BP p.l.c.

EnergyOil & Gas IntegratedNYSE

$43.34

Market Cap: $113.66B

BP p.l.c. (BP) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 02:33

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$51.94 – $1,143.33	$111.89	+158.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$51.40 – $1,025.54	$105.63	+143.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$12.76 – $111.59	$57.78	+33.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$23.89 – $126.19	$66.70	+53.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$0.14 – $0.39	$26.05	-39.9%
EV/EBITDA	$32.09 – $116.68	$46.59	+7.5%
EV/Revenue	$126.59 – $171.29	$137.25	+216.7%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$129.59 – $129.59	$129.59	+199.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$39.95 – $79.74	$54.76	+26.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$24.36 – $64.51	$36.37	-16.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$111.89

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+158.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BP p.l.c.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.9% to 1.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 54, DPO 102, DIO 55). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $111.89 per share, suggesting BP is undervalued by 158.2% at the current price of $43.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,172
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,089
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,290
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,551

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	9,586
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	14,327
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	97
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	13,540

Terminal Value						401,912
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	302,195

Enterprise Value	344,472
Projection Period	42,277	12.3%
Terminal Value	302,195	87.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712

Equity Value	296,760
(/) Outstanding Shares	2,652

Fair Price	$111.89

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$177	$225	$307	$485	$1143
4.9%	$118	$139	$168	$214	$292
5.9%	$86	$97	$112	$132	$160
6.9%	$66	$73	$81	$92	$106
7.9%	$52	$57	$62	$69	$77

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$105.63

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+143.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BP p.l.c.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.9% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 54, DPO 102, DIO 55). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (74% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $105.63 per share, suggesting BP is undervalued by 143.7% at the current price of $43.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,526	20,329	21,109	21,860	22,576	23,141
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,164	4,335	4,502	4,662	4,815	4,935
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,087	14,091	14,371	14,673	15,174	15,553
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,777	38,756	39,981	41,194	42,565	43,629

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	9,763	10,165	10,555	10,930	11,288	11,570
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	14,591	15,192	15,774	16,335	16,871	17,293
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	394	385	374	360	344	352
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	13,028	13,014	13,279	13,569	14,062	14,414

Terminal Value											427,840
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	9,521	8,983	8,657	8,356	8,180	241,876

Enterprise Value	327,850
Projection Period	85,974	26.2%
Terminal Value	241,876	73.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712

Equity Value	280,138
(/) Outstanding Shares	2,652

Fair Price	$105.63

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$175	$217	$290	$446	$1026
4.9%	$116	$134	$159	$197	$263
5.9%	$85	$94	$106	$122	$144
6.9%	$65	$70	$77	$85	$96
7.9%	$51	$55	$59	$64	$70

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$57.78

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+33.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BP p.l.c.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.9% to 1.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 54, DPO 102, DIO 55). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $57.78 per share, suggesting BP is undervalued by 33.3% at the current price of $43.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

5.62x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,172
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,089
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,290
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,551

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	—
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	—
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						5.6x
Terminal Value						211,036
WACC / Discount Rate	5.87%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	158,677

Enterprise Value	200,954
Projection Period	42,277	21.0%
Terminal Value	158,677	79.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712
Equity Value	153,242
(÷) Outstanding Shares	2652M
Fair Price	$58	+33.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	1.6x	3.6x	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x
3.9%	$18	$41	$65	$88	$112
4.9%	$17	$39	$61	$83	$106
5.9%	$15	$36	$58	$79	$100
6.9%	$14	$34	$55	$75	$95
7.9%	$13	$32	$52	$71	$90

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$66.69

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+53.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BP p.l.c.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.9% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 54, DPO 102, DIO 55). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.70 per share, suggesting BP is undervalued by 53.9% at the current price of $43.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

5.62x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,526	20,329	21,109	21,860	22,576	23,141
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,164	4,335	4,502	4,662	4,815	4,935
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,087	14,091	14,371	14,673	15,174	15,553
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,777	38,756	39,981	41,194	42,565	43,629

