Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to 3.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 246, DIO 283). At a 5.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $29.07 per share, suggesting AAP is overvalued by 41.0% at the current price of $49.26.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 111 | 118 | 120 | 123 | 127 | 130 |
| (−) Net Interest | 71 | 75 | 76 | 78 | 81 | 83 |
| (+) D&A | 270 | 258 | 227 | 233 | 248 | 254 |
| EBITDA | 452 | 450 | 424 | 434 | 455 | 467 |
| (−) Tax | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| (−) CapEx | 233 | 246 | 252 | 258 | 265 | 272 |
| (−) ΔWC | -70 | 55 | 26 | 23 | 33 | 34 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 264 | 123 | 119 | 125 | 128 | 131 |
| Terminal Value | 4,189 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.6% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 2.5% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 257 | 113 | 104 | 103 | 100 | 3,186 |
| Enterprise Value | 3,863 | |||||
| Projection Period | 676 | 17.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 3,186 | 82.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,101 | |||||
| Equity Value | 1,762 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 61 | |||||
| Fair Price | $29.07 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6% | $62 | $88 | $138 | $266 | $1419 |
| 4.6% | $32 | $42 | $58 | $83 | $130 |
| 5.6% | $16 | $22 | $29 | $39 | $54 |
| 6.6% | $7 | $10 | $14 | $20 | $26 |
| 7.6% | $1 | $3 | $5 | $8 | $12 |
Current price: $49.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to 1.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 246, DIO 283). At a 5.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (71% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $36.72 per share, suggesting AAP is overvalued by 25.5% at the current price of $49.26.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 111 | 118 | 120 | 123 | 127 | 131 | 127 | 125 | 125 | 127 | 130 |
| (−) Net Interest | 71 | 75 | 76 | 78 | 81 | 83 | 80 | 79 | 79 | 80 | 82 |
| (+) D&A | 270 | 258 | 227 | 233 | 248 | 251 | 259 | 263 | 265 | 265 | 272 |
| EBITDA | 452 | 450 | 424 | 434 | 455 | 464 | 466 | 467 | 469 | 473 | 484 |
| (−) Tax | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| (−) CapEx | 233 | 246 | 252 | 258 | 265 | 273 | 265 | 261 | 261 | 265 | 272 |
| (−) ΔWC | -70 | 55 | 26 | 23 | 33 | 33 | -34 | -17 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 264 | 123 | 119 | 125 | 128 | 128 | 206 | 194 | 179 | 162 | 166 |
| Terminal Value | 5,312 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.6% | ||||||||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 2.5% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 257 | 113 | 104 | 103 | 100 | 95 | 145 | 129 | 112 | 96 | 3,073 |
| Enterprise Value | 4,326 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 1,253 | 29.0% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 3,073 | 71.0% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,101 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 2,225 | ||||||||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 61 | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $36.72 | ||||||||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6% | $78 | $106 | $158 | $295 | $1519 |
| 4.6% | $43 | $53 | $69 | $94 | $142 |
| 5.6% | $24 | $30 | $37 | $46 | $61 |
| 6.6% | $13 | $16 | $20 | $25 | $31 |
| 7.6% | $6 | $8 | $10 | $13 | $16 |
Current price: $49.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to 3.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 246, DIO 283). At a 5.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $47.68 per share, suggesting AAP is fairly valued by 3.2% at the current price of $49.26.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 111 | 118 | 120 | 123 | 127 | 130 |
| (−) Net Interest | 71 | 75 | 76 | 78 | 81 | 83 |
| (+) D&A | 270 | 258 | 227 | 233 | 248 | 254 |
| EBITDA | 452 | 450 | 424 | 434 | 455 | 467 |
| (−) Tax | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 233 | 246 | 252 | 258 | 265 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -70 | 55 | 26 | 23 | 33 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 264 | 123 | 119 | 125 | 128 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 5,672 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.63% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 257 | 113 | 104 | 103 | 100 | 4,314 |
| Enterprise Value | 4,990 | |||||
| Projection Period | 676 | 13.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 4,314 | 86.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,101 | |||||
| Equity Value | 2,889 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 61M | |||||
| Fair Price | $48 | -3.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.1x | 10.1x | 12.1x | 14.1x | 16.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6% | $29 | $42 | $55 | $68 | $81 |
| 4.6% | $27 | $39 | $51 | $64 | $76 |
| 5.6% | $24 | $36 | $48 | $59 | $71 |
| 6.6% | $22 | $33 | $44 | $55 | $67 |
| 7.6% | $20 | $30 | $41 | $52 | $62 |
Current price: $49.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.0% to 1.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 246, DIO 283). At a 5.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $42.19 per share, suggesting AAP is fairly valued by 14.4% at the current price of $49.26.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 111 | 118 | 120 | 123 | 127 | 131 | 127 | 125 | 125 | 127 | 130 |
| (−) Net Interest | 71 | 75 | 76 | 78 | 81 | 83 | 80 | 79 | 79 | 80 | 82 |
| (+) D&A | 270 | 258 | 227 | 233 | 248 | 251 | 259 | 263 | 265 | 265 | 272 |
| EBITDA | 452 | 450 | 424 | 434 | 455 | 464 | 466 | 467 | 469 | 473 | 484 |
| (−) Tax | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 29 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 233 | 246 | 252 | 258 | 265 | 273 | 265 | 261 | 261 | 265 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -70 | 55 | 26 | 23 | 33 | 33 | -34 | -17 | 0 | 17 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 264 | 123 | 119 | 125 | 128 | 128 | 206 | 194 | 179 | 162 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.2x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 5,885 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.63% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 257 | 113 | 104 | 103 | 100 | 95 | 145 | 129 | 112 | 96 | 3,405 |
