2021	$1.14	33.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.92	3.4%	0.9124	$1.75
2027	$1.98	3.4%	0.8325	$1.65
2028	$2.05	3.4%	0.7596	$1.56
2029	$2.12	3.4%	0.6931	$1.47
2030	$2.19	3.4%	0.6324	$1.39
Terminal Value	$2.25 DPS	2.5%		$20.01

PV of Projected Dividends$7.81

PV of Terminal Value$20.01

Fair Value per Share$27.82

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.4%	2.4%	3.4%	4.4%	5.4%
7.6%	$35	$37	$39	$41	$42
8.6%	$30	$31	$32	$34	$35
9.6%	$26	$27	$28	$29	$30
10.6%	$22	$23	$24	$25	$26
11.6%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 21, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$55.98 – $669.34	$117.92	+213.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$54.86 – $591.66	$109.88	+192.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$31.85 – $106.63	$66.04	+75.8%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$38.26 – $114.41	$70.60	+87.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$8.69 – $29.11	$27.99	-25.5%
EV/EBITDA	$18.09 – $64.17	$21.32	-43.2%
EV/Revenue	$30.93 – $116.80	$51.13	+36.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$38.45 – $38.45	$38.45	+2.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$45.71 – $94.77	$64.36	+71.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$19.95 – $42.34	$27.82	-25.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$117.92

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+260.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	226
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	33
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	68
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	327

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	52
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	69
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	-0
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	211	205	202	203	201	206

Terminal Value						5,496
WACC / Discount Rate	6.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	4,058

Enterprise Value	4,941
Projection Period	883	17.9%
Terminal Value	4,058	82.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056

Equity Value	3,885
(/) Outstanding Shares	33

Fair Price	$117.92

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.3%	$181	$222	$286	$401	$669
5.3%	$124	$144	$171	$210	$272
6.3%	$92	$103	$118	$137	$163
7.3%	$71	$78	$87	$98	$112
8.3%	$56	$61	$67	$74	$82

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$109.88

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+236.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	221	223	226	231	237	242
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	34	35
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	67	67	68	68	69	70
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	320	323	327	332	339	348

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	51	51	52	53	54	55
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	68	68	69	71	72	74
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	0	1	1	2	2	2
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	211	205	202	203	201	202	203	205	207	211	216

Terminal Value											5,759
WACC / Discount Rate	6.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	145	137	130	124	119	3,139

Enterprise Value	4,676
Projection Period	1,537	32.9%
Terminal Value	3,139	67.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056

Equity Value	3,620
(/) Outstanding Shares	33

Fair Price	$109.88

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.3%	$176	$211	$265	$364	$592
5.3%	$121	$137	$159	$191	$241
6.3%	$90	$99	$110	$125	$144
7.3%	$69	$75	$81	$89	$99
8.3%	$55	$58	$62	$67	$73

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$66.06

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+102.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Papa John's International, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to -0.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 13, DIO 8). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.04 per share, suggesting PZZA is undervalued by 102.0% at the current price of $32.70.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.73x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	226
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	33
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	68
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	327

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	—
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	—
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	211	205	202	203	201	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.7x
Terminal Value						3,182
WACC / Discount Rate	6.26%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	2,349

Enterprise Value	3,232
Projection Period	883	27.3%
Terminal Value	2,349	72.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056
Equity Value	2,176
(÷) Outstanding Shares	33M
Fair Price	$66	+102.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
4.3%	$42	$58	$74	$91	$107
5.3%	$39	$55	$70	$85	$101
6.3%	$37	$51	$66	$81	$95
7.3%	$34	$48	$62	$76	$90
8.3%	$32	$45	$59	$72	$85

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$70.61

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+115.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Papa John's International, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 13, DIO 8). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (55% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $70.60 per share, suggesting PZZA is undervalued by 115.9% at the current price of $32.70.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.26%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.73x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	219	215	221	221	221	221	223	226	231	237	242
(−) Net Interest	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	34	35
(+) D&A	72	72	69	67	66	67	67	68	68	69	70
EBITDA	323	318	323	321	319	320	323	327	332	339	348

(−) Tax	50	49	51	51	50	51	51	52	53	54	—
(−) CapEx	67	66	68	67	67	68	68	69	71	72	—
(−) ΔWC	-6	-1	2	-0	-0	0	1	1	2	2	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	211	205	202	203	201	202	203	205	207	211	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.7x
Terminal Value											3,385
WACC / Discount Rate	6.26%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	205	187	174	164	153	145	137	130	124	119	1,845