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	9,763	10,165	10,555	10,930	11,288	—
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	14,591	15,192	15,774	16,335	16,871	—
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	394	385	374	360	344	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	13,028	13,014	13,279	13,569	14,062	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											5.6x
Terminal Value											245,196
WACC / Discount Rate	5.87%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	9,521	8,983	8,657	8,356	8,180	138,620

Enterprise Value	224,594
Projection Period	85,974	38.3%
Terminal Value	138,620	61.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712
Equity Value	176,882
(÷) Outstanding Shares	2652M
Fair Price	$67	+53.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	1.6x	3.6x	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x
3.9%	$36	$59	$81	$104	$126
4.9%	$33	$53	$74	$94	$114
5.9%	$29	$48	$67	$85	$104
6.9%	$27	$44	$60	$77	$94
7.9%	$24	$39	$55	$70	$86

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$26.05

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

-39.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), BP p.l.c. (BP) has a fair value of $26.05 based on 6 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry.

P/E Valuation — Oil & Gas Integrated

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
BP p.l.c.BP	114,945	2124.5x	8.4x
ConocoPhillipsCOP	138,727	17.9x	12.6x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR	131,014	6.5x	5.2x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR-A	120,318	6.0x	4.8x
Equinor ASAEQNR	93,006	18.8x	7.3x
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMB	89,218	34.1x	30.9x
Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD	80,396	14.0x	12.9x
Industry Median		16.0x	10.0x
(*) Profit after tax		55	13,747
Equity Value		878	137,285
(/) Outstanding shares		2,652	2,652
Fair Price		$0	$52

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$26.05

-39.9%

Fair Value

$46.59

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+7.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), BP p.l.c. (BP) has a fair value of $46.59 based on 6 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Integrated

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
BP p.l.c.BP	114,945	5.2x	4.6x
ConocoPhillipsCOP	138,727	6.7x	5.8x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR	131,014	4.5x	3.7x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR-A	120,318	4.3x	3.5x
Equinor ASAEQNR	93,006	3.3x	2.8x
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMB	89,218	16.0x	15.0x
Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD	80,396	11.5x	11.1x
Industry Median		5.6x	4.7x
(*) EBITDA		31,069	35,385
= Enterprise Value		174,623	167,908
(-) Net Debt		47,712	47,712
Equity Value		126,911	120,196
(/) Outstanding shares		2,652	2,652
Fair Price		$48	$45

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$46.59

+7.5%

Fair Value

$137.25

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+216.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), BP p.l.c. (BP) has a fair value of $137.25 based on 6 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Integrated

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
BP p.l.c.BP	114,945	0.9x	0.8x
ConocoPhillipsCOP	138,727	2.7x	2.3x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR	131,014	2.1x	1.7x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR-A	120,318	2.0x	1.7x
Equinor ASAEQNR	93,006	1.1x	1.0x
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMB	89,218	9.9x	9.3x
Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD	80,396	2.2x	2.1x
Industry Median		2.2x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		189,335	215,637
= Enterprise Value		408,203	415,260
(-) Net Debt		47,712	47,712
Equity Value		360,491	367,548
(/) Outstanding shares		2,652	2,652
Fair Price		$136	$139

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$137.25

+216.7%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$129.59

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+199.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 4.5% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $129.59 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $5.18. The current PEG ratio is 0.04.

