CoreCivic, Inc.

CXW

Real EstateREIT - SpecialtyNYSE

$19.88

Market Cap: $1.97B

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$17.60 – $175.55	$38.96	+89.4%
Growth Exit 10Y	$20.51 – $180.73	$42.43	+106.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$32.06 – $77.68	$52.97	+157.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$31.52 – $83.57	$53.69	+161.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$16.49 – $34.41	$18.95	-7.9%
EV/EBITDA	$28.83 – $55.55	$32.86	+59.8%
EV/Revenue	$76.45 – $348.68	$200.73	+875.9%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$18.41 – $18.41	$18.41	-10.5%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$16.94 – $32.92	$23.12	+12.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$0.01 – $0.01	$0.01	-100.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$38.96

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+96.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CoreCivic, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 16.0% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 61, DPO 32, DIO 60). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $38.96 per share, suggesting CXW is undervalued by 96.0% at the current price of $19.88.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	366
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	129
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	131
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	625

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	183
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	142
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	30
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-260	209	229	246	264	271

Terminal Value						6,583
WACC / Discount Rate	6.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	4,780

Enterprise Value	5,307
Projection Period	528	9.9%
Terminal Value	4,780	90.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108

Equity Value	4,199
(/) Outstanding Shares	108

Fair Price	$38.96

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.6%	$59	$72	$90	$119	$176
5.6%	$41	$48	$56	$68	$85
6.6%	$30	$34	$39	$45	$53
7.6%	$23	$25	$28	$32	$37
8.6%	$18	$19	$21	$24	$27

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$42.43

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+113.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CoreCivic, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 16.0% to 3.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 61, DPO 32, DIO 60). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $42.43 per share, suggesting CXW is undervalued by 113.4% at the current price of $19.88.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	371	386	400	414	427	438
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	131	136	141	146	151	155
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	127	133	138	144	150	153
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	629	655	680	704	728	746

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	186	193	200	207	214	219
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	144	150	155	161	166	170
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	29	28	28	27	26	27
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-260	209	229	246	264	271	284	297	309	322	330

Terminal Value											8,036
WACC / Discount Rate	6.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	190	187	184	180	175	4,237

Enterprise Value	5,680
Projection Period	1,444	25.4%
Terminal Value	4,237	74.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108

Equity Value	4,572
(/) Outstanding Shares	108

Fair Price	$42.43

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.6%	$68	$80	$97	$126	$181
5.6%	$47	$53	$61	$72	$88
6.6%	$35	$38	$42	$48	$55
7.6%	$26	$29	$31	$34	$38
8.6%	$21	$22	$24	$26	$28

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$52.98

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+166.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CoreCivic, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 16.0% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 61, DPO 32, DIO 60). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (92% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $52.97 per share, suggesting CXW is undervalued by 166.4% at the current price of $19.88.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.86x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	366
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	129
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	131
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	625

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	—
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	—
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-260	209	229	246	264	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.9x
Terminal Value						8,663
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	6,290

Enterprise Value	6,818
Projection Period	528	7.7%
Terminal Value	6,290	92.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108
Equity Value	5,710
(÷) Outstanding Shares	108M
Fair Price	$53	+166.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x	17.9x
4.6%	$41	$50	$59	$68	$78
5.6%	$38	$47	$56	$65	$74
6.6%	$36	$45	$53	$61	$70
7.6%	$34	$42	$50	$58	$66
8.6%	$32	$40	$47	$55	$63

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$53.70

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+170.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CoreCivic, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 16.0% to 3.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 61, DPO 32, DIO 60). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.9x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $53.69 per share, suggesting CXW is undervalued by 170.0% at the current price of $19.88.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.86x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	371	386	400	414	427	438
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	131	136	141	146	151	155
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	127	133	138	144	150	153
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	629	655	680	704	728	746

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	186	193	200	207	214	—
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	144	150	155	161	166	—
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	29	28	28	27	26	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-260	209	229	246	264	271	284	297	309	322	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.9x
Terminal Value											10,340
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	190	187	184	180	175	5,452

Enterprise Value	6,895
Projection Period	1,444	20.9%
Terminal Value	5,452	79.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108
Equity Value	5,787
(÷) Outstanding Shares	108M
Fair Price	$54	+170.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x	17.9x
4.6%	$48	$57	$66	$75	$84
5.6%	$43	$51	$60	$68	$76
6.6%	$39	$46	$54	$61	$68
7.6%	$35	$42	$48	$55	$62
8.6%	$32	$38	$44	$50	$56

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$18.95

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

-4.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) has a fair value of $18.95 based on 6 comparable companies in the REIT - Specialty industry.

