Genius Sports Limited

GENI

Communication ServicesInternet Content & InformationNYSE

$4.40

Market Cap: $1.08B

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 22:46

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.83 – $16.32	$0.86	-80.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.52 – $6.55	$4.77	+8.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.86

Market Price

$4.40

Upside / Downside

-80.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -15.6% to a target of 10.4% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.4%, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) has an intrinsic value of $0.86 per share (range: $0.83 – $16.32).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

10.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

25.9%

D&A/Revenue

17.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	936	39.8%	-10.4%	-97	-97	162	(116)	68	-120	-116
2027	1,211	29.4%	-5.2%	-63	-63	209	(168)	42	-64	-58
2028	1,402	15.8%	0.0%	0	0	242	(216)	29	-3	-2
2029	1,508	7.5%	5.2%	79	62	260	(255)	16	52	40
2030	1,906	26.3%	10.4%	199	157	329	(350)	61	74	54
2031	2,333	22.4%	10.4%	243	192	403	(464)	66	65	44
2032	2,767	18.6%	10.4%	288	228	478	(592)	67	47	29
2033	3,172	14.7%	10.4%	331	261	548	(727)	63	20	12
2034	3,514	10.8%	10.4%	366	289	607	(858)	53	-14	-8
2035	3,757	6.9%	10.4%	392	309	649	(973)	37	-52	-27

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-31

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-31

(–) Net Debt-250

Equity Value219

(÷) Shares Outstanding255

Fair Value per Share$0.86

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$6	$16
6.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$5	$12
7.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$4	$9
8.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$7
9.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$6

Current price: $4.40. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 15.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.77

Market Price

$4.40

Upside / Downside

+8.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) has a fair value of $4.77 based on 6 comparable companies in the Internet Content & Information industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Internet Content & Information

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Genius Sports LimitedGENI	1,121	1.3x	1.3x
IAC InterActive Corp.IAC	3,277	1.6x	2.0x
Cinemark Holdings, Inc.CNK	3,161	2.1x	1.9x
JOYY, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class AJOYY	3,097	1.3x	0.2x
Kyivstar Group Ltd. Common SharesKYIV	3,068	2.7x	2.5x
Weibo CorporationWB	2,020	0.9x	0.9x
Yelp Inc.YELP	1,591	1.0x	1.0x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		669	669
= Enterprise Value		953	979
(-) Net Debt		-250	-250
Equity Value		1,203	1,229
(/) Outstanding shares		255	255
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.77

+8.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.83 – $16.32

$0.86

-80.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.52 – $6.55

$4.77

+8.5%

DCF Analysis

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.86

Market Price

$4.40

Upside / Downside

-80.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

10.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

25.9%

D&A/Revenue

17.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	936	39.8%	-10.4%	-97	-97	162	(116)	68	-120	-116
2027	1,211	29.4%	-5.2%	-63	-63	209	(168)	42	-64	-58
2028	1,402	15.8%	0.0%	0	0	242	(216)	29	-3	-2
2029	1,508	7.5%	5.2%	79	62	260	(255)	16	52	40
2030	1,906	26.3%	10.4%	199	157	329	(350)	61	74	54
2031	2,333	22.4%	10.4%	243	192	403	(464)	66	65	44
2032	2,767	18.6%	10.4%	288	228	478	(592)	67	47	29
2033	3,172	14.7%	10.4%	331	261	548	(727)	63	20	12
2034	3,514	10.8%	10.4%	366	289	607	(858)	53	-14	-8
2035	3,757	6.9%	10.4%	392	309	649	(973)	37	-52	-27

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-31

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-31

(–) Net Debt-250

Equity Value219

(÷) Shares Outstanding255

Fair Value per Share$0.86

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$6	$16
6.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$5	$12
7.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$4	$9
8.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$7
9.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$6

Current price: $4.40. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 15.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.77

Market Price

$4.40

Upside / Downside

+8.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Internet Content & Information

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Genius Sports LimitedGENI	1,121	1.3x	1.3x
IAC InterActive Corp.IAC	3,277	1.6x	2.0x
Cinemark Holdings, Inc.CNK	3,161	2.1x	1.9x
JOYY, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class AJOYY	3,097	1.3x	0.2x
Kyivstar Group Ltd. Common SharesKYIV	3,068	2.7x	2.5x
Weibo CorporationWB	2,020	0.9x	0.9x
Yelp Inc.YELP	1,591	1.0x	1.0x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		669	669
= Enterprise Value		953	979
(-) Net Debt		-250	-250
Equity Value		1,203	1,229
(/) Outstanding shares		255	255
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.77

+8.5%