Natera, Inc.

NTRA

HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchNASDAQ

$194.24

Market Cap: $27.53B

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 05:31

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.23 – $66.28	$14.10	-92.7%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$7.44 – $150.35	$37.60	-80.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$60.80 – $111.58	$84.24	-56.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$37.60

Market Price

$194.24

Upside / Downside

-80.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -13.4% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.5%, Natera, Inc. (NTRA) has an intrinsic value of $37.60 per share (range: $7.44 – $150.35).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,670	15.8%	-8.1%	-217	-217	42	(134)	263	-571	-548
2027	3,193	19.6%	-2.8%	-89	-89	50	(164)	116	-319	-282
2028	3,802	19.1%	2.5%	97	76	60	(199)	136	-198	-162
2029	4,371	15.0%	7.9%	344	272	69	(233)	127	-20	-15
2030	5,029	15.0%	13.2%	663	524	79	(274)	147	183	126
2031	6,538	30.0%	13.2%	862	681	103	(364)	336	85	54
2032	8,284	26.7%	13.2%	1,093	863	131	(470)	389	135	79
2033	10,006	20.8%	13.2%	1,320	1,043	158	(578)	383	239	129
2034	11,492	14.9%	13.2%	1,516	1,197	181	(677)	331	371	185
2035	12,518	8.9%	13.2%	1,651	1,304	197	(751)	228	522	240

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-193

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)9,731

PV of Terminal Value4,472

Enterprise Value4,279

(–) Net Debt-862

Equity Value5,141

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$37.60

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$-8	$25	$67	$109	$150
7.5%	$-8	$17	$49	$80	$112
8.5%	$-8	$13	$38	$62	$87
9.5%	$-7	$10	$30	$50	$71
10.5%	$-7	$7	$24	$41	$59

Current price: $194.24. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$14.10

Market Price

$194.24

Upside / Downside

-92.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,670	15.8%	-8.1%	-217	-217	42	(137)	263	-574	-551
2027	3,193	19.6%	-2.8%	-89	-89	50	(171)	116	-326	-288
2028	3,802	19.1%	2.5%	97	76	60	(211)	136	-211	-172
2029	4,371	15.0%	7.9%	344	272	69	(253)	127	-39	-29
2030	5,029	15.0%	13.2%	663	524	79	(302)	147	155	107

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-933

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,889

PV of Terminal Value1,999

Enterprise Value1,066

(–) Net Debt-862

Equity Value1,928

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$14.10

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$-4	$3	$24	$45	$66
7.5%	$-4	$2	$18	$34	$50
8.5%	$-4	$1	$14	$27	$40
9.5%	$-4	$1	$11	$22	$33
10.5%	$-4	$0	$9	$19	$28

Current price: $194.24. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$84.24

Market Price

$194.24

Upside / Downside

-56.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Natera, Inc. (NTRA) has a fair value of $84.24 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Natera, Inc.NTRA	26,557	11.1x	9.6x
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedTEVA	41,931	3.2x	3.4x
IQVIA Holdings Inc.IQV	29,827	2.7x	2.5x
DexCom, Inc.DXCM	23,388	5.1x	4.6x
Mettler-Toledo International Inc.MTD	22,855	6.2x	5.9x
Waters CorporationWAT	22,846	7.5x	3.7x
Illumina, Inc.ILMN	21,466	5.2x	4.9x
STERIS plcSTE	20,974	4.2x	4.2x
Quest Diagnostics IncorporatedDGX	20,743	2.5x	2.5x
Industry Median		4.7x	4.0x
(*) Revenue		2,306	2,670
= Enterprise Value		10,760	10,551
(-) Net Debt		-862	-862
Equity Value		11,622	11,413
(/) Outstanding shares		137	137
Fair Price		$85	$83

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$84.24

-56.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.23 – $66.28

$14.10

-92.7%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$7.44 – $150.35

$37.60

-80.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$60.80 – $111.58

$84.24

-56.6%

DCF Analysis

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$37.60

Market Price

$194.24

Upside / Downside

-80.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,670	15.8%	-8.1%	-217	-217	42	(134)	263	-571	-548
2027	3,193	19.6%	-2.8%	-89	-89	50	(164)	116	-319	-282
2028	3,802	19.1%	2.5%	97	76	60	(199)	136	-198	-162
2029	4,371	15.0%	7.9%	344	272	69	(233)	127	-20	-15
2030	5,029	15.0%	13.2%	663	524	79	(274)	147	183	126
2031	6,538	30.0%	13.2%	862	681	103	(364)	336	85	54
2032	8,284	26.7%	13.2%	1,093	863	131	(470)	389	135	79
2033	10,006	20.8%	13.2%	1,320	1,043	158	(578)	383	239	129
2034	11,492	14.9%	13.2%	1,516	1,197	181	(677)	331	371	185
2035	12,518	8.9%	13.2%	1,651	1,304	197	(751)	228	522	240

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-193

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)9,731

PV of Terminal Value4,472

Enterprise Value4,279

(–) Net Debt-862

Equity Value5,141

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$37.60

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$-8	$25	$67	$109	$150
7.5%	$-8	$17	$49	$80	$112
8.5%	$-8	$13	$38	$62	$87
9.5%	$-7	$10	$30	$50	$71
10.5%	$-7	$7	$24	$41	$59

Current price: $194.24. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$84.24

Market Price

$194.24

Upside / Downside

-56.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Natera, Inc.NTRA	26,557	11.1x	9.6x
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedTEVA	41,931	3.2x	3.4x
IQVIA Holdings Inc.IQV	29,827	2.7x	2.5x
DexCom, Inc.DXCM	23,388	5.1x	4.6x
Mettler-Toledo International Inc.MTD	22,855	6.2x	5.9x
Waters CorporationWAT	22,846	7.5x	3.7x
Illumina, Inc.ILMN	21,466	5.2x	4.9x
STERIS plcSTE	20,974	4.2x	4.2x
Quest Diagnostics IncorporatedDGX	20,743	2.5x	2.5x
Industry Median		4.7x	4.0x
(*) Revenue		2,306	2,670
= Enterprise Value		10,760	10,551
(-) Net Debt		-862	-862
Equity Value		11,622	11,413
(/) Outstanding shares		137	137
Fair Price		$85	$83

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$84.24

-56.6%