P/E Valuation — REIT - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
CoreCivic, Inc.CXW	2,142	18.4x	32.5x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,230	43.4x	39.2x
EPR PropertiesEPR	4,319	17.2x	18.8x
InvenTrust Properties Corp.IVT	2,536	23.0x	30.2x
Dynex Capital, Inc.DX	2,082	5.6x	—
LTC Properties, Inc.LTC	1,903	15.3x	26.5x
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.ESRT	975	31.8x	6.2x
Industry Median		20.1x	26.5x
(*) Profit after tax		117	66
Equity Value		2,342	1,743
(/) Outstanding shares		108	108
Fair Price		$22	$16

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$18.95

-4.7%

Fair Value

$32.86

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+65.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) has a fair value of $32.86 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Specialty industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — REIT - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
CoreCivic, Inc.CXW	2,142	9.3x	10.5x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,230	20.4x	17.7x
EPR PropertiesEPR	4,319	12.7x	14.5x
InvenTrust Properties Corp.IVT	2,536	12.1x	12.2x
Dynex Capital, Inc.DX	2,082	20.4x	—
LTC Properties, Inc.LTC	1,903	13.9x	17.7x
Pebblebrook Hotel TrustPEB	1,600	14.1x	14.4x
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.ESRT	975	8.7x	8.9x
Industry Median		13.9x	14.4x
(*) EBITDA		348	310
= Enterprise Value		4,826	4,473
(-) Net Debt		1,108	1,108
Equity Value		3,718	3,365
(/) Outstanding shares		108	108
Fair Price		$34	$31

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$32.86

+65.3%

Fair Value

$200.73

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+909.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) has a fair value of $200.73 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Specialty industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — REIT - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
CoreCivic, Inc.CXW	2,142	1.5x	1.7x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,230	17.5x	15.2x
EPR PropertiesEPR	4,319	10.2x	11.7x
InvenTrust Properties Corp.IVT	2,536	11.1x	11.2x
Dynex Capital, Inc.DX	2,082	28.2x	—
LTC Properties, Inc.LTC	1,903	10.4x	13.2x
Pebblebrook Hotel TrustPEB	1,600	2.6x	2.7x
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.ESRT	975	4.2x	4.3x
Industry Median		10.4x	11.4x
(*) Revenue		2,211	1,966
= Enterprise Value		22,990	22,492
(-) Net Debt		1,108	1,108
Equity Value		21,882	21,383
(/) Outstanding shares		108	108
Fair Price		$203	$198

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$200.73

+909.7%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$18.41

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

-7.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 12.2% plus 0.0% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $18.41 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.51. The current PEG ratio is 1.12.

PEG Ratio

1.12Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 13.6 ÷ (12.2% + 0.0%) = 1.12

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	12.2%
Dividend Yield	+0.0%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	12.2%
Fair P/E	12.2x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.51
Fair Value	$18.41

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.08	—	—
FY2026E	$1.51	+39.8%	4

1Y Forward EPS CAGR: 39.8%

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$-51.9M	$-0.43	—
FY2022	$122.3M	$1.03	—
FY2023	$67.6M	$0.59	-42.7%
FY2024	$68.9M	$0.62	+5.1%
FY2025	$116.5M	$1.08	+74.2%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 12.2%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$23.12

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+16.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.6% and normalized earnings of $237.9M, the company has a fair value of $23.12 per share. The EPV range is $16.94 – $32.92 based on WACC sensitivity (5.1% – 8.1%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	238	238	238
(/) WACC	8.1%	6.6%	5.1%
Enterprise Value	2,934	3,600	4,656
(-) Net debt	1,108	1,108	1,108
Equity Value	1,825	2,491	3,548
(/) Outstanding shares	108	108	108
Fair Price	$16.94	$23.12	$32.92

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$0.01

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

-99.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.3% and projected dividend growth of 0.0%, the fair value is $0.01 per share. The DDM range is $0.01 – $0.01 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.00

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Payout Ratio

0.0%

Dividend Coverage

2588.96x

FCF Payout Ratio0.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)-62.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.00	0.0%	-65.7%
2024	$0.00	0.2%	+6.4%
2023	$0.00	0.2%	-84.6%
2022	$0.01	0.7%	-64.3%
2021	$0.02	—	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.00	0.0%	0.9233	$0.00
2027	$0.00	0.0%	0.8524	$0.00
2028	$0.00	0.0%	0.7871	$0.00
2029	$0.00	0.0%	0.7267	$0.00
2030	$0.00	0.0%	0.6709	$0.00
Terminal Value	$0.00 DPS	2.5%		$0.00