PEG Ratio

0.04Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 8.4 ÷ (185.4% + 4.5%) = 0.04

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	185.4%
Dividend Yield	+4.5%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$5.18
Fair Value	$129.59

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.02	—	—
FY2026E	$5.18	+25308.9%	6
FY2027E	$4.03	-22.2%	8
FY2028E	$3.96	-1.8%	6
FY2029E	$3.73	-5.8%	7
FY2030E	$3.86	+3.7%	7

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 185.4%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$7.6B	$2.24	—
FY2022	$-2.5B	$-0.79	-135.3%
FY2023	$15.2B	$5.15	—
FY2024	$381.0M	$0.14	-97.3%
FY2025	$55.0M	$0.02	-85.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -69.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$54.76

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+26.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 5.9% and normalized earnings of $11.3B, the company has a fair value of $54.76 per share. The EPV range is $39.95 – $79.74 based on WACC sensitivity (4.4% – 7.4%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	11,324	11,324	11,324
(/) WACC	7.4%	5.9%	4.4%
Enterprise Value	153,676	192,952	259,198
(-) Net debt	47,712	47,712	47,712
Equity Value	105,964	145,240	211,486
(/) Outstanding shares	2,652	2,652	2,652
Fair Price	$39.95	$54.76	$79.74

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$36.37

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

-16.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.7% and projected dividend growth of 1.8%, the fair value is $36.37 per share. The DDM range is $24.36 – $64.51 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.91

Dividend Yield

4.46%

Payout Ratio

9219.7%

Dividend Coverage

0.01x

FCF Payout Ratio44.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)10.7%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.91	9219.7%	+7.1%
2024	$1.78	1312.9%	+9.8%
2023	$1.63	31.6%	+18.0%
2022	$1.38	—	+8.1%
2021	$1.27	56.9%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.95	1.8%	0.9283	$1.81
2027	$1.98	1.8%	0.8617	$1.71
2028	$2.02	1.8%	0.7999	$1.61
2029	$2.05	1.8%	0.7426	$1.52
2030	$2.09	1.8%	0.6893	$1.44
Terminal Value	$2.14 DPS	2.5%		$28.28

PV of Projected Dividends$8.09

PV of Terminal Value$28.28

Fair Value per Share$36.37

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	0.0%	0.8%	1.8%	2.8%	3.8%
5.7%	$54	$56	$59	$62	$65
6.7%	$41	$43	$45	$47	$49
7.7%	$34	$35	$36	$38	$40
8.7%	$28	$29	$31	$32	$33
9.7%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$29

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

BP p.l.c. (BP) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 02:33

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$51.94 – $1,143.33	$111.89	+158.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$51.40 – $1,025.54	$105.63	+143.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$12.76 – $111.59	$57.78	+33.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$23.89 – $126.19	$66.70	+53.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$0.14 – $0.39	$26.05	-39.9%
EV/EBITDA	$32.09 – $116.68	$46.59	+7.5%
EV/Revenue	$126.59 – $171.29	$137.25	+216.7%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$129.59 – $129.59	$129.59	+199.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$39.95 – $79.74	$54.76	+26.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$24.36 – $64.51	$36.37	-16.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$111.89

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+158.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,172
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,089
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,290
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,551

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	9,586
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	14,327
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	97
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	13,540

Terminal Value						401,912
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	302,195

Enterprise Value	344,472
Projection Period	42,277	12.3%
Terminal Value	302,195	87.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712

Equity Value	296,760
(/) Outstanding Shares	2,652

Fair Price	$111.89

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$177	$225	$307	$485	$1143
4.9%	$118	$139	$168	$214	$292
5.9%	$86	$97	$112	$132	$160
6.9%	$66	$73	$81	$92	$106
7.9%	$52	$57	$62	$69	$77

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$105.63

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+143.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,526	20,329	21,109	21,860	22,576	23,141
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,164	4,335	4,502	4,662	4,815	4,935
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,087	14,091	14,371	14,673	15,174	15,553
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,777	38,756	39,981	41,194	42,565	43,629

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	9,763	10,165	10,555	10,930	11,288	11,570
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	14,591	15,192	15,774	16,335	16,871	17,293
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	394	385	374	360	344	352
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	13,028	13,014	13,279	13,569	14,062	14,414

Terminal Value											427,840
WACC / Discount Rate	5.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	9,521	8,983	8,657	8,356	8,180	241,876

