Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.

NXDR

Communication ServicesInternet Content & InformationNYSE

$2.10

Market Cap: $812.83M

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.03 – $2.81	$0.32	-77.3%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.02 – $3.38	$0.54	-62.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.20 – $2.75	$0.40	-71.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.54

Market Price

$2.10

Upside / Downside

-74.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -27.9% to a target of 10.4% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.2%, Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) has an intrinsic value of $0.54 per share (range: $0.02 – $3.38).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	275	6.7%	-20.3%	-56	-56	5	(5)	1	-56	-54
2027	303	10.3%	-12.6%	-38	-38	6	(7)	3	-42	-38
2028	334	10.3%	-4.9%	-16	-16	7	(9)	4	-23	-19
2029	354	5.7%	2.8%	10	8	7	(11)	2	1	1
2030	379	7.2%	10.4%	39	31	7	(14)	3	22	16
2031	405	6.8%	10.4%	42	33	8	(17)	3	21	15
2032	429	6.1%	10.4%	45	35	8	(20)	3	21	13
2033	452	5.3%	10.4%	47	37	9	(23)	3	20	12
2034	473	4.5%	10.4%	49	39	9	(26)	2	20	11
2035	490	3.8%	10.4%	51	40	10	(29)	2	18	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-35

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)452

PV of Terminal Value234

Enterprise Value199

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value207

(÷) Shares Outstanding386

Fair Value per Share$0.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
6.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
7.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
8.2%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.2%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $2.10. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.32

Market Price

$2.10

Upside / Downside

-84.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	275	6.7%	-20.3%	-56	-56	5	(6)	1	-58	-56
2027	303	10.3%	-12.6%	-38	-38	6	(10)	3	-45	-41
2028	334	10.3%	-4.9%	-16	-16	7	(14)	4	-27	-23
2029	354	5.7%	2.8%	10	8	7	(18)	2	-6	-4
2030	379	7.2%	10.4%	39	31	7	(23)	3	13	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-115

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)315

PV of Terminal Value231

Enterprise Value116

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value124

(÷) Shares Outstanding386

Fair Value per Share$0.32

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
6.2%	$-0	$-0	$1	$1	$2
7.2%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
8.2%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.2%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.10. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.41

Market Price

$2.10

Upside / Downside

-80.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) has a fair value of $0.41 based on 3 comparable companies in the Internet Content & Information industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Internet Content & Information

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.NXDR	811	3.1x	2.8x
Boston Omaha CorporationBOC	389	4.1x	4.3x
The Beachbody Company, Inc.BODI	83	0.3x	0.2x
Teads Holding Co.TEAD	68	0.4x	0.6x
Industry Median		0.4x	0.6x
(*) Revenue		258	283
= Enterprise Value		116	183
(-) Net Debt		-8	-8
Equity Value		124	191
(/) Outstanding shares		386	386
Fair Price		$0	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.41

-80.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.03 – $2.81

$0.32

-77.3%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.02 – $3.38

$0.54

-62.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.20 – $2.75

$0.40

-71.6%

DCF Analysis

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.54

Market Price

$2.10

Upside / Downside

-74.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	275	6.7%	-20.3%	-56	-56	5	(5)	1	-56	-54
2027	303	10.3%	-12.6%	-38	-38	6	(7)	3	-42	-38
2028	334	10.3%	-4.9%	-16	-16	7	(9)	4	-23	-19
2029	354	5.7%	2.8%	10	8	7	(11)	2	1	1
2030	379	7.2%	10.4%	39	31	7	(14)	3	22	16
2031	405	6.8%	10.4%	42	33	8	(17)	3	21	15
2032	429	6.1%	10.4%	45	35	8	(20)	3	21	13
2033	452	5.3%	10.4%	47	37	9	(23)	3	20	12
2034	473	4.5%	10.4%	49	39	9	(26)	2	20	11
2035	490	3.8%	10.4%	51	40	10	(29)	2	18	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-35

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)452

PV of Terminal Value234

Enterprise Value199

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value207

(÷) Shares Outstanding386

Fair Value per Share$0.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
6.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
7.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
8.2%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.2%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $2.10. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.41

Market Price

$2.10

Upside / Downside

-80.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Internet Content & Information

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.NXDR	811	3.1x	2.8x
Boston Omaha CorporationBOC	389	4.1x	4.3x
The Beachbody Company, Inc.BODI	83	0.3x	0.2x
Teads Holding Co.TEAD	68	0.4x	0.6x
Industry Median		0.4x	0.6x
(*) Revenue		258	283
= Enterprise Value		116	183
(-) Net Debt		-8	-8
Equity Value		124	191
(/) Outstanding shares		386	386
Fair Price		$0	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.41

-80.6%