Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNYSE

$40.34

Market Cap: $5.57B

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 22, 2026 22:17

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$45.05 – $841.18	$100.33	+122.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$54.27 – $934.67	$115.74	+157.1%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$24.13 – $107.31	$62.10	+38.0%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$38.27 – $148.73	$84.76	+88.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$25.22 – $57.49	$28.33	-37.1%
EV/EBITDA	$26.76 – $70.98	$33.78	-24.9%
EV/Revenue	$20.61 – $44.16	$31.27	-30.5%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$36.45 – $36.45	$36.45	-19.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$9.02 – $34.22	$18.46	-59.0%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$26.18 – $68.85	$39.36	-12.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$100.33

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

+148.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 4.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 42, DPO 52, DIO 76). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $100.33 per share, suggesting LW is undervalued by 148.7% at the current price of $40.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.98%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	707	688	705	730	758	777
(−) Net Interest	184	179	183	190	197	202
(+) D&A	532	627	689	683	625	640
EBITDA	1,423	1,493	1,578	1,602	1,580	1,620

(−) Tax	169	164	168	174	181	186
(−) CapEx	621	604	619	641	666	683
(−) ΔWC	-122	-30	26	37	44	45
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	754	755	764	750	689	706

Terminal Value						20,288
WACC / Discount Rate	6.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	733	692	661	612	531	15,174

Enterprise Value	18,402
Projection Period	3,227	17.5%
Terminal Value	15,174	82.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	4,085

Equity Value	14,317
(/) Outstanding Shares	143

Fair Price	$100.33

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.0%	$159	$201	$270	$410	$841
5.0%	$106	$125	$151	$190	$257
6.0%	$77	$87	$100	$118	$143
7.0%	$58	$64	$72	$82	$95
8.0%	$45	$49	$55	$61	$68

Current price: $40.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$115.74

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

+186.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 5.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 42, DPO 52, DIO 76). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $115.74 per share, suggesting LW is undervalued by 186.9% at the current price of $40.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.98%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	707	688	705	730	758	858	953	1,039	1,113	1,169	1,198
(−) Net Interest	184	179	183	190	197	223	248	270	289	304	311
(+) D&A	532	627	689	683	625	630	657	703	762	829	850
EBITDA	1,423	1,493	1,578	1,602	1,580	1,711	1,858	2,013	2,164	2,302	2,359

(−) Tax	169	164	168	174	181	205	228	248	266	279	286
(−) CapEx	621	604	619	641	666	754	837	913	977	1,027	1,052
(−) ΔWC	-122	-30	26	37	44	152	145	132	112	85	87
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	754	755	764	750	689	601	648	720	809	911	934

Terminal Value											26,828
WACC / Discount Rate	6.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	733	692	661	612	531	437	444	466	494	525	15,007

Enterprise Value	20,600
Projection Period	5,593	27.1%
Terminal Value	15,007	72.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	4,085

Equity Value	16,516
(/) Outstanding Shares	143

Fair Price	$115.74

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.0%	$193	$238	$313	$466	$935
5.0%	$128	$147	$175	$215	$284
6.0%	$92	$103	$116	$133	$158
7.0%	$70	$76	$83	$93	$105
8.0%	$54	$58	$63	$68	$75

Current price: $40.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$62.09

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

+53.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 4.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 42, DPO 52, DIO 76). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $62.10 per share, suggesting LW is undervalued by 53.9% at the current price of $40.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.98%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.02x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	707	688	705	730	758	777
(−) Net Interest	184	179	183	190	197	202
(+) D&A	532	627	689	683	625	640
EBITDA	1,423	1,493	1,578	1,602	1,580	1,620

(−) Tax	169	164	168	174	181	—
(−) CapEx	621	604	619	641	666	—
(−) ΔWC	-122	-30	26	37	44	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	754	755	764	750	689	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						8.0x
Terminal Value						12,992
WACC / Discount Rate	5.98%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	733	692	661	612	531	9,717

Enterprise Value	12,944
Projection Period	3,227	24.9%
Terminal Value	9,717	75.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	4,085
Equity Value	8,860
(÷) Outstanding Shares	143M
Fair Price	$62	+53.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.0x	6.0x	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x
4.0%	$33	$51	$70	$89	$107
5.0%	$30	$48	$66	$84	$102
6.0%	$28	$45	$62	$79	$96
7.0%	$26	$42	$58	$75	$91
8.0%	$24	$40	$55	$71	$86

Current price: $40.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$84.75

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

+110.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 5.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 42, DPO 52, DIO 76). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (65% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $84.76 per share, suggesting LW is undervalued by 110.1% at the current price of $40.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.98%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.02x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	707	688	705	730	758	858	953	1,039	1,113	1,169	1,198
(−) Net Interest	184	179	183	190	197	223	248	270	289	304	311
(+) D&A	532	627	689	683	625	630	657	703	762	829	850
EBITDA	1,423	1,493	1,578	1,602	1,580	1,711	1,858	2,013	2,164	2,302	2,359

(−) Tax	169	164	168	174	181	205	228	248	266	279	—
(−) CapEx	621	604	619	641	666	754	837	913	977	1,027	—
(−) ΔWC	-122	-30	26	37	44	152	145	132	112	85	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	754	755	764	750	689	601	648	720	809	911	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											8.0x
Terminal Value											18,923
WACC / Discount Rate	5.98%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	733	692	661	612	531	437	444	466	494	525	10,585

