InterContinental Hotels Group PLC

IHG

Consumer CyclicalTravel LodgingNYSE

$150.16

Market Cap: $22.39B

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$68.53 – $276.16	$114.59	-15.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$95.05 – $362.08	$154.70	+14.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$92.90 – $188.75	$136.91	+1.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$118.33 – $256.74	$177.62	+31.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$107.94 – $158.65	$111.75	-17.1%
EV/EBITDA	$56.47 – $122.62	$95.19	-29.4%
EV/Revenue	$35.78 – $59.70	$52.13	-61.3%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$86.97 – $86.97	$86.97	-35.5%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$43.42 – $74.37	$55.95	-58.5%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$29.35 – $68.89	$42.50	-68.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$114.59

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-23.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.6% to 6.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 41, DIO 1). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $114.59 per share, suggesting IHG is overvalued by 23.7% at the current price of $150.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,644
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	214
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	91
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	1,950

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	467
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	124
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	37
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	1,322

Terminal Value						24,576
WACC / Discount Rate	7.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	16,821

Enterprise Value	21,344
Projection Period	4,523	21.2%
Terminal Value	16,821	78.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490

Equity Value	17,854
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$114.59

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.9%	$154	$172	$197	$230	$276
6.9%	$120	$132	$146	$164	$187
7.9%	$98	$105	$115	$126	$139
8.9%	$81	$87	$93	$100	$109
9.9%	$69	$73	$77	$82	$88

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$154.70

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

+3.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.6% to 5.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 41, DIO 1). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $154.70 per share, suggesting IHG is fairly valued by 3.0% at the current price of $150.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,821	2,028	2,217	2,376	2,497	2,560
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	237	264	289	309	325	333
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	108	116	127	139	152	156
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	2,165	2,408	2,632	2,824	2,974	3,049

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	517	576	630	675	709	727
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	138	153	168	180	189	193
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	77	74	67	57	43	44
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	1,434	1,605	1,767	1,913	2,033	2,084

Terminal Value											38,745
WACC / Discount Rate	7.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	945	980	1,001	1,004	989	18,150

Enterprise Value	27,592
Projection Period	9,442	34.2%
Terminal Value	18,150	65.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490

Equity Value	24,102
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$154.70

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.9%	$217	$239	$268	$307	$362
6.9%	$169	$182	$198	$219	$245
7.9%	$136	$145	$155	$167	$181
8.9%	$113	$118	$125	$133	$142
9.9%	$95	$99	$103	$109	$115

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$136.91

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-8.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.6% to 6.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 41, DIO 1). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $136.91 per share, suggesting IHG is fairly valued by 8.8% at the current price of $150.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.21x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,644
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	214
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	91
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	1,950

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	—
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	—
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						15.2x
Terminal Value						29,656
WACC / Discount Rate	7.88%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	20,298

Enterprise Value	24,821
Projection Period	4,523	18.2%
Terminal Value	20,298	81.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490
Equity Value	21,331
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$137	-8.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x	19.2x
5.9%	$114	$132	$151	$170	$189
6.9%	$108	$126	$144	$162	$180
7.9%	$103	$120	$137	$154	$171
8.9%	$98	$114	$130	$147	$163
9.9%	$93	$109	$124	$140	$155

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$177.62

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

+18.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.6% to 5.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 41, DIO 1). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (70% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $177.62 per share, suggesting IHG is undervalued by 18.3% at the current price of $150.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.21x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,821	2,028	2,217	2,376	2,497	2,560
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	237	264	289	309	325	333
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	108	116	127	139	152	156
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	2,165	2,408	2,632	2,824	2,974	3,049

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	517	576	630	675	709	—
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	138	153	168	180	189	—
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	77	74	67	57	43	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	1,434	1,605	1,767	1,913	2,033	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											15.2x
Terminal Value											46,369
WACC / Discount Rate	7.88%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	945	980	1,001	1,004	989	21,721

Enterprise Value	31,163
Projection Period	9,442	30.3%
Terminal Value	21,721	69.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490
Equity Value	27,673
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$178	+18.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x	19.2x
5.9%	$168	$190	$213	$235	$257
6.9%	$154	$174	$194	$214	$234
7.9%	$141	$159	$178	$196	$214
8.9%	$129	$146	$163	$179	$196
9.9%	$118	$134	$149	$164	$179

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$111.76

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-25.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) has a fair value of $111.76 based on 8 comparable companies in the Travel Lodging industry.