Enterprise Value	327,850
Projection Period	85,974	26.2%
Terminal Value	241,876	73.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712

Equity Value	280,138
(/) Outstanding Shares	2,652

Fair Price	$105.63

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.9%	$175	$217	$290	$446	$1026
4.9%	$116	$134	$159	$197	$263
5.9%	$85	$94	$106	$122	$144
6.9%	$65	$70	$77	$85	$96
7.9%	$51	$55	$59	$64	$70

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$57.78

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+33.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BP p.l.c.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.9% to 1.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 54, DPO 102, DIO 55). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $57.78 per share, suggesting BP is undervalued by 33.3% at the current price of $43.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

5.62x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,172
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,089
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,290
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,551

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	—
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	—
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						5.6x
Terminal Value						211,036
WACC / Discount Rate	5.87%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	158,677

Enterprise Value	200,954
Projection Period	42,277	21.0%
Terminal Value	158,677	79.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712
Equity Value	153,242
(÷) Outstanding Shares	2652M
Fair Price	$58	+33.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	1.6x	3.6x	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x
3.9%	$18	$41	$65	$88	$112
4.9%	$17	$39	$61	$83	$106
5.9%	$15	$36	$58	$79	$100
6.9%	$14	$34	$55	$75	$95
7.9%	$13	$32	$52	$71	$90

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$66.69

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+53.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BP p.l.c.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.9% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 54, DPO 102, DIO 55). At a 5.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.70 per share, suggesting BP is undervalued by 53.9% at the current price of $43.34.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.87%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

5.62x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	19,498	18,457	19,087	18,507	18,705	19,526	20,329	21,109	21,860	22,576	23,141
(−) Net Interest	4,158	3,936	4,070	3,947	3,989	4,164	4,335	4,502	4,662	4,815	4,935
(+) D&A	13,158	13,895	14,239	14,235	13,941	14,087	14,091	14,371	14,673	15,174	15,553
EBITDA	36,814	36,288	37,396	36,688	36,635	37,777	38,756	39,981	41,194	42,565	43,629

(−) Tax	9,749	9,229	9,543	9,253	9,352	9,763	10,165	10,555	10,930	11,288	—
(−) CapEx	14,570	13,793	14,263	13,829	13,978	14,591	15,192	15,774	16,335	16,871	—
(−) ΔWC	16,069	-499	302	-278	95	394	385	374	360	344	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-3,575	13,766	13,288	13,884	13,210	13,028	13,014	13,279	13,569	14,062	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											5.6x
Terminal Value											245,196
WACC / Discount Rate	5.87%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-3,474	12,637	11,523	11,371	10,220	9,521	8,983	8,657	8,356	8,180	138,620

Enterprise Value	224,594
Projection Period	85,974	38.3%
Terminal Value	138,620	61.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	47,712
Equity Value	176,882
(÷) Outstanding Shares	2652M
Fair Price	$67	+53.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	1.6x	3.6x	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x
3.9%	$36	$59	$81	$104	$126
4.9%	$33	$53	$74	$94	$114
5.9%	$29	$48	$67	$85	$104
6.9%	$27	$44	$60	$77	$94
7.9%	$24	$39	$55	$70	$86

Current price: $43.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$26.05

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

-39.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), BP p.l.c. (BP) has a fair value of $26.05 based on 6 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry.

P/E Valuation — Oil & Gas Integrated

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
BP p.l.c.BP	114,945	2124.5x	8.4x
ConocoPhillipsCOP	138,727	17.9x	12.6x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR	131,014	6.5x	5.2x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR-A	120,318	6.0x	4.8x
Equinor ASAEQNR	93,006	18.8x	7.3x
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMB	89,218	34.1x	30.9x
Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD	80,396	14.0x	12.9x
Industry Median		16.0x	10.0x
(*) Profit after tax		55	13,747
Equity Value		878	137,285
(/) Outstanding shares		2,652	2,652
Fair Price		$0	$52

