Ballard Power Systems Inc.

BLDP

IndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryNASDAQ

$4.13

Market Cap: $1.24B

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 01:55

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.39 – $0.62	$0.51	-87.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.14 – $1.27	$0.41	-90.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.01 – $2.80	$2.22	-46.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.41

Market Price

$4.13

Upside / Downside

-90.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -80.6% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) has an intrinsic value of $0.41 per share (range: $0.14 – $1.27).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-80.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

29.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

18.1%

D&A/Revenue

12.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	118	16.3%	-62.4%	-73	-73	14	(33)	44	-136	-131
2027	137	16.1%	-44.3%	-60	-60	16	(37)	16	-97	-86
2028	147	7.9%	-26.1%	-38	-38	18	(38)	9	-68	-55
2029	167	13.1%	-8.0%	-13	-13	20	(41)	16	-51	-38
2030	263	58.2%	10.2%	27	21	32	(62)	82	-91	-63
2031	263	-0.2%	10.2%	27	21	32	(59)	-0	-6	-4
2032	264	0.5%	10.2%	27	21	32	(56)	1	-4	-3
2033	267	1.1%	10.2%	27	22	32	(54)	2	-3	-2
2034	272	1.7%	10.2%	28	22	33	(52)	4	-1	-1
2035	278	2.4%	10.2%	28	22	34	(50)	5	0	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-381

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4

PV of Terminal Value2

Enterprise Value-379

(–) Net Debt-504

Equity Value125

(÷) Shares Outstanding303

Fair Value per Share$0.41

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.5%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
8.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
9.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
10.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $4.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 84.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.51

Market Price

$4.13

Upside / Downside

-87.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-80.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

29.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

18.1%

D&A/Revenue

12.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	118	16.3%	-62.4%	-73	-73	14	(32)	44	-135	-129
2027	137	16.1%	-44.3%	-60	-60	16	(34)	16	-94	-83
2028	147	7.9%	-26.1%	-38	-38	18	(33)	9	-63	-51
2029	167	13.1%	-8.0%	-13	-13	20	(34)	16	-43	-32
2030	263	58.2%	10.2%	27	21	32	(48)	82	-77	-53

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-349

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-349

(–) Net Debt-504

Equity Value155

(÷) Shares Outstanding303

Fair Value per Share$0.51

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.5%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
8.6%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
9.6%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
10.6%	$0	$1	$1	$1	$1

Current price: $4.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 84.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.22

Market Price

$4.13

Upside / Downside

-46.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) has a fair value of $2.22 based on 10 comparable companies in the Industrial - Machinery industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Machinery

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ballard Power Systems Inc.BLDP	1,251	7.4x	6.4x
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc.THR	2,147	4.5x	4.5x
The Gorman-Rupp CompanyGRC	2,041	3.4x	3.6x
Enviri CorporationNVRI	1,593	1.5x	1.6x
Allegiant Travel CompanyALGT	1,532	1.2x	1.3x
Redwire CorporationRDW	1,519	4.9x	5.7x
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSL	1,519	2.5x	2.5x
Astec Industries, Inc.ASTE	1,226	1.0x	1.1x
Global Industrial CompanyGIC	1,119	0.8x	0.9x
Limbach Holdings, Inc.LMB	855	1.4x	1.7x
Wheels Up Experience Inc.UP	240	0.4x	0.2x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		101	118
= Enterprise Value		145	193
(-) Net Debt		-504	-504
Equity Value		649	697
(/) Outstanding shares		303	303
Fair Price		$2	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$2.22

-46.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 01:55

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.39 – $0.62	$0.51	-87.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.14 – $1.27	$0.41	-90.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.01 – $2.80	$2.22	-46.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.41

Market Price

$4.13

Upside / Downside

-90.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-80.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

29.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

18.1%

D&A/Revenue

12.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	118	16.3%	-62.4%	-73	-73	14	(33)	44	-136	-131
2027	137	16.1%	-44.3%	-60	-60	16	(37)	16	-97	-86
2028	147	7.9%	-26.1%	-38	-38	18	(38)	9	-68	-55
2029	167	13.1%	-8.0%	-13	-13	20	(41)	16	-51	-38
2030	263	58.2%	10.2%	27	21	32	(62)	82	-91	-63
2031	263	-0.2%	10.2%	27	21	32	(59)	-0	-6	-4
2032	264	0.5%	10.2%	27	21	32	(56)	1	-4	-3
2033	267	1.1%	10.2%	27	22	32	(54)	2	-3	-2
2034	272	1.7%	10.2%	28	22	33	(52)	4	-1	-1
2035	278	2.4%	10.2%	28	22	34	(50)	5	0	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-381

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4

PV of Terminal Value2

Enterprise Value-379

(–) Net Debt-504

Equity Value125

(÷) Shares Outstanding303

Fair Value per Share$0.41

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.5%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
8.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
9.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
10.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $4.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 84.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.51

Market Price

$4.13

Upside / Downside

-87.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-80.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

29.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

18.1%

D&A/Revenue

12.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	118	16.3%	-62.4%	-73	-73	14	(32)	44	-135	-129
2027	137	16.1%	-44.3%	-60	-60	16	(34)	16	-94	-83
2028	147	7.9%	-26.1%	-38	-38	18	(33)	9	-63	-51
2029	167	13.1%	-8.0%	-13	-13	20	(34)	16	-43	-32
2030	263	58.2%	10.2%	27	21	32	(48)	82	-77	-53

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-349

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-349

(–) Net Debt-504

Equity Value155

(÷) Shares Outstanding303

Fair Value per Share$0.51

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.5%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
8.6%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
9.6%	$0	$0	$1	$1	$1
10.6%	$0	$1	$1	$1	$1

Current price: $4.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 84.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.22

Market Price

$4.13

Upside / Downside

-46.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Machinery

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ballard Power Systems Inc.BLDP	1,251	7.4x	6.4x
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc.THR	2,147	4.5x	4.5x
The Gorman-Rupp CompanyGRC	2,041	3.4x	3.6x
Enviri CorporationNVRI	1,593	1.5x	1.6x
Allegiant Travel CompanyALGT	1,532	1.2x	1.3x
Redwire CorporationRDW	1,519	4.9x	5.7x
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSL	1,519	2.5x	2.5x
Astec Industries, Inc.ASTE	1,226	1.0x	1.1x
Global Industrial CompanyGIC	1,119	0.8x	0.9x
Limbach Holdings, Inc.LMB	855	1.4x	1.7x
Wheels Up Experience Inc.UP	240	0.4x	0.2x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		101	118
= Enterprise Value		145	193
(-) Net Debt		-504	-504
Equity Value		649	697
(/) Outstanding shares		303	303
Fair Price		$2	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$2.22

-46.2%