P/E Valuation — Travel Lodging

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	23,395	30.8x	26.5x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	27,718	51.1x	41.3x
Darden Restaurants, Inc.DRI	22,633	22.2x	18.5x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,745	30.9x	22.0x
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,028	32.6x	16.0x
NVR, Inc.NVR	18,796	15.4x	13.6x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,394	24.9x	11.0x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	18,324	23.9x	20.7x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	18,322	11.8x	12.0x
Industry Median		24.4x	17.3x
(*) Profit after tax		758	882
Equity Value		18,503	16,322
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$119	$105

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$111.76

-25.6%

Fair Value

$95.07

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-36.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) has a fair value of $95.07 based on 9 comparable companies in the Travel Lodging industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Travel Lodging

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	23,395	22.0x	20.7x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	27,718	25.3x	23.5x
Darden Restaurants, Inc.DRI	22,633	15.2x	13.9x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,745	18.5x	16.5x
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,028	8.4x	7.5x
NVR, Inc.NVR	18,796	10.1x	9.9x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,394	18.4x	18.4x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	18,324	12.6x	12.5x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	18,322	6.7x	6.7x
Hyatt Hotels CorporationH	13,943	24.9x	24.8x
Industry Median		15.2x	13.9x
(*) EBITDA		1,220	1,298
= Enterprise Value		18,556	18,048
(-) Net Debt		3,490	3,490
Equity Value		15,066	14,558
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$97	$93

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$95.07

-36.7%

Fair Value

$52.05

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-65.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) has a fair value of $52.05 based on 9 comparable companies in the Travel Lodging industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Travel Lodging

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	23,395	5.2x	4.9x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	27,718	1.9x	1.8x
Darden Restaurants, Inc.DRI	22,633	2.4x	2.2x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,745	3.2x	2.8x
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,028	1.2x	1.0x
NVR, Inc.NVR	18,796	1.7x	1.7x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,394	2.2x	2.2x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	18,324	2.5x	2.4x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	18,322	1.6x	1.7x
Hyatt Hotels CorporationH	13,943	2.5x	2.5x
Industry Median		2.2x	2.2x
(*) Revenue		5,189	5,522
= Enterprise Value		11,262	11,937
(-) Net Debt		3,490	3,490
Equity Value		7,772	8,447
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$50	$54

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.05

-65.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$86.97

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-42.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 15.4% plus 1.3% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $86.97 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $5.66. The current PEG ratio is 1.55.

PEG Ratio

1.55Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 23.8 ÷ (14.0% + 1.3%) = 1.55

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	14.0%
Dividend Yield	+1.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	15.4%
Fair P/E	15.4x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$5.66
Fair Value	$86.97

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$4.87	—	—
FY2026E	$5.66	+16.2%	5
FY2027E	$6.37	+12.6%	5
FY2028E	$7.22	+13.4%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.0%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$266.0M	$1.45	—
FY2022	$375.0M	$2.04	+40.7%
FY2023	$750.0M	$4.41	+116.2%
FY2024	$628.0M	$3.85	-12.7%
FY2025	$758.0M	$4.87	+26.5%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 35.4%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$55.95

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-62.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.9% and normalized earnings of $961.7M, the company has a fair value of $55.95 per share. The EPV range is $43.42 – $74.37 based on WACC sensitivity (6.4% – 9.4%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	962	962	962
(/) WACC	9.4%	7.9%	6.4%
Enterprise Value	10,254	12,207	15,077
(-) Net debt	3,490	3,490	3,490
Equity Value	6,764	8,717	11,587
(/) Outstanding shares	156	156	156
Fair Price	$43.42	$55.95	$74.37

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$42.50

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-71.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.7% and projected dividend growth of 12.0%, the fair value is $42.50 per share. The DDM range is $29.35 – $68.89 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.73

Dividend Yield

1.34%

Payout Ratio

35.6%

Dividend Coverage

2.81x

FCF Payout Ratio31.0%

DPS CAGR (3Y)11.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.73	35.6%	+9.1%
2024	$1.59	41.2%	+10.2%
2023	$1.44	32.7%	+13.8%
2022	$1.27	62.1%	—
2021	—	0.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.94	12.0%	0.9197	$1.78
2027	$2.17	12.0%	0.8458	$1.84
2028	$2.43	12.0%	0.7778	$1.89
2029	$2.73	12.0%	0.7154	$1.95
2030	$3.05	12.0%	0.6579	$2.01
Terminal Value	$3.13 DPS	2.5%		$33.03