Enterprise Value	16,178
Projection Period	5,593	34.6%
Terminal Value	10,585	65.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	4,085
Equity Value	12,094
(÷) Outstanding Shares	143M
Fair Price	$85	+110.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.0x	6.0x	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x
4.0%	$59	$82	$104	$126	$149
5.0%	$53	$74	$94	$114	$135
6.0%	$48	$66	$85	$103	$122
7.0%	$43	$60	$76	$93	$110
8.0%	$38	$54	$69	$84	$100

Current price: $40.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$28.31

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

-29.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) has a fair value of $28.31 based on 8 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

P/E Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,757	16.1x	14.6x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	11,353	11.5x	15.5x
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.EDU	8,698	23.8x	23.8x
Pilgrim's Pride CorporationPPC	7,837	7.3x	6.5x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	7,101	10.1x	10.7x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,952	6.0x	8.6x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,207	10.4x	9.5x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,479	23.0x	27.1x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,436	18.9x	17.6x
Industry Median		10.9x	13.1x
(*) Profit after tax		357	394
Equity Value		3,905	4,174
(/) Outstanding shares		143	143
Fair Price		$27	$29

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$28.31

-29.8%

Fair Value

$33.78

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

-16.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) has a fair value of $33.78 based on 8 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,757	9.2x	9.1x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	11,353	7.4x	8.1x
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.EDU	8,698	13.3x	15.1x
Pilgrim's Pride CorporationPPC	7,837	5.0x	5.1x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	7,101	6.4x	6.1x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,952	7.6x	7.8x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,207	8.4x	8.8x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,479	15.6x	18.2x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,436	9.7x	10.1x
Industry Median		8.0x	8.5x
(*) EBITDA		1,073	1,086
= Enterprise Value		8,604	9,208
(-) Net Debt		4,085	4,085
Equity Value		4,519	5,123
(/) Outstanding shares		143	143
Fair Price		$32	$36

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$33.78

-16.3%

Fair Value

$31.27

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

-22.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) has a fair value of $31.27 based on 10 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,757	1.5x	1.5x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	11,353	0.8x	0.9x
The J. M. Smucker CompanySJM	10,135	2.0x	2.0x
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.EDU	8,698	1.6x	1.8x
Molson Coors Beverage CompanyTAP	8,040	1.2x	1.2x
Pilgrim's Pride CorporationPPC	7,837	0.6x	0.6x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	7,101	1.1x	1.0x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,952	1.3x	1.3x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,207	1.3x	1.4x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,479	2.2x	2.6x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,436	1.6x	1.6x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		6,451	6,531
= Enterprise Value		8,333	8,759
(-) Net Debt		4,085	4,085
Equity Value		4,249	4,675
(/) Outstanding shares		143	143
Fair Price		$30	$33

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$31.27

-22.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$36.45

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

-9.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 13.2% plus 3.3% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $36.45 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.77. The current PEG ratio is 1.23.

PEG Ratio

1.23Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 16.3 ÷ (9.9% + 3.3%) = 1.23

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	9.9%
Dividend Yield	+3.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	13.2%
Fair P/E	13.2x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.77
Fair Value	$36.45

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.50	—	—
FY2026E	$2.77	+10.7%	8
FY2027E	$2.91	+5.1%	8
FY2028E	$3.30	+13.3%	7
FY2029E	$3.64	+10.3%	3
FY2030E	$4.00	+10.0%	3

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 9.9%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$317.8M	$2.16	—
FY2022	$200.9M	$1.38	-36.1%
FY2023	$1.0B	$6.95	+403.6%
FY2024	$725.5M	$4.98	-28.3%
FY2025	$357.2M	$2.50	-49.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 3.7%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$18.46

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

-54.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.0% and normalized earnings of $401.9M, the company has a fair value of $18.46 per share. The EPV range is $9.02 – $34.22 based on WACC sensitivity (4.5% – 7.5%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	402	402	402
(/) WACC	7.5%	6.0%	4.5%
Enterprise Value	5,372	6,719	8,968
(-) Net debt	4,085	4,085	4,085
Equity Value	1,287	2,634	4,883
(/) Outstanding shares	143	143	143
Fair Price	$9.02	$18.46	$34.22

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$39.36

Market Price

$40.34

Upside / Downside

-2.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.9% and projected dividend growth of 10.9%, the fair value is $39.36 per share. The DDM range is $26.18 – $68.85 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.45

Dividend Yield

3.31%

Payout Ratio

57.9%

Dividend Coverage

1.73x

FCF Payout Ratio89.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.1%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.45	57.9%	+21.3%
2024	$1.20	24.0%	+18.8%
2023	$1.01	14.5%	+6.1%
2022	$0.95	68.9%	+3.1%
2021	$0.92	42.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.61	10.9%	0.9268	$1.49
2027	$1.78	10.9%	0.8589	$1.53
2028	$1.98	10.9%	0.7960	$1.57
2029	$2.19	10.9%	0.7377	$1.62
2030	$2.43	10.9%	0.6837	$1.66
Terminal Value	$2.49 DPS	2.5%		$31.49

PV of Projected Dividends$7.87

PV of Terminal Value$31.49

Fair Value per Share$39.36

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	8.9%	9.9%	10.9%	11.9%	12.9%
5.9%	$58	$61	$63	$66	$69
6.9%	$45	$47	$49	$51	$53
7.9%	$36	$38	$39	$41	$43
8.9%	$30	$32	$33	$34	$36
9.9%	$26	$27	$28	$30	$31

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.