Biodesix, Inc.

BDSX

HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchNASDAQ

$15.32

Market Cap: $115.68M

Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 08:55

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.07 – $44.36	$3.29	-78.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$8.34 – $150.89	$115.72	+655.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.29

Market Price

$15.32

Upside / Downside

-78.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -31.5% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.3%, Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) has an intrinsic value of $3.29 per share (range: $0.07 – $44.36).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-31.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

13.9%

D&A/Revenue

9.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	111	25.4%	-22.6%	-25	-25	10	(15)	5	-35	-33
2027	133	19.6%	-13.6%	-18	-18	12	(18)	2	-26	-22
2028	156	17.2%	-4.7%	-7	-7	14	(21)	2	-16	-13
2029	182	17.0%	4.3%	8	6	17	(25)	3	-4	-3
2030	198	8.7%	13.2%	26	21	18	(27)	2	11	7
2031	220	11.2%	13.2%	29	23	20	(30)	2	11	7
2032	241	9.6%	13.2%	32	25	22	(33)	2	12	7
2033	261	7.9%	13.2%	34	27	24	(36)	2	14	7
2034	277	6.3%	13.2%	37	29	26	(38)	2	15	7
2035	290	4.7%	13.2%	38	30	27	(40)	1	15	7

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-30

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)253

PV of Terminal Value109

Enterprise Value79

(–) Net Debt54

Equity Value25

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$3.29

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.3%	$-15	$-0	$15	$29	$44
8.3%	$-16	$-4	$8	$20	$32
9.3%	$-16	$-6	$3	$13	$23
10.3%	$-16	$-8	$0	$8	$17
11.3%	$-17	$-9	$-2	$5	$12

Current price: $15.32. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 9.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$115.72

Market Price

$15.32

Upside / Downside

+655.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) has a fair value of $115.72 based on 4 comparable companies in the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Biodesix, Inc.BDSX	116	1.9x	1.5x
Aligos Therapeutics, Inc.ALGS	40	12.3x	9.3x
VolitionRx LimitedVNRX	13	13.5x	13.3x
Inotiv, Inc.NOTV	10	1.0x	1.0x
Wellgistics Health, Inc.WGRX	6	1.3x	—
Industry Median		6.8x	9.3x
(*) Revenue		88	111
= Enterprise Value		601	1,255
(-) Net Debt		54	54
Equity Value		547	1,201
(/) Outstanding shares		8	8
Fair Price		$72	$159

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$115.72

+655.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.07 – $44.36

$3.29

-78.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$8.34 – $150.89

$115.72

+655.4%

DCF Analysis

Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.29

Market Price

$15.32

Upside / Downside

-78.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-31.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

13.9%

D&A/Revenue

9.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	111	25.4%	-22.6%	-25	-25	10	(15)	5	-35	-33
2027	133	19.6%	-13.6%	-18	-18	12	(18)	2	-26	-22
2028	156	17.2%	-4.7%	-7	-7	14	(21)	2	-16	-13
2029	182	17.0%	4.3%	8	6	17	(25)	3	-4	-3
2030	198	8.7%	13.2%	26	21	18	(27)	2	11	7
2031	220	11.2%	13.2%	29	23	20	(30)	2	11	7
2032	241	9.6%	13.2%	32	25	22	(33)	2	12	7
2033	261	7.9%	13.2%	34	27	24	(36)	2	14	7
2034	277	6.3%	13.2%	37	29	26	(38)	2	15	7
2035	290	4.7%	13.2%	38	30	27	(40)	1	15	7

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-30

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)253

PV of Terminal Value109

Enterprise Value79

(–) Net Debt54

Equity Value25

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$3.29

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.3%	$-15	$-0	$15	$29	$44
8.3%	$-16	$-4	$8	$20	$32
9.3%	$-16	$-6	$3	$13	$23
10.3%	$-16	$-8	$0	$8	$17
11.3%	$-17	$-9	$-2	$5	$12

Current price: $15.32. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 9.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$115.72

Market Price

$15.32

Upside / Downside

+655.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Biodesix, Inc.BDSX	116	1.9x	1.5x
Aligos Therapeutics, Inc.ALGS	40	12.3x	9.3x
VolitionRx LimitedVNRX	13	13.5x	13.3x
Inotiv, Inc.NOTV	10	1.0x	1.0x
Wellgistics Health, Inc.WGRX	6	1.3x	—
Industry Median		6.8x	9.3x
(*) Revenue		88	111
= Enterprise Value		601	1,255
(-) Net Debt		54	54
Equity Value		547	1,201
(/) Outstanding shares		8	8
Fair Price		$72	$159

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$115.72

+655.4%