PV of Projected Dividends$0.00

PV of Terminal Value$0.00

Fair Value per Share$0.01

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	2.0%
6.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
7.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
8.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
9.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
10.3%	—	—	—	$0	$0

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$17.60 – $175.55	$38.96	+89.4%
Growth Exit 10Y	$20.51 – $180.73	$42.43	+106.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$32.06 – $77.68	$52.97	+157.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$31.52 – $83.57	$53.69	+161.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$16.49 – $34.41	$18.95	-7.9%
EV/EBITDA	$28.83 – $55.55	$32.86	+59.8%
EV/Revenue	$76.45 – $348.68	$200.73	+875.9%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$18.41 – $18.41	$18.41	-10.5%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$16.94 – $32.92	$23.12	+12.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$0.01 – $0.01	$0.01	-100.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$38.96

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+96.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	366
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	129
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	131
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	625

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	183
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	142
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	30
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-260	209	229	246	264	271

Terminal Value						6,583
WACC / Discount Rate	6.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	4,780

Enterprise Value	5,307
Projection Period	528	9.9%
Terminal Value	4,780	90.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108

Equity Value	4,199
(/) Outstanding Shares	108

Fair Price	$38.96

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.6%	$59	$72	$90	$119	$176
5.6%	$41	$48	$56	$68	$85
6.6%	$30	$34	$39	$45	$53
7.6%	$23	$25	$28	$32	$37
8.6%	$18	$19	$21	$24	$27

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$42.43

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+113.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	371	386	400	414	427	438
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	131	136	141	146	151	155
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	127	133	138	144	150	153
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	629	655	680	704	728	746

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	186	193	200	207	214	219
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	144	150	155	161	166	170
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	29	28	28	27	26	27
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-260	209	229	246	264	271	284	297	309	322	330

Terminal Value											8,036
WACC / Discount Rate	6.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	190	187	184	180	175	4,237

Enterprise Value	5,680
Projection Period	1,444	25.4%
Terminal Value	4,237	74.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108

Equity Value	4,572
(/) Outstanding Shares	108

Fair Price	$42.43

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.6%	$68	$80	$97	$126	$181
5.6%	$47	$53	$61	$72	$88
6.6%	$35	$38	$42	$48	$55
7.6%	$26	$29	$31	$34	$38
8.6%	$21	$22	$24	$26	$28

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$52.98

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+166.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CoreCivic, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 16.0% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 61, DPO 32, DIO 60). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (92% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $52.97 per share, suggesting CXW is undervalued by 166.4% at the current price of $19.88.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.86x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	366
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	129
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	131
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	625

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	—
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	—
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-260	209	229	246	264	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.9x
Terminal Value						8,663
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	6,290

Enterprise Value	6,818
Projection Period	528	7.7%
Terminal Value	6,290	92.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108
Equity Value	5,710
(÷) Outstanding Shares	108M
Fair Price	$53	+166.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x	17.9x
4.6%	$41	$50	$59	$68	$78
5.6%	$38	$47	$56	$65	$74
6.6%	$36	$45	$53	$61	$70
7.6%	$34	$42	$50	$58	$66
8.6%	$32	$40	$47	$55	$63

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$53.70

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+170.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CoreCivic, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 16.0% to 3.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 61, DPO 32, DIO 60). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.9x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $53.69 per share, suggesting CXW is undervalued by 170.0% at the current price of $19.88.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.86x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	297	314	327	342	357	371	386	400	414	427	438
(−) Net Interest	105	111	115	121	126	131	136	141	146	151	155
(+) D&A	89	96	104	115	127	127	133	138	144	150	153
EBITDA	490	520	547	577	610	629	655	680	704	728	746

(−) Tax	148	157	164	171	178	186	193	200	207	214	—
(−) CapEx	115	122	127	132	138	144	150	155	161	166	—
(−) ΔWC	487	33	27	28	29	29	28	28	27	26	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-260	209	229	246	264	271	284	297	309	322	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.9x
Terminal Value											10,340
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-252	190	195	197	198	190	187	184	180	175	5,452

Enterprise Value	6,895
Projection Period	1,444	20.9%
Terminal Value	5,452	79.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,108
Equity Value	5,787
(÷) Outstanding Shares	108M
Fair Price	$54	+170.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x	17.9x
4.6%	$48	$57	$66	$75	$84
5.6%	$43	$51	$60	$68	$76
6.6%	$39	$46	$54	$61	$68
7.6%	$35	$42	$48	$55	$62
8.6%	$32	$38	$44	$50	$56

Current price: $19.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$18.95

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

-4.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) has a fair value of $18.95 based on 6 comparable companies in the REIT - Specialty industry.

