Performance Food Group Company

PFGC

Consumer DefensiveFood DistributionNYSE

$95.83

Market Cap: $15.05B

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$53.68 – $1,412.87	$139.27	+62.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$71.39 – $1,707.41	$174.37	+102.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$61.69 – $175.84	$113.95	+32.6%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$92.63 – $275.48	$170.24	+98.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$37.95 – $96.08	$85.55	-0.5%
EV/EBITDA	$58.25 – $111.35	$95.06	+10.6%
EV/Revenue	$215.77 – $987.00	$759.22	+783.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$116.88 – $116.88	$116.88	+36.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$31.78 – $87.58	$52.63	-38.8%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$139.27

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+45.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Performance Food Group Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.8% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 17, DPO 20, DIO 25). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $139.27 per share, suggesting PFGC is undervalued by 45.3% at the current price of $95.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,380
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	369
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	464
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,213

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	381
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	501
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	156
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	1,175

Terminal Value						34,237
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	25,667

Enterprise Value	29,699
Projection Period	4,032	13.6%
Terminal Value	25,667	86.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917

Equity Value	21,781
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$139.27

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$231	$297	$409	$642	$1413
4.9%	$148	$177	$219	$282	$388
5.9%	$102	$118	$139	$167	$207
6.9%	$73	$83	$96	$111	$131
7.9%	$54	$60	$68	$78	$90

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$174.37

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+82.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Performance Food Group Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.8% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 17, DPO 20, DIO 25). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $174.37 per share, suggesting PFGC is undervalued by 82.0% at the current price of $95.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,579	1,807	2,016	2,192	2,320	2,378
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	423	484	539	586	621	636
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	449	483	528	585	649	665
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,451	2,773	3,083	3,363	3,590	3,680

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	436	499	557	605	641	657
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	573	656	732	796	842	863
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	829	811	744	625	457	468
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	613	807	1,050	1,336	1,650	1,691

Terminal Value											49,288
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	446	555	682	819	954	27,701

Enterprise Value	35,189
Projection Period	7,488	21.3%
Terminal Value	27,701	78.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917

Equity Value	27,272
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$174.37

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$305	$383	$516	$792	$1707
4.9%	$194	$228	$274	$346	$466
5.9%	$134	$152	$174	$205	$247
6.9%	$97	$107	$120	$136	$156
7.9%	$71	$78	$86	$95	$107

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$113.93

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+18.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Performance Food Group Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.8% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 17, DPO 20, DIO 25). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $113.95 per share, suggesting PFGC is undervalued by 18.9% at the current price of $95.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,380
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	369
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	464
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,213

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	—
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	—
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.1x
Terminal Value						28,951
WACC / Discount Rate	5.93%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	21,704

Enterprise Value	25,736
Projection Period	4,032	15.7%
Terminal Value	21,704	84.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917
Equity Value	17,818
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$114	+18.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x	17.1x
3.9%	$82	$106	$129	$152	$176
4.9%	$77	$99	$121	$144	$166
5.9%	$72	$93	$114	$135	$156
6.9%	$66	$87	$107	$127	$147
7.9%	$62	$81	$100	$120	$139

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$170.21

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+77.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Performance Food Group Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.8% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 17, DPO 20, DIO 25). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $170.24 per share, suggesting PFGC is undervalued by 77.7% at the current price of $95.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,579	1,807	2,016	2,192	2,320	2,378
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	423	484	539	586	621	636
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	449	483	528	585	649	665
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,451	2,773	3,083	3,363	3,590	3,680

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	436	499	557	605	641	—
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	573	656	732	796	842	—
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	829	811	744	625	457	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	613	807	1,050	1,336	1,650	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.1x
Terminal Value											48,130
WACC / Discount Rate	5.93%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	446	555	682	819	954	27,050

Enterprise Value	34,538
Projection Period	7,488	21.7%
Terminal Value	27,050	78.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917
Equity Value	26,621
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$170	+77.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x	17.1x
3.9%	$147	$179	$211	$243	$275
4.9%	$132	$161	$190	$219	$248
5.9%	$117	$144	$170	$197	$223
6.9%	$104	$128	$153	$177	$201
7.9%	$93	$115	$136	$158	$180

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$85.00

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

-11.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) has a fair value of $85.00 based on 9 comparable companies in the Food Distribution industry.

