First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.

Real EstateREIT - IndustrialNYSE

$62.75

Market Cap: $8.32B

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 08:56

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$22.52 – $197.70	$49.03	-21.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$36.20 – $271.14	$71.94	+14.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$69.14 – $138.53	$101.00	+61.0%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$79.38 – $180.53	$122.67	+95.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$31.70 – $78.37	$61.53	-1.9%
EV/EBITDA	$42.69 – $68.09	$59.23	-5.6%
EV/Revenue	$43.40 – $76.59	$50.15	-20.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$16.74 – $16.74	$16.74	-73.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$0.31 – $11.15	$4.54	-92.8%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$27.90 – $73.34	$41.90	-33.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$49.03

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

-21.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.0% to 13.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 90, DPO 308, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $49.03 per share, suggesting FR is overvalued by 21.9% at the current price of $62.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	341	366	393	434	494	506
(−) Net Interest	85	91	97	107	122	125
(+) D&A	336	375	363	390	456	467
EBITDA	762	832	854	931	1,072	1,099

(−) Tax	12	13	14	16	18	18
(−) CapEx	430	462	496	547	622	638
(−) ΔWC	-19	-0	-0	-1	-1	-1
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	338	358	344	369	433	444

Terminal Value						10,327
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	324	292	293	322	7,433

Enterprise Value	8,992
Projection Period	1,559	17.3%
Terminal Value	7,433	82.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,495

Equity Value	6,497
(/) Outstanding Shares	133

Fair Price	$49.03

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$74	$88	$109	$141	$198
5.8%	$52	$60	$70	$84	$103
6.8%	$38	$43	$49	$56	$66
7.8%	$29	$32	$36	$41	$46
8.8%	$23	$25	$27	$30	$34

Current price: $62.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$71.94

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

+14.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.0% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 90, DPO 308, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (72% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $71.94 per share, suggesting FR is fairly valued by 14.7% at the current price of $62.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	341	366	393	434	494	542	588	629	665	694	712
(−) Net Interest	85	91	97	107	122	134	146	156	165	172	176
(+) D&A	336	375	363	390	456	511	562	618	677	736	754
EBITDA	762	832	854	931	1,072	1,188	1,295	1,403	1,507	1,602	1,642

(−) Tax	12	13	14	16	18	19	21	23	24	25	26
(−) CapEx	430	462	496	547	622	683	741	793	839	875	897
(−) ΔWC	-19	-0	-0	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-0	-0	-0
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	338	358	344	369	433	486	534	588	645	702	720

Terminal Value											16,751
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	324	292	293	322	338	348	359	369	376	8,678

Enterprise Value	12,028
Projection Period	3,350	27.8%
Terminal Value	8,678	72.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,495

Equity Value	9,533
(/) Outstanding Shares	133

Fair Price	$71.94

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$112	$131	$157	$198	$271
5.8%	$80	$89	$101	$118	$142
6.8%	$60	$65	$72	$81	$92
7.8%	$46	$49	$54	$59	$65
8.8%	$36	$39	$41	$44	$48

Current price: $62.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$100.98

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

+60.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.0% to 13.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 90, DPO 308, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $101.00 per share, suggesting FR is undervalued by 61.0% at the current price of $62.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

18.10x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	341	366	393	434	494	506
(−) Net Interest	85	91	97	107	122	125
(+) D&A	336	375	363	390	456	467
EBITDA	762	832	854	931	1,072	1,099

(−) Tax	12	13	14	16	18	—
(−) CapEx	430	462	496	547	622	—
(−) ΔWC	-19	-0	-0	-1	-1	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	338	358	344	369	433	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						18.1x
Terminal Value						19,890
WACC / Discount Rate	6.80%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	324	292	293	322	14,316

Enterprise Value	15,875
Projection Period	1,559	9.8%
Terminal Value	14,316	90.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,495
Equity Value	13,380
(÷) Outstanding Shares	133M
Fair Price	$101	+60.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	14.1x	16.1x	18.1x	20.1x	22.1x
4.8%	$86	$99	$112	$125	$139
5.8%	$81	$94	$106	$119	$132
6.8%	$77	$89	$101	$113	$125
7.8%	$73	$84	$96	$107	$119
8.8%	$69	$80	$91	$102	$113

Current price: $62.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$122.65

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

+95.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.0% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 90, DPO 308, DIO 60). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $122.67 per share, suggesting FR is undervalued by 95.5% at the current price of $62.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

18.10x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	341	366	393	434	494	542	588	629	665	694	712
(−) Net Interest	85	91	97	107	122	134	146	156	165	172	176
(+) D&A	336	375	363	390	456	511	562	618	677	736	754
EBITDA	762	832	854	931	1,072	1,188	1,295	1,403	1,507	1,602	1,642

(−) Tax	12	13	14	16	18	19	21	23	24	25	—
(−) CapEx	430	462	496	547	622	683	741	793	839	875	—
(−) ΔWC	-19	-0	-0	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-0	-0	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	338	358	344	369	433	486	534	588	645	702	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											18.1x
Terminal Value											29,720
WACC / Discount Rate	6.80%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	324	292	293	322	338	348	359	369	376	15,397

Enterprise Value	18,747
Projection Period	3,350	17.9%
Terminal Value	15,397	82.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,495
Equity Value	16,252
(÷) Outstanding Shares	133M
Fair Price	$123	+95.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	14.1x	16.1x	18.1x	20.1x	22.1x
4.8%	$118	$134	$150	$165	$181
5.8%	$107	$121	$135	$150	$164
6.8%	$97	$110	$123	$136	$148
7.8%	$88	$99	$111	$123	$135
8.8%	$79	$90	$101	$111	$122

Current price: $62.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$61.53

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

-1.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) has a fair value of $61.53 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Industrial industry.

