JFrog Ltd.

FROG

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$69.01

Market Cap: $8.36B

JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:23

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.84 – $15.01	$1.44	-96.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.48 – $36.16	$9.99	-78.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$13.55 – $23.17	$17.62	-61.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$9.99

Market Price

$69.01

Upside / Downside

-85.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -15.7% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, JFrog Ltd. (FROG) has an intrinsic value of $9.99 per share (range: $2.48 – $36.16).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.9%

D&A/Revenue

5.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	628	18.0%	-10.6%	-66	-66	33	(11)	9	-54	-52
2027	735	17.0%	-5.5%	-40	-40	39	(18)	20	-39	-34
2028	905	23.2%	-0.3%	-3	-3	48	(29)	31	-15	-12
2029	1,146	26.6%	4.8%	55	44	61	(44)	44	16	12
2030	1,451	26.6%	10.0%	145	114	77	(66)	56	69	47
2031	1,781	22.7%	10.0%	178	140	94	(93)	60	81	51
2032	2,115	18.8%	10.0%	211	167	112	(124)	61	93	53
2033	2,429	14.8%	10.0%	242	191	128	(159)	57	103	54
2034	2,693	10.9%	10.0%	269	212	142	(195)	48	111	53
2035	2,880	6.9%	10.0%	287	227	152	(228)	34	117	51

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)223

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,999

PV of Terminal Value880

Enterprise Value1,103

(–) Net Debt-57

Equity Value1,161

(÷) Shares Outstanding116

Fair Value per Share$9.99

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$-1	$6	$16	$26	$36
8.0%	$-1	$5	$13	$20	$28
9.0%	$-1	$4	$10	$16	$22
10.0%	$-1	$3	$8	$13	$19
11.0%	$-1	$2	$7	$11	$16

Current price: $69.01. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 18.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.44

Market Price

$69.01

Upside / Downside

-97.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -15.7% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, JFrog Ltd. (FROG) has an intrinsic value of $1.44 per share (range: $0.84 – $15.01).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.9%

D&A/Revenue

5.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	628	18.0%	-10.6%	-66	-66	33	(16)	9	-58	-56
2027	735	17.0%	-5.5%	-40	-40	39	(28)	20	-49	-43
2028	905	23.2%	-0.3%	-3	-3	48	(47)	31	-33	-27
2029	1,146	26.6%	4.8%	55	44	61	(75)	44	-15	-11
2030	1,451	26.6%	10.0%	145	114	77	(115)	56	20	14

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-123

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)344

PV of Terminal Value233

Enterprise Value110

(–) Net Debt-57

Equity Value168

(÷) Shares Outstanding116

Fair Value per Share$1.44

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$-2	$-1	$3	$9	$15
8.0%	$-2	$-1	$2	$7	$12
9.0%	$-2	$-1	$1	$5	$9
10.0%	$-2	$-1	$1	$4	$8
11.0%	$-2	$-1	$1	$4	$7

Current price: $69.01. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 18.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$17.62

Market Price

$69.01

Upside / Downside

-74.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), JFrog Ltd. (FROG) has a fair value of $17.62 based on 10 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
JFrog Ltd.FROG	8,019	15.0x	18.7x
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.CWAN	7,163	10.9x	10.9x
SentinelOne, Inc.S	4,893	4.7x	4.7x
Commvault Systems, Inc.CVLT	4,300	3.6x	4.4x
Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary SharesBULL	3,775	2.9x	3.6x
Workiva Inc.WK	3,080	4.0x	4.8x
CleanSpark, Inc.CLSK	3,015	5.0x	4.9x
StubHub Holdings, Inc.STUB	2,480	1.6x	1.3x
OneStream, Inc. Class A Common StockOS	2,395	2.9x	3.5x
Bitdeer Technologies GroupBTDR	2,313	5.4x	9.5x
Via Transportation, Inc.VIA	1,191	2.0x	1.1x
Industry Median		3.8x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		532	427
= Enterprise Value		2,037	1,943
(-) Net Debt		-57	-57
Equity Value		2,094	2,001
(/) Outstanding shares		116	116
Fair Price		$18	$17

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$17.62

-74.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.84 – $15.01

$1.44

-96.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.48 – $36.16

$9.99

-78.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$13.55 – $23.17

$17.62

-61.3%

DCF Analysis

JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$9.99

Market Price

$69.01

Upside / Downside

-85.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.9%

D&A/Revenue

5.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	628	18.0%	-10.6%	-66	-66	33	(11)	9	-54	-52
2027	735	17.0%	-5.5%	-40	-40	39	(18)	20	-39	-34
2028	905	23.2%	-0.3%	-3	-3	48	(29)	31	-15	-12
2029	1,146	26.6%	4.8%	55	44	61	(44)	44	16	12
2030	1,451	26.6%	10.0%	145	114	77	(66)	56	69	47
2031	1,781	22.7%	10.0%	178	140	94	(93)	60	81	51
2032	2,115	18.8%	10.0%	211	167	112	(124)	61	93	53
2033	2,429	14.8%	10.0%	242	191	128	(159)	57	103	54
2034	2,693	10.9%	10.0%	269	212	142	(195)	48	111	53
2035	2,880	6.9%	10.0%	287	227	152	(228)	34	117	51

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)223

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,999

PV of Terminal Value880

Enterprise Value1,103

(–) Net Debt-57

Equity Value1,161

(÷) Shares Outstanding116

Fair Value per Share$9.99

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$-1	$6	$16	$26	$36
8.0%	$-1	$5	$13	$20	$28
9.0%	$-1	$4	$10	$16	$22
10.0%	$-1	$3	$8	$13	$19
11.0%	$-1	$2	$7	$11	$16

Current price: $69.01. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 18.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$17.62

Market Price

$69.01

Upside / Downside

-74.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), JFrog Ltd. (FROG) has a fair value of $17.62 based on 10 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
JFrog Ltd.FROG	8,019	15.0x	18.7x
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.CWAN	7,163	10.9x	10.9x
SentinelOne, Inc.S	4,893	4.7x	4.7x
Commvault Systems, Inc.CVLT	4,300	3.6x	4.4x
Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary SharesBULL	3,775	2.9x	3.6x
Workiva Inc.WK	3,080	4.0x	4.8x
CleanSpark, Inc.CLSK	3,015	5.0x	4.9x
StubHub Holdings, Inc.STUB	2,480	1.6x	1.3x
OneStream, Inc. Class A Common StockOS	2,395	2.9x	3.5x
Bitdeer Technologies GroupBTDR	2,313	5.4x	9.5x
Via Transportation, Inc.VIA	1,191	2.0x	1.1x
Industry Median		3.8x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		532	427
= Enterprise Value		2,037	1,943
(-) Net Debt		-57	-57
Equity Value		2,094	2,001
(/) Outstanding shares		116	116
Fair Price		$18	$17

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$17.62

-74.5%