Marqeta, Inc.

TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNASDAQ

$4.05

Market Cap: $1.72B

Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.57 – $10.98	$5.28	+31.9%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.41 – $10.61	$5.04	+26.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.89 – $5.89	$4.86	+21.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.04

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

+24.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.7% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) has an intrinsic value of $5.04 per share (range: $2.41 – $10.61).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

2.8%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	709	13.4%	-1.7%	-12	-12	15	(9)	14	-21	-20
2027	828	16.9%	1.2%	10	10	17	(15)	-14	26	23
2028	966	16.6%	4.1%	40	39	20	(22)	-16	53	43
2029	1,212	25.5%	7.0%	85	83	25	(34)	-29	103	76
2030	1,454	20.0%	10.0%	145	141	30	(49)	-29	151	103
2031	1,520	4.5%	10.0%	152	147	32	(59)	-8	128	80
2032	1,584	4.2%	10.0%	158	154	33	(70)	-8	124	71
2033	1,647	3.9%	10.0%	164	160	34	(81)	-7	120	63
2034	1,706	3.6%	10.0%	170	165	36	(93)	-7	115	55
2035	1,763	3.3%	10.0%	176	171	37	(106)	-7	109	48

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)542

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,874

PV of Terminal Value829

Enterprise Value1,370

(–) Net Debt-960

Equity Value2,330

(÷) Shares Outstanding462

Fair Value per Share$5.04

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$3	$5	$7	$9	$11
8.0%	$3	$4	$6	$7	$9
9.0%	$2	$4	$5	$6	$8
10.0%	$2	$4	$5	$6	$7
11.0%	$2	$3	$4	$5	$6

Current price: $4.05. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -11.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.28

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

+30.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

2.8%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	709	13.4%	-1.7%	-12	-12	15	(13)	14	-25	-24
2027	828	16.9%	1.2%	10	10	17	(24)	-14	18	15
2028	966	16.6%	4.1%	40	39	20	(38)	-16	38	30
2029	1,212	25.5%	7.0%	85	83	25	(60)	-29	78	57
2030	1,454	20.0%	10.0%	145	141	30	(87)	-29	113	77

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)156

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,947

PV of Terminal Value1,323

Enterprise Value1,479

(–) Net Debt-960

Equity Value2,439

(÷) Shares Outstanding462

Fair Value per Share$5.28

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$3	$5	$7	$9	$11
8.0%	$3	$5	$6	$8	$9
9.0%	$3	$4	$5	$7	$8
10.0%	$3	$4	$5	$6	$7
11.0%	$3	$3	$4	$5	$6

Current price: $4.05. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.86

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

+19.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) has a fair value of $4.86 based on 10 comparable companies in the Software - Infrastructure industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Infrastructure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Marqeta, Inc.MQ	1,874	1.5x	1.3x
Teradata CorporationTDC	2,391	1.5x	1.4x
NetScout Systems, Inc.NTCT	2,338	2.4x	2.3x
CSG Systems International, Inc.CSGS	2,283	2.2x	2.3x
EverCommerce Inc.EVCM	2,172	4.4x	3.7x
EVERTEC, Inc.EVTC	1,801	2.8x	3.1x
Alkami Technology, Inc.ALKT	1,781	4.7x	6.2x
Payoneer Global Inc.PAYO	1,754	1.3x	1.5x
Sonos, Inc.SONO	1,643	1.1x	1.0x
Five9, Inc.FIVN	1,187	1.6x	1.4x
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.PGY	1,002	1.3x	1.6x
Industry Median		1.9x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		625	708
= Enterprise Value		1,177	1,395
(-) Net Debt		-960	-960
Equity Value		2,137	2,355
(/) Outstanding shares		462	462
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.86

+19.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$2.57 – $10.98

$5.28

+31.9%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.41 – $10.61

$5.04

+26.1%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.89 – $5.89

$4.86

+21.5%

DCF Analysis

Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.04

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

+24.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

2.8%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	709	13.4%	-1.7%	-12	-12	15	(9)	14	-21	-20
2027	828	16.9%	1.2%	10	10	17	(15)	-14	26	23
2028	966	16.6%	4.1%	40	39	20	(22)	-16	53	43
2029	1,212	25.5%	7.0%	85	83	25	(34)	-29	103	76
2030	1,454	20.0%	10.0%	145	141	30	(49)	-29	151	103
2031	1,520	4.5%	10.0%	152	147	32	(59)	-8	128	80
2032	1,584	4.2%	10.0%	158	154	33	(70)	-8	124	71
2033	1,647	3.9%	10.0%	164	160	34	(81)	-7	120	63
2034	1,706	3.6%	10.0%	170	165	36	(93)	-7	115	55
2035	1,763	3.3%	10.0%	176	171	37	(106)	-7	109	48

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)542

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,874

PV of Terminal Value829

Enterprise Value1,370

(–) Net Debt-960

Equity Value2,330

(÷) Shares Outstanding462

Fair Value per Share$5.04

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$3	$5	$7	$9	$11
8.0%	$3	$4	$6	$7	$9
9.0%	$2	$4	$5	$6	$8
10.0%	$2	$4	$5	$6	$7
11.0%	$2	$3	$4	$5	$6

Current price: $4.05. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.86

Market Price

$4.06

Upside / Downside

+19.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) has a fair value of $4.86 based on 10 comparable companies in the Software - Infrastructure industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Infrastructure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Marqeta, Inc.MQ	1,874	1.5x	1.3x
Teradata CorporationTDC	2,391	1.5x	1.4x
NetScout Systems, Inc.NTCT	2,338	2.4x	2.3x
CSG Systems International, Inc.CSGS	2,283	2.2x	2.3x
EverCommerce Inc.EVCM	2,172	4.4x	3.7x
EVERTEC, Inc.EVTC	1,801	2.8x	3.1x
Alkami Technology, Inc.ALKT	1,781	4.7x	6.2x
Payoneer Global Inc.PAYO	1,754	1.3x	1.5x
Sonos, Inc.SONO	1,643	1.1x	1.0x
Five9, Inc.FIVN	1,187	1.6x	1.4x
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.PGY	1,002	1.3x	1.6x
Industry Median		1.9x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		625	708
= Enterprise Value		1,177	1,395
(-) Net Debt		-960	-960
Equity Value		2,137	2,355
(/) Outstanding shares		462	462
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.86

+19.9%