Spectral AI, Inc.

MDAI

HealthcareMedical - DevicesNASDAQ

$2.31

Market Cap: $73.51M

Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 08:38

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.02 – $1.33	$0.35	-84.9%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.06 – $1.47	$0.43	-81.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.42 – $1.91	$1.36	-41.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.43

Market Price

$2.31

Upside / Downside

-81.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -43.8% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.2%, Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) has an intrinsic value of $0.43 per share (range: $0.06 – $1.47).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-43.8%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	19	-4.0%	-32.4%	-6	-6	0	(0)	1	-6	-6
2027	23	23.5%	-21.0%	-5	-5	1	(0)	-0	-5	-4
2028	8	-63.9%	-9.6%	-1	-1	0	(0)	0	-1	-1
2029	13	53.6%	1.8%	0	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2030	18	41.1%	13.2%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2031	19	6.0%	13.2%	3	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2032	20	5.4%	13.2%	3	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2033	21	4.8%	13.2%	3	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2034	22	4.2%	13.2%	3	2	1	(1)	-0	2	1
2035	23	3.6%	13.2%	3	2	1	(1)	-0	2	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-5

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)26

PV of Terminal Value11

Enterprise Value6

(–) Net Debt-5

Equity Value11

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$0.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.2%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
8.2%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
9.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
10.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
11.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.31. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -1.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.35

Market Price

$2.31

Upside / Downside

-84.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-43.8%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	19	-4.0%	-32.4%	-6	-6	0	(0)	1	-7	-6
2027	23	23.5%	-21.0%	-5	-5	1	(1)	-0	-5	-4
2028	8	-63.9%	-9.6%	-1	-1	0	(0)	0	-1	-1
2029	13	53.6%	1.8%	0	0	0	(1)	-0	-0	-0
2030	18	41.1%	13.2%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-11

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)22

PV of Terminal Value15

Enterprise Value4

(–) Net Debt-5

Equity Value9

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$0.35

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.2%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
8.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
9.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
10.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$1
11.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.31. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -1.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.36

Market Price

$2.31

Upside / Downside

-41.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) has a fair value of $1.36 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Devices industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Spectral AI, Inc.MDAI	61	2.8x	3.0x
Century Therapeutics, Inc.IPSC	198	1.6x	38.1x
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.KPTI	74	1.7x	1.8x
Sensus Healthcare, Inc.SRTS	68	1.7x	1.5x
Coeptis Therapeutics, Inc.COEP	58	38.3x	14.9x
electroCore, Inc.ECOR	53	1.7x	1.3x
TELA Bio, Inc.TELA	49	0.7x	0.7x
Cytosorbents CorporationCTSO	38	1.6x	1.5x
IceCure Medical LtdICCM	16	2.3x	1.1x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		20	19
= Enterprise Value		33	28
(-) Net Debt		-5	-5
Equity Value		38	34
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.36

-41.1%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.02 – $1.33

$0.35

-84.9%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.06 – $1.47

$0.43

-81.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.42 – $1.91

$1.36

-41.1%

DCF Analysis

Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.43

Market Price

$2.31

Upside / Downside

-81.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-43.8%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	19	-4.0%	-32.4%	-6	-6	0	(0)	1	-6	-6
2027	23	23.5%	-21.0%	-5	-5	1	(0)	-0	-5	-4
2028	8	-63.9%	-9.6%	-1	-1	0	(0)	0	-1	-1
2029	13	53.6%	1.8%	0	0	0	(0)	-0	0	0
2030	18	41.1%	13.2%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2031	19	6.0%	13.2%	3	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2032	20	5.4%	13.2%	3	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2033	21	4.8%	13.2%	3	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2034	22	4.2%	13.2%	3	2	1	(1)	-0	2	1
2035	23	3.6%	13.2%	3	2	1	(1)	-0	2	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-5

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)26

PV of Terminal Value11

Enterprise Value6

(–) Net Debt-5

Equity Value11

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$0.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.2%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
8.2%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
9.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
10.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
11.2%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.31. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -1.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.36

Market Price

$2.31

Upside / Downside

-41.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) has a fair value of $1.36 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Devices industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Spectral AI, Inc.MDAI	61	2.8x	3.0x
Century Therapeutics, Inc.IPSC	198	1.6x	38.1x
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.KPTI	74	1.7x	1.8x
Sensus Healthcare, Inc.SRTS	68	1.7x	1.5x
Coeptis Therapeutics, Inc.COEP	58	38.3x	14.9x
electroCore, Inc.ECOR	53	1.7x	1.3x
TELA Bio, Inc.TELA	49	0.7x	0.7x
Cytosorbents CorporationCTSO	38	1.6x	1.5x
IceCure Medical LtdICCM	16	2.3x	1.1x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		20	19
= Enterprise Value		33	28
(-) Net Debt		-5	-5
Equity Value		38	34
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.36

-41.1%