P/E Valuation — Food Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Performance Food Group CompanyPFGC	14,988	44.0x	20.7x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	24,860	26.2x	13.8x
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,978	47.4x	22.4x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	22,921	44.2x	—
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.KOF	20,802	17.4x	—
US Foods Holding Corp.USFD	20,268	30.9x	23.1x
Somnigroup International IncSGI	15,643	40.4x	22.6x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	13,637	17.3x	16.5x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	16.1x	17.7x
Celsius Holdings, Inc.CELH	9,314	144.5x	22.2x
Industry Median		30.9x	22.2x
(*) Profit after tax		340	723
Equity Value		10,520	16,068
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$67	$103

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$85.00

-11.3%

Fair Value

$95.43

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

-0.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) has a fair value of $95.43 based on 9 comparable companies in the Food Distribution industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Food Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Performance Food Group CompanyPFGC	14,988	14.9x	13.9x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	24,860	16.5x	21.9x
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,978	11.9x	12.1x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	22,921	6.0x	—
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.KOF	20,802	8.5x	—
US Foods Holding Corp.USFD	20,268	15.6x	15.5x
Somnigroup International IncSGI	15,643	22.8x	21.4x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	13,637	13.1x	11.4x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	11.1x	12.1x
Celsius Holdings, Inc.CELH	9,314	47.1x	34.9x
Industry Median		13.1x	15.5x
(*) EBITDA		1,535	1,647
= Enterprise Value		20,083	25,601
(-) Net Debt		7,917	7,917
Equity Value		12,166	17,684
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$78	$113

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$95.43

-0.4%

Fair Value

$761.38

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+694.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) has a fair value of $761.38 based on 9 comparable companies in the Food Distribution industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Food Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Performance Food Group CompanyPFGC	14,988	0.4x	0.3x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	24,860	0.6x	0.8x
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,978	0.6x	0.6x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	22,921	0.7x	—
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.KOF	20,802	1.6x	—
US Foods Holding Corp.USFD	20,268	0.7x	0.7x
Somnigroup International IncSGI	15,643	3.2x	3.0x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	13,637	2.6x	2.2x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	2.2x	2.4x
Celsius Holdings, Inc.CELH	9,314	3.8x	2.8x
Industry Median		1.6x	2.2x
(*) Revenue		63,299	67,895
= Enterprise Value		102,118	151,877
(-) Net Debt		7,917	7,917
Equity Value		94,201	143,960
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$602	$920

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$761.38

+694.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$116.88

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+22.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $116.88 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.68. The current PEG ratio is 0.62.

PEG Ratio

0.62Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 18.4 ÷ 29.5% = 0.62

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	29.5%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.68
Fair Value	$116.88

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.18	—	—
FY2026E	$4.68	+114.5%	9
FY2027E	$5.92	+26.6%	9
FY2028E	$7.10	+19.8%	9
FY2029E	$7.95	+12.0%	4
FY2030E	$7.93	-0.3%	4

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 29.5%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$40.7M	$0.31	—
FY2022	$112.5M	$0.74	+138.7%
FY2023	$397.2M	$2.54	+243.2%
FY2024	$435.9M	$2.79	+9.8%
FY2025	$340.2M	$2.18	-21.9%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 62.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$52.63

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

-45.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 5.9% and normalized earnings of $957.8M, the company has a fair value of $52.63 per share. The EPV range is $31.78 – $87.58 based on WACC sensitivity (4.4% – 7.4%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	958	958	958
(/) WACC	7.4%	5.9%	4.4%
Enterprise Value	12,888	16,148	21,614
(-) Net debt	7,917	7,917	7,917
Equity Value	4,971	8,231	13,697
(/) Outstanding shares	156	156	156
Fair Price	$31.78	$52.63	$87.58

