Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary shares's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 14.9% to 5.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 5, DIO 0). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (108% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 28.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $26.69 per share, suggesting NPT is undervalued by 1834.3% at the current price of $1.38.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) Net Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 13 | 18 | 24 | 30 | 32 | 32 |
| EBITDA | 13 | 18 | 24 | 31 | 32 | 33 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 26 | 30 | 33 | 35 | 37 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -18 | -14 | -11 | -6 | -6 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 28.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 938 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.00% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -17 | -12 | -9 | -5 | -5 | 669 |
| Enterprise Value | 621 | |||||
| Projection Period | -48 | -7.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 669 | 107.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 26 | |||||
| Equity Value | 595 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 22M | |||||
| Fair Price | $27 | +1834.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 24.6x | 26.6x | 28.6x | 30.6x | 32.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| 6.0% | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| 7.0% | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| 8.0% | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| 9.0% | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
Current price: $1.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary shares's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 15.9% to 4.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 5, DIO 0). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (115% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 28.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $28.82 per share, suggesting NPT is undervalued by 1988.4% at the current price of $1.38.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) Net Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (+) D&A | 13 | 18 | 24 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 52 |
| EBITDA | 13 | 18 | 24 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 51 | 53 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 27 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 58 | 60 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -18 | -15 | -13 | -10 | -12 | -14 | -14 | -13 | -12 | -10 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 28.6x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 1,508 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.00% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -18 | -13 | -11 | -8 | -9 | -10 | -9 | -8 | -7 | -5 | 766 |
| Enterprise Value | 668 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -98 | -14.7% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 766 | 114.7% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 26 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 643 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 22M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $29 | +1988.7% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 24.6x | 26.6x | 28.6x | 30.6x | 32.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
| 6.0% | $27 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $37 |
| 7.0% | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| 8.0% | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| 9.0% | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
Current price: $1.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary shares (NPT) has a fair value of $4.79 based on 2 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary sharesNPT | 31 | 32.2x | — |
| Empro Group Inc. Ordinary shares | 143 | 184.9x | — |
| Ambitions Enterprise Management Co. L.L.C | 37 | 39.1x | — |
| Industry Median | 112.0x | — | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 1 | ||
| Equity Value | 107 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 22 | ||
| Fair Price | $5 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary shares (NPT) has a fair value of $4.03 based on 4 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary sharesNPT | 31 | 14.0x | — |
| Torrid Holdings Inc. | 219 | 7.0x | 6.4x |
| Empro Group Inc. Ordinary shares | 143 | 95.4x | — |
| a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. | 119 | 28.2x | 29.5x |
| Ambitions Enterprise Management Co. L.L.C | 37 | 29.0x | — |
| Industry Median | 28.6x | 18.0x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 4 | ||
| = Enterprise Value | 115 | ||
| (-) Net Debt | 26 | ||
| Equity Value | 90 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 22 | ||
| Fair Price | $4 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary shares (NPT) has a fair value of $37.93 based on 8 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texxon Holding Limited Ordinary sharesNPT | 31 | 0.1x | — |
| Torrid Holdings Inc. | 219 | 0.6x | 0.6x |
| 1stdibs.Com, Inc. | 219 | 2.4x | 2.5x |
| Empro Group Inc. Ordinary shares | 143 | 26.3x | — |
| a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. | 119 | 0.5x | 0.5x |
| BARK, Inc. | 85 | 0.2x | 0.2x |
| The Children's Place, Inc. | 80 | 0.5x | 0.4x |
| Ambitions Enterprise Management Co. L.L.C | 37 | 2.0x | — |
| Robo.ai Inc. | 10 | 2.5x | — |
| Industry Median | 1.3x | 0.5x | |
| (*) Revenue | 673 | ||
| = Enterprise Value | 871 | ||
| (-) Net Debt | 26 | ||
| Equity Value | 846 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 22 | ||
| Fair Price | $38 | ||
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0%, the company has a fair value of $0.34 based on TTM EPS (FY2023) of $0.04.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | -52.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2023) | $0.04 |
| Fair Value | $0.34 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $-558,378 | $-0.03 | — |
| FY2022 | $2.0M | $0.09 | — |
| FY2023 | $953,560 | $0.04 | -52.8% |
2Y Historical EPS CAGR: -52.8%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.