Excelerate Energy, Inc.

UtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesNYSE

$33.89

Market Cap: $3.94B

Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 01:47

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$192.10 – $4,237.63	$415.47	+1125.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$245.66 – $5,211.78	$517.00	+1425.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$180.70 – $415.33	$288.12	+750.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$218.20 – $521.92	$347.32	+924.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$21.95 – $29.32	$28.89	-14.7%
EV/EBITDA	$111.61 – $150.84	$155.84	+359.9%
EV/Revenue	$108.40 – $172.40	$173.91	+413.2%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$41.34 – $41.34	$41.34	+22.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$62.03 – $113.71	$82.16	+142.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$8.13 – $39.32	$14.54	-57.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$415.47

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+1125.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Excelerate Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 31.6% to 16.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 53, DPO 43, DIO 23). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (89% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 4.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $415.47 per share, suggesting EE is undervalued by 1125.9% at the current price of $33.89.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.79%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	326	406	455	451	524	545
(−) Net Interest	104	129	145	144	167	173
(+) D&A	149	182	208	202	235	245
EBITDA	579	718	808	797	926	963

(−) Tax	72	89	100	99	115	120
(−) CapEx	202	251	281	279	324	337
(−) ΔWC	56	42	26	-2	39	40
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	250	335	401	421	449	467

Terminal Value						16,744
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	4.0%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	242	303	341	334	334	12,058

Enterprise Value	13,612
Projection Period	1,554	11.4%
Terminal Value	12,058	88.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	889

Equity Value	12,723
(/) Outstanding Shares	31

Fair Price	$415.47

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%
4.8%	$699	$962	$1558	$4238	$265
5.8%	$436	$526	$667	$917	$1486
6.8%	$311	$356	$415	$502	$636
7.8%	$239	$265	$297	$339	$396
8.8%	$192	$208	$228	$253	$283

Current price: $33.89. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$517.00

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+1425.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Excelerate Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 31.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 53, DPO 43, DIO 23). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 4.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $517.00 per share, suggesting EE is undervalued by 1425.5% at the current price of $33.89.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.79%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	326	406	455	451	524	564	601	635	666	692	720
(−) Net Interest	104	129	145	144	167	179	191	202	212	220	229
(+) D&A	149	182	208	202	235	268	297	321	343	370	385
EBITDA	579	718	808	797	926	1,011	1,089	1,159	1,221	1,282	1,333

(−) Tax	72	89	100	99	115	124	132	139	146	152	158
(−) CapEx	202	251	281	279	324	349	372	393	412	428	445
(−) ΔWC	56	42	26	-2	39	21	20	18	16	14	14
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	250	335	401	421	449	517	566	608	647	688	716

Terminal Value											25,697
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	4.0%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	242	303	341	334	334	361	369	372	370	369	13,327

Enterprise Value	16,721
Projection Period	3,395	20.3%
Terminal Value	13,327	79.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	889

Equity Value	15,832
(/) Outstanding Shares	31

Fair Price	$517.00

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%
4.8%	$914	$1233	$1957	$5212	$387
5.8%	$566	$670	$833	$1123	$1782
6.8%	$402	$451	$517	$612	$761
7.8%	$307	$334	$368	$413	$473
8.8%	$246	$262	$282	$307	$338

Current price: $33.89. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$288.10

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+750.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Excelerate Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 31.6% to 16.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 53, DPO 43, DIO 23). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $288.12 per share, suggesting EE is undervalued by 750.2% at the current price of $33.89.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.79%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.93x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	326	406	455	451	524	537
(−) Net Interest	104	129	145	144	167	171
(+) D&A	149	182	208	202	235	241
EBITDA	579	718	808	797	926	950

(−) Tax	72	89	100	99	115	—
(−) CapEx	202	251	281	279	324	—
(−) ΔWC	56	42	26	-2	39	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	250	335	401	421	449	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.9x
Terminal Value						11,328
WACC / Discount Rate	6.79%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	242	303	341	334	334	8,158

Enterprise Value	9,712
Projection Period	1,554	16.0%
Terminal Value	8,158	84.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	889
Equity Value	8,823
(÷) Outstanding Shares	31M
Fair Price	$288	+750.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x
4.8%	$219	$268	$317	$366	$415
5.8%	$209	$255	$302	$349	$396
6.8%	$199	$243	$288	$333	$377
7.8%	$190	$232	$275	$317	$360
8.8%	$181	$221	$262	$303	$344

Current price: $33.89. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$347.30

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+924.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Excelerate Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 31.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 53, DPO 43, DIO 23). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (71% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.9x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $347.32 per share, suggesting EE is undervalued by 924.8% at the current price of $33.89.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.79%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.93x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	326	406	455	451	524	564	601	635	666	692	709
(−) Net Interest	104	129	145	144	167	179	191	202	212	220	226
(+) D&A	149	182	208	202	235	268	297	321	343	370	379
EBITDA	579	718	808	797	926	1,011	1,089	1,159	1,221	1,282	1,314

(−) Tax	72	89	100	99	115	124	132	139	146	152	—
(−) CapEx	202	251	281	279	324	349	372	393	412	428	—
(−) ΔWC	56	42	26	-2	39	21	20	18	16	14	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	250	335	401	421	449	517	566	608	647	688	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.9x
Terminal Value											15,676
WACC / Discount Rate	6.79%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	242	303	341	334	334	361	369	372	370	369	8,130

Enterprise Value	11,525
Projection Period	3,395	29.5%
Terminal Value	8,130	70.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	889
Equity Value	10,635
(÷) Outstanding Shares	31M
Fair Price	$347	+924.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x
4.8%	$307	$361	$414	$468	$522
5.8%	$281	$330	$379	$428	$477
6.8%	$258	$303	$347	$392	$436
7.8%	$237	$278	$318	$359	$399
8.8%	$218	$255	$292	$329	$366

Current price: $33.89. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$28.89

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

-14.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE) has a fair value of $28.89 based on 7 comparable companies in the Renewable Utilities industry.

