Birks Group Inc.

BGI

Consumer CyclicalLuxury GoodsAMEX

$0.69

Market Cap: $13.52M

Birks Group Inc. (BGI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.45 – $25.03	$0.45	-40.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.16 – $27.37	$1.16	+53.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	-$2.43 – $4.71	$1.11	+46.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Birks Group Inc. (BGI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.16

Market Price

$0.69

Upside / Downside

+68.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -3.1% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.4%, Birks Group Inc. (BGI) has an intrinsic value of $1.16 per share (range: $1.16 – $27.37).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.1%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.7%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	139	5.3%	-0.9%	-1	-1	5	(6)	4	-6	-6
2027	146	5.1%	1.2%	2	2	5	(6)	3	-2	-2
2028	153	4.9%	3.4%	5	5	6	(7)	3	1	1
2029	160	4.6%	5.5%	9	9	6	(8)	3	5	4
2030	167	4.4%	7.7%	13	13	6	(8)	3	8	6
2031	174	4.2%	7.7%	13	13	6	(9)	3	8	6
2032	181	3.9%	7.7%	14	14	7	(10)	3	8	5
2033	187	3.7%	7.7%	14	14	7	(10)	3	8	5
2034	194	3.5%	7.7%	15	15	7	(11)	2	8	5
2035	200	3.2%	7.7%	15	15	7	(12)	2	8	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)28

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)199

PV of Terminal Value101

Enterprise Value129

(–) Net Debt106

Equity Value22

(÷) Shares Outstanding19

Fair Value per Share$1.16

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.4%	$-7	$-2	$8	$18	$27
6.4%	$-7	$-3	$3	$10	$17
7.4%	$-7	$-4	$1	$6	$12
8.4%	$-7	$-4	$-0	$4	$8
9.4%	$-7	$-5	$-1	$2	$6

Current price: $0.69. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 37.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Birks Group Inc. (BGI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.45

Market Price

$0.69

Upside / Downside

-34.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.1%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.7%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	138	5.2%	-0.9%	-1	-1	5	(6)	4	-6	-6
2027	145	4.7%	1.2%	2	2	5	(7)	2	-2	-2
2028	151	4.3%	3.4%	5	5	6	(8)	2	1	0
2029	157	3.9%	5.5%	9	9	6	(9)	2	4	3
2030	162	3.4%	7.7%	13	13	6	(10)	2	7	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)0

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)159

PV of Terminal Value115

Enterprise Value115

(–) Net Debt106

Equity Value9

(÷) Shares Outstanding19

Fair Value per Share$0.45

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.4%	$-7	$-3	$6	$16	$25
6.4%	$-7	$-4	$3	$9	$15
7.4%	$-7	$-4	$0	$5	$10
8.4%	$-7	$-5	$-1	$3	$7
9.4%	$-7	$-5	$-2	$2	$5

Current price: $0.69. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 37.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.11

Market Price

$0.69

Upside / Downside

+60.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Birks Group Inc. (BGI) has a fair value of $1.11 based on 6 comparable companies in the Luxury Goods industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Luxury Goods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Birks Group Inc.BGI	13	0.9x	—
High Roller Technologies, Inc.ROLR	32	1.5x	1.1x
Ark Restaurants Corp.ARKR	24	0.6x	1.3x
Millennium Group International Holdings LimitedMGIH	16	0.5x	—
JBDI Holdings LimitedJBDI	11	1.4x	—
Solo Brands, Inc.SBDS	6	0.0x	0.0x
Mixed Martial Arts Group LimitedMMA	5	10.0x	0.3x
Industry Median		1.0x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		132
= Enterprise Value		128
(-) Net Debt		106
Equity Value		21
(/) Outstanding shares		19
Fair Price		$1

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.45 – $25.03

$0.45

-40.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.16 – $27.37

$1.16

+53.4%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

-$2.43 – $4.71

$1.11

+46.1%

DCF Analysis

Birks Group Inc. (BGI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.16

Market Price

$0.69

Upside / Downside

+68.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.1%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.7%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	139	5.3%	-0.9%	-1	-1	5	(6)	4	-6	-6
2027	146	5.1%	1.2%	2	2	5	(6)	3	-2	-2
2028	153	4.9%	3.4%	5	5	6	(7)	3	1	1
2029	160	4.6%	5.5%	9	9	6	(8)	3	5	4
2030	167	4.4%	7.7%	13	13	6	(8)	3	8	6
2031	174	4.2%	7.7%	13	13	6	(9)	3	8	6
2032	181	3.9%	7.7%	14	14	7	(10)	3	8	5
2033	187	3.7%	7.7%	14	14	7	(10)	3	8	5
2034	194	3.5%	7.7%	15	15	7	(11)	2	8	5
2035	200	3.2%	7.7%	15	15	7	(12)	2	8	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)28

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)199

PV of Terminal Value101

Enterprise Value129

(–) Net Debt106

Equity Value22

(÷) Shares Outstanding19

Fair Value per Share$1.16

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.4%	$-7	$-2	$8	$18	$27
6.4%	$-7	$-3	$3	$10	$17
7.4%	$-7	$-4	$1	$6	$12
8.4%	$-7	$-4	$-0	$4	$8
9.4%	$-7	$-5	$-1	$2	$6

Current price: $0.69. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 37.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.11

Market Price

$0.69

Upside / Downside

+60.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Birks Group Inc. (BGI) has a fair value of $1.11 based on 6 comparable companies in the Luxury Goods industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Luxury Goods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Birks Group Inc.BGI	13	0.9x	—
High Roller Technologies, Inc.ROLR	32	1.5x	1.1x
Ark Restaurants Corp.ARKR	24	0.6x	1.3x
Millennium Group International Holdings LimitedMGIH	16	0.5x	—
JBDI Holdings LimitedJBDI	11	1.4x	—
Solo Brands, Inc.SBDS	6	0.0x	0.0x
Mixed Martial Arts Group LimitedMMA	5	10.0x	0.3x
Industry Median		1.0x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		132
= Enterprise Value		128
(-) Net Debt		106
Equity Value		21
(/) Outstanding shares		19
Fair Price		$1