Hongli Group Inc.

HLP

Basic MaterialsSteelNASDAQ

$0.86

Market Cap: $63.16M

Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.02 – $0.66	$0.13	-85.0%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.02 – $0.69	$0.13	-85.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.05 – $0.23	$0.13	-85.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.13

Market Price

$0.86

Upside / Downside

-84.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -11.2% to a target of 12.9% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.3%, Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) has an intrinsic value of $0.13 per share (range: $0.02 – $0.69).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-11.2%

Target Operating Margin

12.9%

WACC

8.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

12.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.7%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

8.1%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	15	5.8%	-6.4%	-1	-1	1	(2)	-2	-0	-0
2026	16	5.5%	-1.6%	-0	-0	1	(2)	0	-2	-1
2027	17	5.2%	3.3%	1	0	1	(2)	0	-1	-1
2028	17	4.9%	8.1%	1	1	1	(2)	0	0	0
2029	18	4.7%	12.9%	2	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2030	19	4.4%	12.9%	2	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2031	20	4.1%	12.9%	3	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2032	21	3.8%	12.9%	3	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2033	21	3.5%	12.9%	3	3	1	(2)	0	2	1
2034	22	3.3%	12.9%	3	3	1	(2)	0	2	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)34

PV of Terminal Value16

Enterprise Value18

(–) Net Debt8

Equity Value9

(÷) Shares Outstanding73

Fair Value per Share$0.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	6.9%	9.9%	12.9%	15.9%	18.9%
6.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$0
8.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$0
9.3%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$0
10.3%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$0

Current price: $0.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 41.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.13

Market Price

$0.86

Upside / Downside

-84.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-11.2%

Target Operating Margin

12.9%

WACC

8.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

12.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.7%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

8.1%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	15	5.5%	-6.4%	-1	-1	1	(2)	-2	-0	-0
2026	16	5.0%	-1.6%	-0	-0	1	(2)	0	-1	-1
2027	16	4.5%	3.3%	1	0	1	(2)	0	-1	-0
2028	17	4.0%	8.1%	1	1	1	(1)	0	0	0
2029	18	3.5%	12.9%	2	2	1	(1)	0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)27

PV of Terminal Value19

Enterprise Value18

(–) Net Debt8

Equity Value9

(÷) Shares Outstanding73

Fair Value per Share$0.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	6.9%	9.9%	12.9%	15.9%	18.9%
6.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$1
7.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$0
8.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$0
9.3%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$0
10.3%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$0

Current price: $0.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 41.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.13

Market Price

$0.86

Upside / Downside

-85.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) has a fair value of $0.13 based on 6 comparable companies in the Steel industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Steel

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Hongli Group Inc.HLP	63	5.1x	—
Ascent Industries Co.ACNT	126	1.1x	0.5x
Friedman Industries, IncorporatedFRD	124	0.4x	—
Namib Minerals Ordinary SharesNAMM	122	1.4x	1.5x
Flexible Solutions International, Inc.FSI	69	1.9x	1.9x
FST Corp.KBSX	59	1.8x	—
Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp.BIOX	35	0.8x	0.8x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.1x
(*) Revenue		14
= Enterprise Value		18
(-) Net Debt		8
Equity Value		9
(/) Outstanding shares		73
Fair Price		$0

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.02 – $0.66

$0.13

-85.0%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.02 – $0.69

$0.13

-85.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.05 – $0.23

$0.13

-85.1%

DCF Analysis

Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.13

Market Price

$0.86

Upside / Downside

-84.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-11.2%

Target Operating Margin

12.9%

WACC

8.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

12.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.7%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

8.1%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	15	5.8%	-6.4%	-1	-1	1	(2)	-2	-0	-0
2026	16	5.5%	-1.6%	-0	-0	1	(2)	0	-2	-1
2027	17	5.2%	3.3%	1	0	1	(2)	0	-1	-1
2028	17	4.9%	8.1%	1	1	1	(2)	0	0	0
2029	18	4.7%	12.9%	2	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2030	19	4.4%	12.9%	2	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2031	20	4.1%	12.9%	3	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2032	21	3.8%	12.9%	3	2	1	(2)	0	1	1
2033	21	3.5%	12.9%	3	3	1	(2)	0	2	1
2034	22	3.3%	12.9%	3	3	1	(2)	0	2	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)34

PV of Terminal Value16

Enterprise Value18

(–) Net Debt8

Equity Value9

(÷) Shares Outstanding73

Fair Value per Share$0.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	6.9%	9.9%	12.9%	15.9%	18.9%
6.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$0
8.3%	$-0	$0	$0	$0	$0
9.3%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$0
10.3%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$0

Current price: $0.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 41.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.13

Market Price

$0.86

Upside / Downside

-85.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) has a fair value of $0.13 based on 6 comparable companies in the Steel industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Steel

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Hongli Group Inc.HLP	63	5.1x	—
Ascent Industries Co.ACNT	126	1.1x	0.5x
Friedman Industries, IncorporatedFRD	124	0.4x	—
Namib Minerals Ordinary SharesNAMM	122	1.4x	1.5x
Flexible Solutions International, Inc.FSI	69	1.9x	1.9x
FST Corp.KBSX	59	1.8x	—
Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp.BIOX	35	0.8x	0.8x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.1x
(*) Revenue		14
= Enterprise Value		18
(-) Net Debt		8
Equity Value		9
(/) Outstanding shares		73
Fair Price		$0