PV of Projected Dividends$9.48

PV of Terminal Value$33.03

Fair Value per Share$42.50

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	10.0%	11.0%	12.0%	13.0%	14.0%
6.7%	$58	$61	$63	$66	$69
7.7%	$47	$49	$51	$53	$55
8.7%	$39	$41	$43	$44	$46
9.7%	$34	$35	$36	$38	$39
10.7%	$29	$31	$32	$33	$34

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$68.53 – $276.16	$114.59	-15.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$95.05 – $362.08	$154.70	+14.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$92.90 – $188.75	$136.91	+1.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$118.33 – $256.74	$177.62	+31.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$107.94 – $158.65	$111.75	-17.1%
EV/EBITDA	$56.47 – $122.62	$95.19	-29.4%
EV/Revenue	$35.78 – $59.70	$52.13	-61.3%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$86.97 – $86.97	$86.97	-35.5%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$43.42 – $74.37	$55.95	-58.5%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$29.35 – $68.89	$42.50	-68.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$114.59

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-23.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,644
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	214
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	91
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	1,950

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	467
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	124
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	37
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	1,322

Terminal Value						24,576
WACC / Discount Rate	7.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	16,821

Enterprise Value	21,344
Projection Period	4,523	21.2%
Terminal Value	16,821	78.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490

Equity Value	17,854
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$114.59

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.9%	$154	$172	$197	$230	$276
6.9%	$120	$132	$146	$164	$187
7.9%	$98	$105	$115	$126	$139
8.9%	$81	$87	$93	$100	$109
9.9%	$69	$73	$77	$82	$88

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$154.70

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

+3.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,821	2,028	2,217	2,376	2,497	2,560
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	237	264	289	309	325	333
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	108	116	127	139	152	156
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	2,165	2,408	2,632	2,824	2,974	3,049

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	517	576	630	675	709	727
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	138	153	168	180	189	193
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	77	74	67	57	43	44
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	1,434	1,605	1,767	1,913	2,033	2,084

Terminal Value											38,745
WACC / Discount Rate	7.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	945	980	1,001	1,004	989	18,150

Enterprise Value	27,592
Projection Period	9,442	34.2%
Terminal Value	18,150	65.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490

Equity Value	24,102
(/) Outstanding Shares	156

Fair Price	$154.70

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.9%	$217	$239	$268	$307	$362
6.9%	$169	$182	$198	$219	$245
7.9%	$136	$145	$155	$167	$181
8.9%	$113	$118	$125	$133	$142
9.9%	$95	$99	$103	$109	$115

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$136.91

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-8.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.6% to 6.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 41, DIO 1). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $136.91 per share, suggesting IHG is fairly valued by 8.8% at the current price of $150.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.21x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,644
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	214
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	91
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	1,950

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	—
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	—
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						15.2x
Terminal Value						29,656
WACC / Discount Rate	7.88%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	20,298

Enterprise Value	24,821
Projection Period	4,523	18.2%
Terminal Value	20,298	81.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490
Equity Value	21,331
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$137	-8.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x	19.2x
5.9%	$114	$132	$151	$170	$189
6.9%	$108	$126	$144	$162	$180
7.9%	$103	$120	$137	$154	$171
8.9%	$98	$114	$130	$147	$163
9.9%	$93	$109	$124	$140	$155

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$177.62

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

+18.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.6% to 5.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 41, DIO 1). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (70% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $177.62 per share, suggesting IHG is undervalued by 18.3% at the current price of $150.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.88%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.21x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,267	1,337	1,413	1,504	1,604	1,821	2,028	2,217	2,376	2,497	2,560
(−) Net Interest	165	174	184	196	209	237	264	289	309	325	333
(+) D&A	68	77	77	82	89	108	116	127	139	152	156
EBITDA	1,500	1,587	1,674	1,782	1,902	2,165	2,408	2,632	2,824	2,974	3,049

(−) Tax	360	380	401	427	456	517	576	630	675	709	—
(−) CapEx	96	101	107	114	121	138	153	168	180	189	—
(−) ΔWC	242	25	27	32	36	77	74	67	57	43	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	802	1,082	1,139	1,209	1,290	1,434	1,605	1,767	1,913	2,033	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											15.2x
Terminal Value											46,369
WACC / Discount Rate	7.88%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	772	965	942	927	917	945	980	1,001	1,004	989	21,721

Enterprise Value	31,163
Projection Period	9,442	30.3%
Terminal Value	21,721	69.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	3,490
Equity Value	27,673
(÷) Outstanding Shares	156M
Fair Price	$178	+18.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x	19.2x
5.9%	$168	$190	$213	$235	$257
6.9%	$154	$174	$194	$214	$234
7.9%	$141	$159	$178	$196	$214
8.9%	$129	$146	$163	$179	$196
9.9%	$118	$134	$149	$164	$179

