Data I/O Corporation

DAIO

TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsNASDAQ

$2.80

Market Cap: $26.30M

Data I/O Corporation (DAIO) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 22:02

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.10 – $5.20	$1.30	-53.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.27 – $3.42	$0.53	-80.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.59 – $4.71	$4.53	+61.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Data I/O Corporation (DAIO) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.53

Market Price

$2.80

Upside / Downside

-80.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -23.8% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.7%, Data I/O Corporation (DAIO) has an intrinsic value of $0.53 per share (range: $0.27 – $3.42).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-23.8%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.4%

Tax Rate

28.5%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	22	0.8%	-17.0%	-4	-4	1	(1)	1	-5	-5
2027	29	32.5%	-10.2%	-3	-3	1	(1)	3	-6	-5
2028	27	-4.5%	-3.4%	-1	-1	1	(1)	-0	-1	-1
2029	26	-4.5%	3.4%	1	1	1	(1)	-0	1	0
2030	25	-4.5%	10.2%	3	2	1	(1)	-0	2	1
2031	24	-3.2%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2032	24	-2.0%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2033	24	-0.7%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2034	24	0.5%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	0	1	0
2035	24	1.8%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	0	1	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-6

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)13

PV of Terminal Value6

Enterprise Value-0

(–) Net Debt-5

Equity Value5

(÷) Shares Outstanding9

Fair Value per Share$0.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.7%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
7.7%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
8.7%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
9.7%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2
10.7%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $2.80. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 38.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Data I/O Corporation (DAIO) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.30

Market Price

$2.80

Upside / Downside

-53.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-23.8%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.4%

Tax Rate

28.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	22	0.8%	-17.0%	-4	-4	1	(1)	1	-5	-5
2027	29	32.5%	-10.2%	-3	-3	1	(1)	3	-6	-5
2028	27	-4.5%	-3.4%	-1	-1	1	(1)	-0	-1	-1
2029	26	-4.5%	3.4%	1	1	1	(1)	-0	0	0
2030	25	-4.5%	10.2%	3	2	1	(2)	-0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-10

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)25

PV of Terminal Value17

Enterprise Value7

(–) Net Debt-5

Equity Value12

(÷) Shares Outstanding9

Fair Value per Share$1.30

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.7%	$-0	$1	$3	$4	$5
7.7%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$4
8.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
9.7%	$-1	$0	$1	$2	$2
10.7%	$-1	$0	$1	$1	$2

Current price: $2.80. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 38.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.53

Market Price

$2.80

Upside / Downside

+61.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Data I/O Corporation (DAIO) has a fair value of $4.53 based on 6 comparable companies in the Hardware, Equipment & Parts industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Hardware, Equipment & Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Data I/O CorporationDAIO	26	1.0x	0.8x
Soluna Holdings, Inc.SLNH	44	1.5x	1.9x
Creative Realities, Inc.CREX	39	1.8x	2.0x
Nortech Systems IncorporatedNSYS	36	0.4x	—
Foxx Development Holdings Inc.FOXX	35	0.5x	—
B.O.S. Better Online Solutions Ltd.BOSC	32	0.5x	0.5x
Semilux International Ltd. Ordinary SharesSELX	14	4.0x	—
Industry Median		1.0x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		22	28
= Enterprise Value		22	52
(-) Net Debt		-5	-5
Equity Value		27	57
(/) Outstanding shares		9	9
Fair Price		$3	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.53

+61.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.10 – $5.20

$1.30

-53.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.27 – $3.42

$0.53

-80.9%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.59 – $4.71

$4.53

+61.9%

DCF Analysis

Data I/O Corporation (DAIO) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.53

Market Price

$2.80

Upside / Downside

-80.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-23.8%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.4%

Tax Rate

28.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	22	0.8%	-17.0%	-4	-4	1	(1)	1	-5	-5
2027	29	32.5%	-10.2%	-3	-3	1	(1)	3	-6	-5
2028	27	-4.5%	-3.4%	-1	-1	1	(1)	-0	-1	-1
2029	26	-4.5%	3.4%	1	1	1	(1)	-0	1	0
2030	25	-4.5%	10.2%	3	2	1	(1)	-0	2	1
2031	24	-3.2%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2032	24	-2.0%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2033	24	-0.7%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2034	24	0.5%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	0	1	0
2035	24	1.8%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	0	1	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-6

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)13

PV of Terminal Value6

Enterprise Value-0

(–) Net Debt-5

Equity Value5

(÷) Shares Outstanding9

Fair Value per Share$0.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.7%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
7.7%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
8.7%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
9.7%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2
10.7%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $2.80. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 38.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.53

Market Price

$2.80

Upside / Downside

+61.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Hardware, Equipment & Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Data I/O CorporationDAIO	26	1.0x	0.8x
Soluna Holdings, Inc.SLNH	44	1.5x	1.9x
Creative Realities, Inc.CREX	39	1.8x	2.0x
Nortech Systems IncorporatedNSYS	36	0.4x	—
Foxx Development Holdings Inc.FOXX	35	0.5x	—
B.O.S. Better Online Solutions Ltd.BOSC	32	0.5x	0.5x
Semilux International Ltd. Ordinary SharesSELX	14	4.0x	—
Industry Median		1.0x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		22	28
= Enterprise Value		22	52
(-) Net Debt		-5	-5
Equity Value		27	57
(/) Outstanding shares		9	9
Fair Price		$3	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.53

+61.9%