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$53.68 – $1,412.87	$139.27	+62.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$71.39 – $1,707.41	$174.37	+102.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$61.69 – $175.84	$113.95	+32.6%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$92.63 – $275.48	$170.24	+98.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$37.95 – $96.08	$85.55	-0.5%
EV/EBITDA	$58.25 – $111.35	$95.06	+10.6%
EV/Revenue	$215.77 – $987.00	$759.22	+783.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$116.88 – $116.88	$116.88	+36.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$31.78 – $87.58	$52.63	-38.8%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$139.27

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+45.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,380
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	369
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	464
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,213

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	381
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	501
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	156
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	1,175

Terminal Value						34,237
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	25,667

Enterprise Value	29,699
Projection Period	4,032	13.6%
Terminal Value	25,667	86.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917

Equity Value	21,781
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$139.27

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$231	$297	$409	$642	$1413
4.9%	$148	$177	$219	$282	$388
5.9%	$102	$118	$139	$167	$207
6.9%	$73	$83	$96	$111	$131
7.9%	$54	$60	$68	$78	$90

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$174.37

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+82.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,579	1,807	2,016	2,192	2,320	2,378
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	423	484	539	586	621	636
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	449	483	528	585	649	665
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,451	2,773	3,083	3,363	3,590	3,680

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	436	499	557	605	641	657
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	573	656	732	796	842	863
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	829	811	744	625	457	468
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	613	807	1,050	1,336	1,650	1,691

Terminal Value											49,288
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	446	555	682	819	954	27,701

Enterprise Value	35,189
Projection Period	7,488	21.3%
Terminal Value	27,701	78.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917

Equity Value	27,272
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$174.37

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$305	$383	$516	$792	$1707
4.9%	$194	$228	$274	$346	$466
5.9%	$134	$152	$174	$205	$247
6.9%	$97	$107	$120	$136	$156
7.9%	$71	$78	$86	$95	$107

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$113.93

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+18.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Performance Food Group Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.8% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 17, DPO 20, DIO 25). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $113.95 per share, suggesting PFGC is undervalued by 18.9% at the current price of $95.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,380
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	369
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	464
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,213

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	—
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	—
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.1x
Terminal Value						28,951
WACC / Discount Rate	5.93%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	21,704

Enterprise Value	25,736
Projection Period	4,032	15.7%
Terminal Value	21,704	84.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917
Equity Value	17,818
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$114	+18.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x	17.1x
3.9%	$82	$106	$129	$152	$176
4.9%	$77	$99	$121	$144	$166
5.9%	$72	$93	$114	$135	$156
6.9%	$66	$87	$107	$127	$147
7.9%	$62	$81	$100	$120	$139

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$170.21

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+77.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Performance Food Group Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.8% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 17, DPO 20, DIO 25). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $170.24 per share, suggesting PFGC is undervalued by 77.7% at the current price of $95.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.93%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,115	1,187	1,228	1,304	1,347	1,579	1,807	2,016	2,192	2,320	2,378
(−) Net Interest	298	318	328	349	360	423	484	539	586	621	636
(+) D&A	315	358	401	437	452	449	483	528	585	649	665
EBITDA	1,728	1,863	1,958	2,090	2,159	2,451	2,773	3,083	3,363	3,590	3,680

(−) Tax	308	328	339	360	372	436	499	557	605	641	—
(−) CapEx	405	431	446	473	489	573	656	732	796	842	—
(−) ΔWC	319	259	144	272	152	829	811	744	625	457	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	696	845	1,029	984	1,146	613	807	1,050	1,336	1,650	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.1x
Terminal Value											48,130
WACC / Discount Rate	5.93%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	677	775	891	804	884	446	555	682	819	954	27,050

