CareDx, Inc

CDNA

HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchNASDAQ

$21.82

Market Cap: $1.13B

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 16:55

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$3.19 – $39.59	$14.51	-33.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$4.60 – $44.67	$17.03	-22.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$9.93 – $41.69	$12.58	-42.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$17.03

Market Price

$21.82

Upside / Downside

-22.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -5.5% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.5%, CareDx, Inc (CDNA) has an intrinsic value of $17.03 per share (range: $4.60 – $44.67).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-5.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.2%

D&A/Revenue

5.5%

Tax Rate

0.6%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	457	20.2%	-1.8%	-8	-8	25	(21)	36	-40	-38
2027	482	5.5%	2.0%	9	9	26	(24)	5	6	5
2028	519	7.7%	5.7%	30	29	28	(28)	8	22	18
2029	552	6.4%	9.4%	52	52	30	(32)	7	43	32
2030	587	6.4%	13.2%	77	77	32	(37)	7	65	45
2031	622	5.8%	13.2%	82	82	34	(41)	7	67	43
2032	654	5.3%	13.2%	86	86	36	(46)	7	69	40
2033	685	4.7%	13.2%	90	90	37	(51)	6	70	38
2034	713	4.1%	13.2%	94	94	39	(56)	6	71	35
2035	739	3.6%	13.2%	97	97	40	(61)	5	71	33

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)252

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,328

PV of Terminal Value610

Enterprise Value862

(–) Net Debt-46

Equity Value907

(÷) Shares Outstanding53

Fair Value per Share$17.03

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$11	$19	$28	$36	$45
7.5%	$8	$15	$21	$28	$34
8.5%	$7	$12	$17	$22	$28
9.5%	$5	$10	$14	$19	$23
10.5%	$5	$8	$12	$16	$20

Current price: $21.82. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$14.51

Market Price

$21.82

Upside / Downside

-33.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-5.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.2%

D&A/Revenue

5.5%

Tax Rate

0.6%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	457	20.2%	-1.8%	-8	-8	25	(23)	36	-42	-40
2027	482	5.5%	2.0%	9	9	26	(28)	5	2	2
2028	519	7.7%	5.7%	30	29	28	(34)	8	16	13
2029	552	6.4%	9.4%	52	52	30	(41)	7	34	26
2030	587	6.4%	13.2%	77	77	32	(48)	7	54	37

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)38

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)997

PV of Terminal Value690

Enterprise Value727

(–) Net Debt-46

Equity Value773

(÷) Shares Outstanding53

Fair Value per Share$14.51

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$8	$16	$24	$32	$40
7.5%	$6	$12	$18	$24	$30
8.5%	$5	$10	$15	$19	$24
9.5%	$4	$8	$12	$16	$20
10.5%	$3	$7	$10	$14	$17

Current price: $21.82. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$12.58

Market Price

$21.82

Upside / Downside

-42.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), CareDx, Inc (CDNA) has a fair value of $12.58 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
CareDx, IncCDNA	1,163	2.9x	3.4x
Vir Biotechnology, Inc.VIR	1,495	21.1x	10.5x
Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.MRVI	1,333	6.2x	5.6x
CorMedix Inc.CRMD	621	2.0x	2.0x
Castle Biosciences, Inc.CSTL	601	1.5x	1.5x
Personalis, Inc.PSNL	532	5.7x	6.2x
Evolent Health, Inc.EVH	477	0.7x	0.5x
Fulgent Genetics, Inc.FLGT	453	1.3x	1.5x
Myriad Genetics, Inc.MYGN	405	0.6x	0.5x
Embecta Corp.EMBC	216	1.3x	1.4x
DarioHealth Corp.DRIO	57	2.8x	2.4x
Industry Median		1.8x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		380	331
= Enterprise Value		668	581
(-) Net Debt		-46	-46
Equity Value		714	627
(/) Outstanding shares		53	53
Fair Price		$13	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$12.58

-42.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$3.19 – $39.59

$14.51

-33.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$4.60 – $44.67

$17.03

-22.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$9.93 – $41.69

$12.58

-42.3%

DCF Analysis

CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$17.03

Market Price

$21.82

Upside / Downside

-22.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-5.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.2%

D&A/Revenue

5.5%

Tax Rate

0.6%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	457	20.2%	-1.8%	-8	-8	25	(21)	36	-40	-38
2027	482	5.5%	2.0%	9	9	26	(24)	5	6	5
2028	519	7.7%	5.7%	30	29	28	(28)	8	22	18
2029	552	6.4%	9.4%	52	52	30	(32)	7	43	32
2030	587	6.4%	13.2%	77	77	32	(37)	7	65	45
2031	622	5.8%	13.2%	82	82	34	(41)	7	67	43
2032	654	5.3%	13.2%	86	86	36	(46)	7	69	40
2033	685	4.7%	13.2%	90	90	37	(51)	6	70	38
2034	713	4.1%	13.2%	94	94	39	(56)	6	71	35
2035	739	3.6%	13.2%	97	97	40	(61)	5	71	33

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)252

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,328

PV of Terminal Value610

Enterprise Value862

(–) Net Debt-46

Equity Value907

(÷) Shares Outstanding53

Fair Value per Share$17.03

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$11	$19	$28	$36	$45
7.5%	$8	$15	$21	$28	$34
8.5%	$7	$12	$17	$22	$28
9.5%	$5	$10	$14	$19	$23
10.5%	$5	$8	$12	$16	$20

Current price: $21.82. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$12.58

Market Price

$21.82

Upside / Downside

-42.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
CareDx, IncCDNA	1,163	2.9x	3.4x
Vir Biotechnology, Inc.VIR	1,495	21.1x	10.5x
Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.MRVI	1,333	6.2x	5.6x
CorMedix Inc.CRMD	621	2.0x	2.0x
Castle Biosciences, Inc.CSTL	601	1.5x	1.5x
Personalis, Inc.PSNL	532	5.7x	6.2x
Evolent Health, Inc.EVH	477	0.7x	0.5x
Fulgent Genetics, Inc.FLGT	453	1.3x	1.5x
Myriad Genetics, Inc.MYGN	405	0.6x	0.5x
Embecta Corp.EMBC	216	1.3x	1.4x
DarioHealth Corp.DRIO	57	2.8x	2.4x
Industry Median		1.8x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		380	331
= Enterprise Value		668	581
(-) Net Debt		-46	-46
Equity Value		714	627
(/) Outstanding shares		53	53
Fair Price		$13	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$12.58

-42.3%