| Enterprise Value | 4,658 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 1,253 | 26.9% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 3,405 | 73.1% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,101 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 2,557 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 61M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $42 | -14.3% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.1x | 10.1x | 12.1x | 14.1x | 16.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6% | $34 | $45 | $56 | $67 | $78 |
| 4.6% | $28 | $39 | $49 | $59 | $69 |
| 5.6% | $24 | $33 | $42 | $51 | $61 |
| 6.6% | $19 | $28 | $36 | $45 | $53 |
| 7.6% | $16 | $23 | $31 | $39 | $46 |
Current price: $49.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) has a fair value of $26.69 based on 7 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP | 2,985 | 67.5x | 17.8x |
| Victoria's Secret & Co. | 4,163 | 26.8x | 21.9x |
| Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 3,509 | 9.8x | 9.3x |
| Columbia Sportswear Company | 3,198 | 18.9x | 19.2x |
| Visteon Corporation | 2,946 | 15.2x | 12.8x |
| The Buckle, Inc. | 2,912 | 13.7x | 15.1x |
| American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 2,895 | 15.9x | 10.2x |
| Rh | 2,504 | 21.1x | 23.0x |
| Industry Median | 15.9x | 15.1x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 44 | 168 | |
| Equity Value | 701 | 2,533 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 61 | 61 | |
| Fair Price | $12 | $42 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) has a fair value of $30.49 based on 8 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP | 2,985 | 15.9x | 16.0x |
| Victoria's Secret & Co. | 4,163 | 21.9x | 23.1x |
| Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 3,509 | 8.0x | 7.9x |
| Columbia Sportswear Company | 3,198 | 12.6x | 12.8x |
| Visteon Corporation | 2,946 | 6.0x | 6.0x |
| The Buckle, Inc. | 2,912 | 11.7x | 12.4x |
| American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 2,895 | 8.1x | 8.4x |
| Rh | 2,504 | 16.6x | 17.9x |
| Peloton Interactive, Inc. | 2,155 | 28.5x | 29.2x |
| Industry Median | 12.1x | 12.6x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 320 | 318 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 3,888 | 4,010 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,101 | 2,101 | |
| Equity Value | 1,787 | 1,909 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 61 | 61 | |
| Fair Price | $29 | $31 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) has a fair value of $130.15 based on 10 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP | 2,985 | 0.6x | 0.6x |
| Victoria's Secret & Co. | 4,163 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 3,509 | 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Columbia Sportswear Company | 3,198 | 1.1x | 1.1x |
| Visteon Corporation | 2,946 | 0.7x | 0.7x |
| The Buckle, Inc. | 2,912 | 2.3x | 2.5x |
| American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 2,895 | 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Rh | 2,504 | 1.9x | 2.0x |
| Peloton Interactive, Inc. | 2,155 | 1.2x | 1.3x |
| Driven Brands Holdings Inc. | 2,067 | 2.5x | 3.1x |
| Six Flags Entertainment Corporation | 1,854 | 2.3x | 2.4x |
| Industry Median | 1.2x | 1.2x | |
| (*) Revenue | 8,601 | 8,551 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 9,924 | 10,052 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,101 | 2,101 | |
| Equity Value | 7,823 | 7,951 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 61 | 61 | |
| Fair Price | $129 | $131 | |
Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 1.8% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $68.90 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $2.76. The current PEG ratio is 0.54.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 36.0% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2027) | $2.76 |
| Fair Value | $68.90 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $0.73 | — | — |
| FY2027E | $2.76 | +277.5% | 17 |
| FY2028E | $3.95 | +43.4% | 17 |
| FY2029E | $4.81 | +21.6% | 8 |
| FY2030E | $4.34 | -9.6% | 7 |
| FY2031E | $4.62 | +6.2% | 6 |
6Y Forward EPS CAGR: 36.0%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $596.6M | $9.55 | — |
| FY2022 | $464.4M | $7.65 | -19.9% |
| FY2023 | $30.0M | $0.50 | -93.5% |
| FY2024 | $-336.0M | $-5.63 | -1226.0% |
| FY2025 | $44.0M | $0.73 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -47.4%
Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 5.6% and normalized earnings of $150.0M, the company has a fair value of $9.33 per share. The EPV range is $0.07 – $25.32 based on WACC sensitivity (4.1% – 7.1%).
| Low | Selected | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | 150 | 150 | 150 |
| (/) WACC | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
| Enterprise Value | 2,105 | 2,666 | 3,636 |
| (-) Net debt | 2,101 | 2,101 | 2,101 |
| Equity Value | 4 | 565 | 1,535 |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| Fair Price | $0.07 | $9.33 | $25.32 |
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 11.0% and projected dividend growth of 0.0%, the fair value is $10.73 per share. The DDM range is $8.72 – $15.24 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.99 | 136.4% | -1.3% |
| 2024 | $1.00 | — | -71.4% |
| 2023 | $3.51 | 697.6% | -36.6% |
| 2022 | $5.54 | 72.4% | +122.0% |
| 2021 | $2.49 | 27.0% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0.9008 | $0.89 |
| 2027 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0.8114 | $0.80 |
| 2028 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0.7309 | $0.72 |
| 2029 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0.6584 | $0.65 |
| 2030 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0.5930 | $0.59 |
| Terminal Value | $1.01 DPS | 2.5% | $7.07 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $14 | $14 | $14 | $15 | $15 |
| 10.0% | $12 | $12 | $12 | $13 | $13 |
| 11.0% | $11 | $11 | $11 | $11 | $12 |
| 12.0% | $10 | $10 | $10 | $10 | $10 |
| 13.0% | $9 | $9 | $9 | $9 | $9 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.