Commerce.com, Inc.

CMRC

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$3.10

Market Cap: $255.18M

Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 12:13

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.19 – $13.38	$2.84	-8.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.03 – $18.11	$4.79	+54.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.16 – $5.48	$4.63	+49.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.79

Market Price

$3.10

Upside / Downside

+54.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.7% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) has an intrinsic value of $4.79 per share (range: $1.03 – $18.11).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	353	3.1%	-1.7%	-6	-6	14	(7)	1	-1	-1
2027	369	4.6%	1.3%	5	4	14	(9)	2	7	6
2028	387	4.8%	4.3%	16	13	15	(11)	2	14	12
2029	432	11.7%	7.2%	31	25	17	(15)	5	21	16
2030	483	11.7%	10.2%	49	39	19	(19)	6	33	23
2031	533	10.3%	10.2%	55	43	21	(23)	6	35	23
2032	579	8.8%	10.2%	59	47	22	(27)	5	37	22
2033	622	7.3%	10.2%	64	50	24	(32)	5	37	21
2034	659	5.9%	10.2%	67	53	25	(37)	4	38	19
2035	688	4.5%	10.2%	70	56	27	(41)	3	37	18

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)159

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)737

PV of Terminal Value347

Enterprise Value506

(–) Net Debt121

Equity Value385

(÷) Shares Outstanding80

Fair Value per Share$4.79

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.2%	$-0	$5	$9	$14	$18
7.2%	$-0	$3	$6	$10	$13
8.2%	$-1	$2	$5	$7	$10
9.2%	$-1	$1	$4	$6	$8
10.2%	$-1	$1	$3	$5	$7

Current price: $3.10. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 11.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.84

Market Price

$3.10

Upside / Downside

-8.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	353	3.1%	-1.7%	-6	-6	14	(9)	1	-2	-2
2027	369	4.6%	1.3%	5	4	14	(13)	2	3	3
2028	387	4.8%	4.3%	16	13	15	(17)	2	9	8
2029	432	11.7%	7.2%	31	25	17	(22)	5	14	11
2030	483	11.7%	10.2%	49	39	19	(29)	6	23	16

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)35

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)449

PV of Terminal Value314

Enterprise Value349

(–) Net Debt121

Equity Value228

(÷) Shares Outstanding80

Fair Value per Share$2.84

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.2%	$-2	$2	$6	$10	$13
7.2%	$-2	$1	$4	$7	$10
8.2%	$-2	$1	$3	$5	$7
9.2%	$-2	$0	$2	$4	$6
10.2%	$-2	$-0	$2	$3	$5

Current price: $3.10. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 11.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.63

Market Price

$3.10

Upside / Downside

+49.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) has a fair value of $4.63 based on 8 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Commerce.com, Inc.CMRC	249	1.1x	1.1x
Rackspace Technology, Inc.RXT	869	1.5x	1.5x
LightPath Technologies, Inc.LPTH	502	13.8x	15.8x
PubMatic, Inc.PUBM	485	1.4x	1.3x
Lesaka Technologies, Inc.LSAK	409	0.9x	1.1x
Rimini Street, Inc.RMNI	365	0.6x	0.6x
CS Disco, Inc.LAW	264	1.6x	1.7x
eGain CorporationEGAN	204	1.6x	1.5x
Bakkt Holdings, Inc.BKKT	157	0.1x	2.0x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		342	333
= Enterprise Value		490	496
(-) Net Debt		121	121
Equity Value		369	374
(/) Outstanding shares		80	80
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.63

+49.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.19 – $13.38

$2.84

-8.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.03 – $18.11

$4.79

+54.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.16 – $5.48

$4.63

+49.3%

DCF Analysis

Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.79

Market Price

$3.10

Upside / Downside

+54.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	353	3.1%	-1.7%	-6	-6	14	(7)	1	-1	-1
2027	369	4.6%	1.3%	5	4	14	(9)	2	7	6
2028	387	4.8%	4.3%	16	13	15	(11)	2	14	12
2029	432	11.7%	7.2%	31	25	17	(15)	5	21	16
2030	483	11.7%	10.2%	49	39	19	(19)	6	33	23
2031	533	10.3%	10.2%	55	43	21	(23)	6	35	23
2032	579	8.8%	10.2%	59	47	22	(27)	5	37	22
2033	622	7.3%	10.2%	64	50	24	(32)	5	37	21
2034	659	5.9%	10.2%	67	53	25	(37)	4	38	19
2035	688	4.5%	10.2%	70	56	27	(41)	3	37	18

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)159

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)737

PV of Terminal Value347

Enterprise Value506

(–) Net Debt121

Equity Value385

(÷) Shares Outstanding80

Fair Value per Share$4.79

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.2%	$-0	$5	$9	$14	$18
7.2%	$-0	$3	$6	$10	$13
8.2%	$-1	$2	$5	$7	$10
9.2%	$-1	$1	$4	$6	$8
10.2%	$-1	$1	$3	$5	$7

Current price: $3.10. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 11.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.63

Market Price

$3.10

Upside / Downside

+49.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) has a fair value of $4.63 based on 8 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Commerce.com, Inc.CMRC	249	1.1x	1.1x
Rackspace Technology, Inc.RXT	869	1.5x	1.5x
LightPath Technologies, Inc.LPTH	502	13.8x	15.8x
PubMatic, Inc.PUBM	485	1.4x	1.3x
Lesaka Technologies, Inc.LSAK	409	0.9x	1.1x
Rimini Street, Inc.RMNI	365	0.6x	0.6x
CS Disco, Inc.LAW	264	1.6x	1.7x
eGain CorporationEGAN	204	1.6x	1.5x
Bakkt Holdings, Inc.BKKT	157	0.1x	2.0x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		342	333
= Enterprise Value		490	496
(-) Net Debt		121	121
Equity Value		369	374
(/) Outstanding shares		80	80
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.63

+49.3%