P/E Valuation — REIT - Industrial

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.FR	8,315	33.6x	30.0x
CareTrust REIT, Inc.CTRE	9,287	26.5x	29.4x
CubeSmartCUBE	9,209	27.7x	28.6x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,154	43.1x	38.9x
Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.REXR	8,350	42.0x	32.2x
STAG Industrial, Inc.STAG	7,394	26.5x	38.1x
Terreno Realty CorporationTRNO	7,070	17.0x	51.4x
Vornado Realty TrustVNO	6,027	7.6x	—
Industry Median		26.5x	35.2x
(*) Profit after tax		247	277
Equity Value		6,556	9,750
(/) Outstanding shares		133	133
Fair Price		$49	$74

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$61.53

-1.9%

Fair Value

$59.23

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

-5.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) has a fair value of $59.23 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Industrial industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — REIT - Industrial

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.FR	8,315	19.0x	18.3x
CareTrust REIT, Inc.CTRE	9,287	21.6x	27.5x
CubeSmartCUBE	9,209	18.1x	18.1x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,154	20.2x	17.6x
Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.REXR	8,350	18.2x	18.8x
STAG Industrial, Inc.STAG	7,394	14.9x	13.9x
Terreno Realty CorporationTRNO	7,070	14.3x	13.4x
Vornado Realty TrustVNO	6,027	7.4x	7.0x
Industry Median		18.1x	17.6x
(*) EBITDA		569	591
= Enterprise Value		10,298	10,387
(-) Net Debt		2,495	2,495
Equity Value		7,803	7,892
(/) Outstanding shares		133	133
Fair Price		$59	$60

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$59.23

-5.6%

Fair Value

$50.15

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

-20.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) has a fair value of $50.15 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Industrial industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — REIT - Industrial

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.FR	8,315	14.9x	14.3x
CareTrust REIT, Inc.CTRE	9,287	20.9x	26.6x
CubeSmartCUBE	9,209	11.3x	11.3x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,154	17.4x	15.1x
Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.REXR	8,350	11.6x	12.0x
STAG Industrial, Inc.STAG	7,394	12.6x	11.8x
Terreno Realty CorporationTRNO	7,070	16.8x	15.7x
Vornado Realty TrustVNO	6,027	7.2x	6.9x
Industry Median		12.6x	12.0x
(*) Revenue		727	756
= Enterprise Value		9,179	9,100
(-) Net Debt		2,495	2,495
Equity Value		6,684	6,605
(/) Outstanding shares		133	133
Fair Price		$50	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$50.15

-20.1%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$16.74

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

-73.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 2.8% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $16.74 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.09. The current PEG ratio is 4.07.

PEG Ratio

4.07Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 30.0 ÷ (4.6% + 2.8%) = 4.07

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	4.6%
Dividend Yield	+2.8%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.09
Fair Value	$16.74

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.87	—	—
FY2026E	$2.09	+11.9%	6
FY2027E	$1.89	-9.8%	7
FY2028E	$1.97	+4.4%	6
FY2029E	$2.08	+5.8%	5
FY2030E	$2.34	+12.2%	3

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 4.6%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$271.0M	$2.09	—
FY2022	$359.1M	$2.72	+30.1%
FY2023	$274.8M	$2.07	-23.9%
FY2024	$287.3M	$2.17	+4.8%
FY2025	$247.4M	$1.87	-13.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -2.7%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$4.54

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

-92.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.8% and normalized earnings of $210.5M, the company has a fair value of $4.54 per share. The EPV range is $0.31 – $11.15 based on WACC sensitivity (5.3% – 8.3%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	210	210	210
(/) WACC	8.3%	6.8%	5.3%
Enterprise Value	2,536	3,096	3,973
(-) Net debt	2,495	2,495	2,495
Equity Value	42	601	1,478
(/) Outstanding shares	133	133	133
Fair Price	$0.31	$4.54	$11.15

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$41.90

Market Price

$62.75

Upside / Downside

-33.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.9% and projected dividend growth of 7.8%, the fair value is $41.90 per share. The DDM range is $27.90 – $73.34 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.75

Dividend Yield

2.78%

Payout Ratio

93.4%

Dividend Coverage

1.07x

FCF Payout Ratio201.3%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.8%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.75	93.4%	+19.4%
2024	$1.46	67.3%	+14.2%
2023	$1.28	61.6%	+8.8%
2022	$1.18	43.3%	+9.2%
2021	$1.08	51.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.88	7.8%	0.9270	$1.74
2027	$2.03	7.8%	0.8593	$1.74
2028	$2.19	7.8%	0.7965	$1.74
2029	$2.36	7.8%	0.7384	$1.74
2030	$2.54	7.8%	0.6844	$1.74
Terminal Value	$2.61 DPS	2.5%		$33.18

PV of Projected Dividends$8.71

PV of Terminal Value$33.18

Fair Value per Share$41.90

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	5.8%	6.8%	7.8%	8.8%	9.8%
5.9%	$62	$64	$67	$70	$73
6.9%	$47	$49	$52	$54	$56
7.9%	$38	$40	$42	$44	$46
8.9%	$32	$34	$35	$37	$38
9.9%	$28	$29	$30	$32	$33

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.