Enterprise Value	34,538
Projection Period	7,488	21.7%
Terminal Value	27,050	78.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,917
Equity Value	26,621
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$170	+77.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x	17.1x
3.9%	$147	$179	$211	$243	$275
4.9%	$132	$161	$190	$219	$248
5.9%	$117	$144	$170	$197	$223
6.9%	$104	$128	$153	$177	$201
7.9%	$93	$115	$136	$158	$180

Current price: $95.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$85.00

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

-11.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Food Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Performance Food Group CompanyPFGC	14,988	44.0x	20.7x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	24,860	26.2x	13.8x
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,978	47.4x	22.4x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	22,921	44.2x	—
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.KOF	20,802	17.4x	—
US Foods Holding Corp.USFD	20,268	30.9x	23.1x
Somnigroup International IncSGI	15,643	40.4x	22.6x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	13,637	17.3x	16.5x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	16.1x	17.7x
Celsius Holdings, Inc.CELH	9,314	144.5x	22.2x
Industry Median		30.9x	22.2x
(*) Profit after tax		340	723
Equity Value		10,520	16,068
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$67	$103

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$85.00

-11.3%

Fair Value

$95.43

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

-0.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Food Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Performance Food Group CompanyPFGC	14,988	14.9x	13.9x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	24,860	16.5x	21.9x
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,978	11.9x	12.1x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	22,921	6.0x	—
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.KOF	20,802	8.5x	—
US Foods Holding Corp.USFD	20,268	15.6x	15.5x
Somnigroup International IncSGI	15,643	22.8x	21.4x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	13,637	13.1x	11.4x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	11.1x	12.1x
Celsius Holdings, Inc.CELH	9,314	47.1x	34.9x
Industry Median		13.1x	15.5x
(*) EBITDA		1,535	1,647
= Enterprise Value		20,083	25,601
(-) Net Debt		7,917	7,917
Equity Value		12,166	17,684
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$78	$113

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$95.43

-0.4%

Fair Value

$761.38

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+694.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Food Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Performance Food Group CompanyPFGC	14,988	0.4x	0.3x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	24,860	0.6x	0.8x
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,978	0.6x	0.6x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	22,921	0.7x	—
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.KOF	20,802	1.6x	—
US Foods Holding Corp.USFD	20,268	0.7x	0.7x
Somnigroup International IncSGI	15,643	3.2x	3.0x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	13,637	2.6x	2.2x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	2.2x	2.4x
Celsius Holdings, Inc.CELH	9,314	3.8x	2.8x
Industry Median		1.6x	2.2x
(*) Revenue		63,299	67,895
= Enterprise Value		102,118	151,877
(-) Net Debt		7,917	7,917
Equity Value		94,201	143,960
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$602	$920

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$761.38

+694.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$116.88

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

+22.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $116.88 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.68. The current PEG ratio is 0.62.

PEG Ratio

0.62Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 18.4 ÷ 29.5% = 0.62

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	29.5%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.68
Fair Value	$116.88

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.18	—	—
FY2026E	$4.68	+114.5%	9
FY2027E	$5.92	+26.6%	9
FY2028E	$7.10	+19.8%	9
FY2029E	$7.95	+12.0%	4
FY2030E	$7.93	-0.3%	4

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 29.5%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$40.7M	$0.31	—
FY2022	$112.5M	$0.74	+138.7%
FY2023	$397.2M	$2.54	+243.2%
FY2024	$435.9M	$2.79	+9.8%
FY2025	$340.2M	$2.18	-21.9%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 62.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$52.63

Market Price

$95.83

Upside / Downside

-45.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	958	958	958
(/) WACC	7.4%	5.9%	4.4%
Enterprise Value	12,888	16,148	21,614
(-) Net debt	7,917	7,917	7,917
Equity Value	4,971	8,231	13,697
(/) Outstanding shares	156	156	156
Fair Price	$31.78	$52.63	$87.58