P/E Valuation — REIT - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
CoreCivic, Inc.CXW	2,142	18.4x	32.5x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,230	43.4x	39.2x
EPR PropertiesEPR	4,319	17.2x	18.8x
InvenTrust Properties Corp.IVT	2,536	23.0x	30.2x
Dynex Capital, Inc.DX	2,082	5.6x	—
LTC Properties, Inc.LTC	1,903	15.3x	26.5x
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.ESRT	975	31.8x	6.2x
Industry Median		20.1x	26.5x
(*) Profit after tax		117	66
Equity Value		2,342	1,743
(/) Outstanding shares		108	108
Fair Price		$22	$16

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$18.95

-4.7%

Fair Value

$32.86

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+65.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) has a fair value of $32.86 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Specialty industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — REIT - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
CoreCivic, Inc.CXW	2,142	9.3x	10.5x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,230	20.4x	17.7x
EPR PropertiesEPR	4,319	12.7x	14.5x
InvenTrust Properties Corp.IVT	2,536	12.1x	12.2x
Dynex Capital, Inc.DX	2,082	20.4x	—
LTC Properties, Inc.LTC	1,903	13.9x	17.7x
Pebblebrook Hotel TrustPEB	1,600	14.1x	14.4x
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.ESRT	975	8.7x	8.9x
Industry Median		13.9x	14.4x
(*) EBITDA		348	310
= Enterprise Value		4,826	4,473
(-) Net Debt		1,108	1,108
Equity Value		3,718	3,365
(/) Outstanding shares		108	108
Fair Price		$34	$31

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$32.86

+65.3%

Fair Value

$200.73

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+909.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) has a fair value of $200.73 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Specialty industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — REIT - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
CoreCivic, Inc.CXW	2,142	1.5x	1.7x
Agree Realty CorporationADC	9,230	17.5x	15.2x
EPR PropertiesEPR	4,319	10.2x	11.7x
InvenTrust Properties Corp.IVT	2,536	11.1x	11.2x
Dynex Capital, Inc.DX	2,082	28.2x	—
LTC Properties, Inc.LTC	1,903	10.4x	13.2x
Pebblebrook Hotel TrustPEB	1,600	2.6x	2.7x
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.ESRT	975	4.2x	4.3x
Industry Median		10.4x	11.4x
(*) Revenue		2,211	1,966
= Enterprise Value		22,990	22,492
(-) Net Debt		1,108	1,108
Equity Value		21,882	21,383
(/) Outstanding shares		108	108
Fair Price		$203	$198

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$200.73

+909.7%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$18.41

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

-7.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 12.2% plus 0.0% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $18.41 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.51. The current PEG ratio is 1.12.

PEG Ratio

1.12Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 13.6 ÷ (12.2% + 0.0%) = 1.12

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	12.2%
Dividend Yield	+0.0%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	12.2%
Fair P/E	12.2x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.51
Fair Value	$18.41

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.08	—	—
FY2026E	$1.51	+39.8%	4

1Y Forward EPS CAGR: 39.8%

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$-51.9M	$-0.43	—
FY2022	$122.3M	$1.03	—
FY2023	$67.6M	$0.59	-42.7%
FY2024	$68.9M	$0.62	+5.1%
FY2025	$116.5M	$1.08	+74.2%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 12.2%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$23.12

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

+16.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	238	238	238
(/) WACC	8.1%	6.6%	5.1%
Enterprise Value	2,934	3,600	4,656
(-) Net debt	1,108	1,108	1,108
Equity Value	1,825	2,491	3,548
(/) Outstanding shares	108	108	108
Fair Price	$16.94	$23.12	$32.92

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$0.01

Market Price

$19.88

Upside / Downside

-99.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.00

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Payout Ratio

0.0%

Dividend Coverage

2588.96x

FCF Payout Ratio0.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)-62.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.00	0.0%	-65.7%
2024	$0.00	0.2%	+6.4%
2023	$0.00	0.2%	-84.6%
2022	$0.01	0.7%	-64.3%
2021	$0.02	—	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.00	0.0%	0.9233	$0.00
2027	$0.00	0.0%	0.8524	$0.00
2028	$0.00	0.0%	0.7871	$0.00
2029	$0.00	0.0%	0.7267	$0.00
2030	$0.00	0.0%	0.6709	$0.00
Terminal Value	$0.00 DPS	2.5%		$0.00

PV of Projected Dividends$0.00

PV of Terminal Value$0.00

Fair Value per Share$0.01

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	2.0%
6.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
7.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
8.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
9.3%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
10.3%	—	—	—	$0	$0