Omada Health

OMDA

HealthcareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesNASDAQ

$15.86

Market Cap: $934.56M

Omada Health (OMDA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$3.56 – $31.92	$12.43	-1.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$8.35 – $74.65	$28.42	+125.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$9.18 – $18.60	$14.65	+16.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Omada Health (OMDA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$28.42

Market Price

$15.86

Upside / Downside

+79.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.6% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.7%, Omada Health (OMDA) has an intrinsic value of $28.42 per share (range: $8.35 – $74.65).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	319	22.6%	-1.0%	-3	-3	11	(8)	11	-12	-11
2027	383	20.1%	2.6%	10	8	13	(11)	8	2	1
2028	453	18.3%	6.2%	28	22	15	(15)	9	14	11
2029	589	30.0%	9.8%	57	45	20	(21)	17	27	20
2030	766	30.0%	13.3%	102	81	26	(31)	22	53	37
2031	996	30.0%	13.3%	133	105	33	(44)	29	65	41
2032	1,291	29.6%	13.3%	172	136	43	(62)	37	80	46
2033	1,587	22.9%	13.3%	212	167	53	(83)	37	100	54
2034	1,845	16.3%	13.3%	246	194	62	(103)	33	120	59
2035	2,023	9.7%	13.3%	270	213	68	(121)	22	137	62

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)320

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,473

PV of Terminal Value1,118

Enterprise Value1,439

(–) Net Debt-222

Equity Value1,661

(÷) Shares Outstanding58

Fair Value per Share$28.42

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$16	$30	$45	$60	$75
7.7%	$13	$24	$35	$46	$57
8.7%	$11	$20	$28	$37	$46
9.7%	$9	$17	$24	$31	$38
10.7%	$8	$14	$21	$27	$33

Current price: $15.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Omada Health (OMDA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$12.43

Market Price

$15.86

Upside / Downside

-21.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	319	22.6%	-1.0%	-3	-3	11	(9)	11	-13	-13
2027	383	20.1%	2.6%	10	8	13	(14)	8	-1	-1
2028	453	18.3%	6.2%	28	22	15	(20)	9	8	7
2029	589	30.0%	9.8%	57	45	20	(31)	17	17	13
2030	766	30.0%	13.3%	102	81	26	(46)	22	38	26

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)32

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)688

PV of Terminal Value472

Enterprise Value504

(–) Net Debt-222

Equity Value726

(÷) Shares Outstanding58

Fair Value per Share$12.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$4	$11	$18	$25	$32
7.7%	$4	$9	$15	$20	$25
8.7%	$4	$8	$12	$17	$21
9.7%	$4	$7	$11	$15	$18
10.7%	$4	$7	$10	$13	$16

Current price: $15.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$14.65

Market Price

$15.86

Upside / Downside

-7.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Omada Health (OMDA) has a fair value of $14.65 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Healthcare Information Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Omada HealthOMDA	927	2.7x	3.4x
10x Genomics, Inc.TXG	2,796	3.9x	4.0x
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.BCRX	1,988	2.7x	3.7x
Omnicell, Inc.OMCL	1,550	1.3x	1.4x
UFP Technologies, Inc.UFPT	1,481	2.7x	3.9x
Maze Therapeutics, Inc.MAZE	1,442	7.6x	169.5x
Progyny, Inc.PGNY	1,374	1.0x	0.9x
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.XERS	1,043	3.3x	2.5x
Teladoc Health, Inc.TDOC	949	0.5x	0.5x
Schrödinger, Inc.SDGR	850	2.8x	2.9x
Phreesia, Inc.PHR	552	1.2x	1.2x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.7x
(*) Revenue		260	210
= Enterprise Value		702	566
(-) Net Debt		-222	-222
Equity Value		924	788
(/) Outstanding shares		58	58
Fair Price		$16	$13

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.65

-7.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$3.56 – $31.92

$12.43

-1.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$8.35 – $74.65

$28.42

+125.9%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$9.18 – $18.60

$14.65

+16.5%

DCF Analysis

Omada Health (OMDA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$28.42

Market Price

$15.86

Upside / Downside

+79.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	319	22.6%	-1.0%	-3	-3	11	(8)	11	-12	-11
2027	383	20.1%	2.6%	10	8	13	(11)	8	2	1
2028	453	18.3%	6.2%	28	22	15	(15)	9	14	11
2029	589	30.0%	9.8%	57	45	20	(21)	17	27	20
2030	766	30.0%	13.3%	102	81	26	(31)	22	53	37
2031	996	30.0%	13.3%	133	105	33	(44)	29	65	41
2032	1,291	29.6%	13.3%	172	136	43	(62)	37	80	46
2033	1,587	22.9%	13.3%	212	167	53	(83)	37	100	54
2034	1,845	16.3%	13.3%	246	194	62	(103)	33	120	59
2035	2,023	9.7%	13.3%	270	213	68	(121)	22	137	62

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)320

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,473

PV of Terminal Value1,118

Enterprise Value1,439

(–) Net Debt-222

Equity Value1,661

(÷) Shares Outstanding58

Fair Value per Share$28.42

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$16	$30	$45	$60	$75
7.7%	$13	$24	$35	$46	$57
8.7%	$11	$20	$28	$37	$46
9.7%	$9	$17	$24	$31	$38
10.7%	$8	$14	$21	$27	$33

Current price: $15.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$14.65

Market Price

$15.86

Upside / Downside

-7.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Omada HealthOMDA	927	2.7x	3.4x
10x Genomics, Inc.TXG	2,796	3.9x	4.0x
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.BCRX	1,988	2.7x	3.7x
Omnicell, Inc.OMCL	1,550	1.3x	1.4x
UFP Technologies, Inc.UFPT	1,481	2.7x	3.9x
Maze Therapeutics, Inc.MAZE	1,442	7.6x	169.5x
Progyny, Inc.PGNY	1,374	1.0x	0.9x
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.XERS	1,043	3.3x	2.5x
Teladoc Health, Inc.TDOC	949	0.5x	0.5x
Schrödinger, Inc.SDGR	850	2.8x	2.9x
Phreesia, Inc.PHR	552	1.2x	1.2x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.7x
(*) Revenue		260	210
= Enterprise Value		702	566
(-) Net Debt		-222	-222
Equity Value		924	788
(/) Outstanding shares		58	58
Fair Price		$16	$13

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.65

-7.6%