Current price: $150.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$111.76

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-25.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Travel Lodging

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	23,395	30.8x	26.5x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	27,718	51.1x	41.3x
Darden Restaurants, Inc.DRI	22,633	22.2x	18.5x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,745	30.9x	22.0x
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,028	32.6x	16.0x
NVR, Inc.NVR	18,796	15.4x	13.6x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,394	24.9x	11.0x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	18,324	23.9x	20.7x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	18,322	11.8x	12.0x
Industry Median		24.4x	17.3x
(*) Profit after tax		758	882
Equity Value		18,503	16,322
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$119	$105

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$111.76

-25.6%

Fair Value

$95.07

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-36.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Travel Lodging

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	23,395	22.0x	20.7x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	27,718	25.3x	23.5x
Darden Restaurants, Inc.DRI	22,633	15.2x	13.9x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,745	18.5x	16.5x
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,028	8.4x	7.5x
NVR, Inc.NVR	18,796	10.1x	9.9x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,394	18.4x	18.4x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	18,324	12.6x	12.5x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	18,322	6.7x	6.7x
Hyatt Hotels CorporationH	13,943	24.9x	24.8x
Industry Median		15.2x	13.9x
(*) EBITDA		1,220	1,298
= Enterprise Value		18,556	18,048
(-) Net Debt		3,490	3,490
Equity Value		15,066	14,558
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$97	$93

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$95.07

-36.7%

Fair Value

$52.05

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-65.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Travel Lodging

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	23,395	5.2x	4.9x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	27,718	1.9x	1.8x
Darden Restaurants, Inc.DRI	22,633	2.4x	2.2x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,745	3.2x	2.8x
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,028	1.2x	1.0x
NVR, Inc.NVR	18,796	1.7x	1.7x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,394	2.2x	2.2x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	18,324	2.5x	2.4x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	18,322	1.6x	1.7x
Hyatt Hotels CorporationH	13,943	2.5x	2.5x
Industry Median		2.2x	2.2x
(*) Revenue		5,189	5,522
= Enterprise Value		11,262	11,937
(-) Net Debt		3,490	3,490
Equity Value		7,772	8,447
(/) Outstanding shares		156	156
Fair Price		$50	$54

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.05

-65.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$86.97

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-42.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

PEG Ratio

1.55Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 23.8 ÷ (14.0% + 1.3%) = 1.55

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	14.0%
Dividend Yield	+1.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	15.4%
Fair P/E	15.4x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$5.66
Fair Value	$86.97

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$4.87	—	—
FY2026E	$5.66	+16.2%	5
FY2027E	$6.37	+12.6%	5
FY2028E	$7.22	+13.4%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.0%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$266.0M	$1.45	—
FY2022	$375.0M	$2.04	+40.7%
FY2023	$750.0M	$4.41	+116.2%
FY2024	$628.0M	$3.85	-12.7%
FY2025	$758.0M	$4.87	+26.5%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 35.4%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$55.95

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-62.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	962	962	962
(/) WACC	9.4%	7.9%	6.4%
Enterprise Value	10,254	12,207	15,077
(-) Net debt	3,490	3,490	3,490
Equity Value	6,764	8,717	11,587
(/) Outstanding shares	156	156	156
Fair Price	$43.42	$55.95	$74.37

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$42.50

Market Price

$150.16

Upside / Downside

-71.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.73

Dividend Yield

1.34%

Payout Ratio

35.6%

Dividend Coverage

2.81x

FCF Payout Ratio31.0%

DPS CAGR (3Y)11.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.73	35.6%	+9.1%
2024	$1.59	41.2%	+10.2%
2023	$1.44	32.7%	+13.8%
2022	$1.27	62.1%	—
2021	—	0.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.94	12.0%	0.9197	$1.78
2027	$2.17	12.0%	0.8458	$1.84
2028	$2.43	12.0%	0.7778	$1.89
2029	$2.73	12.0%	0.7154	$1.95
2030	$3.05	12.0%	0.6579	$2.01
Terminal Value	$3.13 DPS	2.5%		$33.03

PV of Projected Dividends$9.48

PV of Terminal Value$33.03

Fair Value per Share$42.50

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	10.0%	11.0%	12.0%	13.0%	14.0%
6.7%	$58	$61	$63	$66	$69
7.7%	$47	$49	$51	$53	$55
8.7%	$39	$41	$43	$44	$46
9.7%	$34	$35	$36	$38	$39
10.7%	$29	$31	$32	$33	$34