Enterprise Value	3,382
Projection Period	1,537	45.4%
Terminal Value	1,845	54.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,056
Equity Value	2,326
(÷) Outstanding Shares	33M
Fair Price	$71	+115.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
4.3%	$59	$73	$87	$100	$114
5.3%	$53	$66	$78	$91	$104
6.3%	$48	$59	$71	$82	$94
7.3%	$43	$53	$64	$74	$85
8.3%	$38	$48	$57	$67	$76

Current price: $32.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$27.99

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

-14.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Papa John's International, Inc.PZZA	1,077	36.3x	14.8x
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ARCO	1,995	9.4x	10.4x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	1,975	16.1x	13.8x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,926	31.4x	42.9x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	1,763	18.2x	21.1x
Interface, Inc.TILE	1,644	14.4x	24.8x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,353	8.4x	12.2x
MasterBrand, Inc.MBC	1,158	43.2x	6.3x
Industry Median		16.1x	13.8x
(*) Profit after tax		31	73
Equity Value		492	1,352
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$15	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$27.99

-14.4%

Fair Value

$21.32

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

-34.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) has a fair value of $21.32 based on 10 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Papa John's International, Inc.PZZA	1,077	11.8x	11.8x
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ARCO	1,995	6.8x	6.8x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	1,975	9.5x	9.4x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,926	19.2x	21.0x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	1,763	9.1x	9.6x
Interface, Inc.TILE	1,644	9.3x	10.1x
Albany International Corp.AIN	1,606	35.1x	33.2x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,353	9.9x	9.8x
MasterBrand, Inc.MBC	1,158	10.3x	10.4x
Biglari Holdings Inc.BH	939	17.5x	8.1x
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary SharesHDL	830	7.9x	9.0x
Industry Median		9.7x	9.7x
(*) EBITDA		181	181
= Enterprise Value		1,765	1,752
(-) Net Debt		1,056	1,056
Equity Value		709	696
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$22	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$21.32

-34.8%

Fair Value

$51.13

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+56.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Papa John's International, Inc.PZZA	1,077	1.0x	1.0x
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ARCO	1,995	0.8x	0.8x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	1,975	1.2x	1.2x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,926	1.4x	1.5x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	1,763	3.1x	3.3x
Interface, Inc.TILE	1,644	1.3x	1.4x
Albany International Corp.AIN	1,606	1.6x	1.6x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,353	2.4x	2.4x
MasterBrand, Inc.MBC	1,158	0.8x	0.9x
Biglari Holdings Inc.BH	939	2.6x	1.2x
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary SharesHDL	830	1.0x	1.2x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		2,054	2,045
= Enterprise Value		2,756	2,725
(-) Net Debt		1,056	1,056
Equity Value		1,700	1,669
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$52	$51

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$51.13

+56.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$38.45

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+17.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.52Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 24.4 ÷ (42.3% + 4.9%) = 0.52

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	42.3%
Dividend Yield	+4.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.54
Fair Value	$38.45

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.90	—	—
FY2026E	$1.54	+70.9%	12
FY2027E	$1.82	+18.5%	11

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 42.3%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$120.0M	$3.40	—
FY2022	$67.8M	$1.89	-44.4%
FY2023	$82.1M	$2.48	+31.2%
FY2024	$83.5M	$2.54	+2.4%
FY2025	$30.5M	$0.90	-64.6%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -28.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$64.36

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

+96.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	199	199	199
(/) WACC	7.8%	6.3%	4.8%
Enterprise Value	2,562	3,176	4,178
(-) Net debt	1,056	1,056	1,056
Equity Value	1,506	2,120	3,122
(/) Outstanding shares	33	33	33
Fair Price	$45.71	$64.36	$94.77

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$27.82

Market Price

$32.70

Upside / Downside

-14.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.86

Dividend Yield

4.95%

Payout Ratio

200.3%

Dividend Coverage

0.50x

FCF Payout Ratio99.7%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.9%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.86	200.3%	+0.6%
2024	$1.85	72.5%	+4.7%
2023	$1.76	71.2%	+15.0%
2022	$1.53	80.8%	+34.3%
2021	$1.14	33.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.92	3.4%	0.9124	$1.75
2027	$1.98	3.4%	0.8325	$1.65
2028	$2.05	3.4%	0.7596	$1.56
2029	$2.12	3.4%	0.6931	$1.47
2030	$2.19	3.4%	0.6324	$1.39
Terminal Value	$2.25 DPS	2.5%		$20.01

PV of Projected Dividends$7.81

PV of Terminal Value$20.01

Fair Value per Share$27.82

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.4%	2.4%	3.4%	4.4%	5.4%
7.6%	$35	$37	$39	$41	$42
8.6%	$30	$31	$32	$34	$35
9.6%	$26	$27	$28	$29	$30
10.6%	$22	$23	$24	$25	$26
11.6%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24