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$26.05

-39.9%

Fair Value

$46.59

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+7.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), BP p.l.c. (BP) has a fair value of $46.59 based on 6 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Integrated

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
BP p.l.c.BP	114,945	5.2x	4.6x
ConocoPhillipsCOP	138,727	6.7x	5.8x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR	131,014	4.5x	3.7x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR-A	120,318	4.3x	3.5x
Equinor ASAEQNR	93,006	3.3x	2.8x
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMB	89,218	16.0x	15.0x
Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD	80,396	11.5x	11.1x
Industry Median		5.6x	4.7x
(*) EBITDA		31,069	35,385
= Enterprise Value		174,623	167,908
(-) Net Debt		47,712	47,712
Equity Value		126,911	120,196
(/) Outstanding shares		2,652	2,652
Fair Price		$48	$45

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$46.59

+7.5%

Fair Value

$137.25

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+216.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), BP p.l.c. (BP) has a fair value of $137.25 based on 6 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Integrated

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
BP p.l.c.BP	114,945	0.9x	0.8x
ConocoPhillipsCOP	138,727	2.7x	2.3x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR	131,014	2.1x	1.7x
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasPBR-A	120,318	2.0x	1.7x
Equinor ASAEQNR	93,006	1.1x	1.0x
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMB	89,218	9.9x	9.3x
Enterprise Products Partners L.P.EPD	80,396	2.2x	2.1x
Industry Median		2.2x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		189,335	215,637
= Enterprise Value		408,203	415,260
(-) Net Debt		47,712	47,712
Equity Value		360,491	367,548
(/) Outstanding shares		2,652	2,652
Fair Price		$136	$139

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$137.25

+216.7%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$129.59

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+199.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.04Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 8.4 ÷ (185.4% + 4.5%) = 0.04

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	185.4%
Dividend Yield	+4.5%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$5.18
Fair Value	$129.59

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.02	—	—
FY2026E	$5.18	+25308.9%	6
FY2027E	$4.03	-22.2%	8
FY2028E	$3.96	-1.8%	6
FY2029E	$3.73	-5.8%	7
FY2030E	$3.86	+3.7%	7

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 185.4%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$7.6B	$2.24	—
FY2022	$-2.5B	$-0.79	-135.3%
FY2023	$15.2B	$5.15	—
FY2024	$381.0M	$0.14	-97.3%
FY2025	$55.0M	$0.02	-85.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -69.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$54.76

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

+26.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	11,324	11,324	11,324
(/) WACC	7.4%	5.9%	4.4%
Enterprise Value	153,676	192,952	259,198
(-) Net debt	47,712	47,712	47,712
Equity Value	105,964	145,240	211,486
(/) Outstanding shares	2,652	2,652	2,652
Fair Price	$39.95	$54.76	$79.74

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$36.37

Market Price

$43.34

Upside / Downside

-16.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.91

Dividend Yield

4.46%

Payout Ratio

9219.7%

Dividend Coverage

0.01x

FCF Payout Ratio44.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)10.7%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.91	9219.7%	+7.1%
2024	$1.78	1312.9%	+9.8%
2023	$1.63	31.6%	+18.0%
2022	$1.38	—	+8.1%
2021	$1.27	56.9%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.95	1.8%	0.9283	$1.81
2027	$1.98	1.8%	0.8617	$1.71
2028	$2.02	1.8%	0.7999	$1.61
2029	$2.05	1.8%	0.7426	$1.52
2030	$2.09	1.8%	0.6893	$1.44
Terminal Value	$2.14 DPS	2.5%		$28.28

PV of Projected Dividends$8.09

PV of Terminal Value$28.28

Fair Value per Share$36.37

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	0.0%	0.8%	1.8%	2.8%	3.8%
5.7%	$54	$56	$59	$62	$65
6.7%	$41	$43	$45	$47	$49
7.7%	$34	$35	$36	$38	$40
8.7%	$28	$29	$31	$32	$33
9.7%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$29