P/E Valuation — Renewable Utilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Excelerate Energy, Inc.EE	1,038	26.5x	20.5x
Northwestern Energy Group IncNWE	4,453	24.6x	19.3x
Otter Tail CorporationOTTR	3,693	13.4x	15.5x
Avista CorporationAVA	3,373	17.2x	15.7x
Chesapeake Utilities CorporationCPK	3,035	21.2x	19.5x
American States Water CompanyAWR	3,026	22.9x	23.3x
MGE Energy, Inc.MGEE	2,707	19.8x	19.8x
California Water Service GroupCWT	2,602	20.2x	18.7x
Industry Median		20.2x	19.3x
(*) Profit after tax		39	51
Equity Value		793	977
(/) Outstanding shares		31	31
Fair Price		$26	$32

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$28.89

-14.7%

Fair Value

$155.84

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+359.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE) has a fair value of $155.84 based on 7 comparable companies in the Renewable Utilities industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Renewable Utilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Excelerate Energy, Inc.EE	1,038	4.6x	3.5x
Northwestern Energy Group IncNWE	4,453	13.2x	12.2x
Otter Tail CorporationOTTR	3,693	9.5x	9.4x
Avista CorporationAVA	3,373	10.3x	10.0x
Chesapeake Utilities CorporationCPK	3,035	12.5x	11.4x
American States Water CompanyAWR	3,026	15.7x	16.4x
MGE Energy, Inc.MGEE	2,707	11.9x	12.1x
California Water Service GroupCWT	2,602	11.6x	11.5x
Industry Median		11.9x	11.5x
(*) EBITDA		419	551
= Enterprise Value		4,993	6,330
(-) Net Debt		889	889
Equity Value		4,104	5,441
(/) Outstanding shares		31	31
Fair Price		$134	$178

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$155.84

+359.9%

Fair Value

$173.91

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+413.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE) has a fair value of $173.91 based on 8 comparable companies in the Renewable Utilities industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Renewable Utilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Excelerate Energy, Inc.EE	1,038	1.6x	1.2x
Fluence Energy, Inc.FLNC	4,458	1.8x	1.2x
Northwestern Energy Group IncNWE	4,453	4.8x	4.5x
Otter Tail CorporationOTTR	3,693	3.4x	3.3x
Avista CorporationAVA	3,373	3.4x	3.3x
Chesapeake Utilities CorporationCPK	3,035	5.0x	4.6x
American States Water CompanyAWR	3,026	6.0x	6.3x
MGE Energy, Inc.MGEE	2,707	4.9x	5.0x
California Water Service GroupCWT	2,602	4.2x	4.1x
Industry Median		4.5x	4.3x
(*) Revenue		1,228	1,616
= Enterprise Value		5,507	6,924
(-) Net Debt		889	889
Equity Value		4,617	6,034
(/) Outstanding shares		31	31
Fair Price		$151	$197

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$173.91

+413.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$41.34

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+22.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 0.2% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $41.34 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.65. The current PEG ratio is 0.68.

PEG Ratio

0.68Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 20.5 ÷ (29.9% + 0.2%) = 0.68

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	29.9%
Dividend Yield	+0.2%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.65
Fair Value	$41.34

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.28	—	—
FY2026E	$1.65	+29.2%	6
FY2027E	$2.15	+29.8%	6
FY2028E	$2.81	+30.9%	5

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 29.9%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$41.1M	$1.72	—
FY2022	$26.3M	$3.05	+77.3%
FY2023	$30.4M	$1.16	-62.0%
FY2024	$32.9M	$1.27	+9.5%
FY2025	$39.2M	$1.28	+0.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -7.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$82.16

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

+142.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.8% and normalized earnings of $231.1M, the company has a fair value of $82.16 per share. The EPV range is $62.03 – $113.71 based on WACC sensitivity (5.3% – 8.3%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	231	231	231
(/) WACC	8.3%	6.8%	5.3%
Enterprise Value	2,789	3,405	4,372
(-) Net debt	889	889	889
Equity Value	1,899	2,516	3,482
(/) Outstanding shares	31	31	31
Fair Price	$62.03	$82.16	$113.71

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$14.54

Market Price

$33.89

Upside / Downside

-57.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.2% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $14.54 per share. The DDM range is $8.13 – $39.32 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.28

Dividend Yield

0.22%

Payout Ratio

21.7%

Dividend Coverage

4.60x

FCF Payout Ratio3.1%

DPS CAGR (3Y)10.5%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.28	21.7%	-72.3%
2024	$1.00	78.8%	+901.9%
2023	$0.10	8.6%	-51.5%
2022	$0.21	20.6%	—
2021	—	0.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.32	15.0%	0.9328	$0.30
2027	$0.37	15.0%	0.8701	$0.32
2028	$0.42	15.0%	0.8117	$0.34
2029	$0.49	15.0%	0.7571	$0.37
2030	$0.56	15.0%	0.7062	$0.39
Terminal Value	$0.58 DPS	4.0%		$12.82

PV of Projected Dividends$1.72

PV of Terminal Value$12.82

Fair Value per Share$14.54

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.2%	$36	$38	$39	$39	$39
6.2%	$20	$20	$21	$21	$21
7.2%	$13	$14	$15	$15	$15
8.2%	$10	$11	$11	$11	$11
9.2%	$8	$8	$9	$9	$9

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.